Jake's Picks - MLB Tuesday April 14th

[JakeT.]

Overall Record: 20-16 +3.71

Favorites: 4-8 -5.68
Underdogs: 9-5 +6.34
Overs: 5-1 +4.1
Unders: 2-2 -.05
Parlay: 0-1 -1

Very bad day yesterday. Looks like I need to stay away from the favorites because they are hurting me this year. Plays coming soon.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Gl today Jake on whatever you play. Those favs are killing you.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Mariners Pk, O10 -116
Braves -115, U9 -118
Yankees -110, U9 -116

Bets:

Mariners/Angels Over 9.5 +111
Pitchers: Silva/Loux

Carlos Silva and Shane Loux should not be anywhere near a major league mound as anything more then spot relievers. They simply don't have it anymore and both are good to give up runs.

Florida Marlins +140
Pitchers: Volstad/Vazquez

Chris Volstad has legit #1 stuff and is one guy I'm very high on this season. Vazquez is nothing special and the Marlins should be able to hit him while I'm not sure Atlanta can touch Volstad.

New York Yankees +104
Pitchers: Burnett/Garza

Burnett has dominated the Rays on multiple occasions in Tampa and I don't see the home team scoring many runs. Matt Garza is a very good pitcher but the Yankees but Big Tex back in the lineup and hit him well enough to deserve not to be an underdog here.

 

[JakeT.]

Changed the price on the Mariners/Angels over. I keep forgetting to check 5Dimes for the reduced juice totals before posting. Now has the right line at 6 cents better.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Brewers -160, O9.5 -117
Texas -180, O10.5 -115

Bets:

Brewers -133 1st 5 innings
Brewers/Reds Over 9 -107
Pitchers: Parra/Arroyo

Manny Parra always seem to break down late in the games so I am playing Milwaukee for the 1st 5 and expect quite a few runs from both sides late in the game. Arroyo is on the back end of his career and should give up quite a few.

Texas Rangers -1.5 +115
Pitchers: Simon/McCarthy

Rangers are mashing at home and Simon is not a MLB-level pitcher. The guy had a 6.00 ERA in AAA and hasn't had any success above the A level in his career. Look for Texas to destroy him.

 

[barman]

GL with Yankees....I have nagging feeling that the Rays could threaten 60 wins at home this season. The lineup is bulletproof compared to last season's Apr/early May when Iwamura, Bartlett and Pena were limp and Navarro was out injured

Meanwhile, the starting staff hints at being once again filthy in Home starts.....

And of course, the Yankees suck monkeys

 

[barman]

Do agree that Rangers are a fair bet to mash at Home

 

[JakeT.]

GL with Yankees....I have nagging feeling that the Rays could threaten 60 wins at home this season. The lineup is bulletproof compared to last season's Apr/early May when Iwamura, Bartlett and Pena were limp and Navarro was out injured

Meanwhile, the starting staff hints at being once again filthy in Home starts.....

And of course, the Yankees suck monkeys

Rays are a very complete team in all facets but I think New York has the better offense and a better starting pitcher matchup here. Gotta like them as dogs.

 

[JakeT.]

Do agree that Rangers are a fair bet to mash at Home

It would surprise me if Simon makes it past the 4th inning.

3.1 IP, 8 hits, 3 walks, 7 earned runs

Sounds about right.

 

[Vince_Carter]

too lazy to cap any of the games today so i'm just tailing most of your picks

brewers 1st 5 just jumped to -136 from -133 haha that must have been you

 

[JakeT.]

too lazy to cap any of the games today so i'm just tailing most of your picks

brewers 1st 5 just jumped to -136 from -133 haha that must have been you

Haha maybe if you multiply my bet by 100 I'd move the line a cent. Best of luck today Vinny. :toast:

 

[Vince_Carter]

haha bol to you too, jake

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Twins -135, 9 Pk
Royals -115, O9.5 -112
Cards -180, U8 -120

Cleveland Indians +125
Pitchers: Pavano/Davies

I might be a moron for betting on Carl Pavano... Royals can't hit anyone right now and Davies doesn't impress me. This game is simply a value bet I suppose.

St Louis Cardinals -126 2 UNIT PLAY
Cards/DBacks Under 8.5 +110
Pitchers: Carpenter/Scherzer

The Cardinals are not going to touch Carpenter at all. Scherzer is coming back from injury and if he was healthy this under would be a 2 unit play as well. The young prospect should do well enough to keep this under.

 

[JakeT.]

That's the card. I'm laying off Boston games for a few days until I can figure out if that team is going to hit or not.

 

[Hamboner0182]

I like the card. Just dont underestimate Davies for KC. He mowed down the white sox in the first start, while he usually isnt dominating, he has only allowed more than 4 ER once in his last 15 starts and allowed more than 4 hits once in his last 6 starts. At home hes pretty good. The royals are improved but still have thr worst lineup in the AL central.

GL tonight!

 

[greatfulted]

Good luck tonight brother

 

[JakeT.]

I like the card. Just dont underestimate Davies for KC. He mowed down the white sox in the first start, while he usually isnt dominating, he has only allowed more than 4 ER once in his last 15 starts and allowed more than 4 hits once in his last 6 starts. At home hes pretty good. The royals are improved but still have thr worst lineup in the AL central.

GL tonight!

Davies throws extremely well at times but I think Cleveland's offense is strong enough to put runs on the board here. Pavano is hard to figure out but KC isn't hitting well. GL to you today as well.

 

[JakeT.]

Good luck tonight brother

Back at ya. :toast:

 

[JakeT.]

Wow. What a crap day. Texas knocks the starter out after just 1.1 innings and then the crappy Oriole bullpen shuts them completely down. Chris Carpenter leaves after 3 innings with an injury. Cleveland bullpen allows 5 in the 8th. Nothing is going right.

 

[Bennyshoe]

Damn then STL bullpen can't hold the lead