Jake's Picks - MLB Monday April 6th

[JakeT.]

Will update record after Sunday's Atlanta +120 bet is finished.

My lines:

Mets -140, O8 -115
Indians -115, O9.5 -115
ChW -145, O8 -110
RedSox -150, U8.5 -115
Zona -170, U8 -120

Actual lines:

Mets -157, O7.5 +100
Indians -127, O9.5 -110
ChW -140, O8 -105
RedSox -145, U8.5 -105
Zona -165, U7.5 -110

Bets:

Reds +147
Reds/Mets Over 7.5 +100
Pitchers: Santana/Harang

Santana struggled in this small Cincy ballpark last season and the Reds are stronger then last season. Harang has an average history against the Mets. Both guys will give up some runs and the value is on the Reds here in their home opener.

Rangers +117
Pitchers: Lee/Millwood

Cliff Lee has an ERA near 13 in spring ball and something is just off with him. He had issues last year in Texas when he was on his game and this offense should get to him. Millwood is a solid enough pitcher but the real reason I like this bet has to do with Lee's struggles.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Yankees -180, U9 -120
Marlins -140, U8 -120
Cards -150, U8 -115
Houston -115, U8 -110


Actual lines:

Yankees -185, U8.5 +100
Marlins -161, U8 -110
Cards -185, U8 -110
Houston -105, U8 -115

Bets:

Washington Nationals +151
Pitchers: Lannan/Nolasco

The Marlins didn't hit lefties at all last year and Lannan is a guy who can control that lineup. Washington's offense should be a ton better then last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates +170
Pitchers: Maholm/Wainwright

Maholm has dominated the Cardinals over the years and Wainwright struggled a bit against the Pirates in his 2 starts last year. At +170 you have to like weak-hitting Pittsburgh.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Padres -140, U7 -120
Jays -160, 8 Pk
Minnesota -130, U7.5 -115
Angels -150, U8.5 -112

Actual lines:

Padres -131, U6.5 +100
Jays -148, O7.5 -115
Minnesota -150, U7.5 -115
Angels -148, U8.5 -115

Bets:

Seattle Mariners +140
Pitchers: Felix/Liriano

Both lineups are down with Ichiro and Mauer out and both pitchers can dominate if they are on. Too much value too pass up.

 

[tatehill2000]

My lines:

Yankees -180, U9 -120
Marlins -140, U8 -120
Cards -150, U8 -115
Houston -115, U8 -110


Actual lines:

Yankees -185, U8.5 +100
Marlins -161, U8 -110
Cards -185, U8 -110
Houston -105, U8 -115

Bets:

Washington Nationals +151
Pitchers: Lannan/Nolasco

The Marlins didn't hit lefties at all last year and Lannan is a guy who can control that lineup. Washington's offense should be a ton better then last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates +170
Pitchers: Maholm/Wainwright

Maholm has dominated the Cardinals over the years and Wainwright struggled a bit against the Pirates in his 2 starts last year. At +170 you have to like weak-hitting Pittsburgh.

Nice, I am ON Pitt like its a tit,,, lol,, +1.5 for me!!

good luck Jake!!
tater

 

[Green17]

Jake:
Are these all equal unit plays?
I believe last season you had specified units for each play.
Thanks.

 

[JakeT.]

Jake:
Are these all equal unit plays?
I believe last season you had specified units for each play.
Thanks.

97-98% of my plays are for a flat-rate with 2-3% being double that. That's as high as I go and I personally consider most variations of that reckless money management.

 

[Gumbi]

gl this season Jake. Did you cap baseball last year?

 

[Gumbi]

Will update record after Sunday's Atlanta +120 bet is finished.

My lines:

Mets -140, O8 -115
Indians -115, O9.5 -115
ChW -145, O8 -110
RedSox -150, U8.5 -115
Zona -170, U8 -120

Actual lines:

Mets -157, O7.5 +100
Indians -127, O9.5 -110
ChW -140, O8 -105
RedSox -145, U8.5 -105
Zona -165, U7.5 -110

Bets:

Reds +147
Reds/Mets Over 7.5 +100
Pitchers: Santana/Harang

Santana struggled in this small Cincy ballpark last season and the Reds are stronger then last season. Harang has an average history against the Mets. Both guys will give up some runs and the value is on the Reds here in their home opener.

Rangers +117
Pitchers: Lee/Millwood

Cliff Lee has an ERA near 13 in spring ball and something is just off with him. He had issues last year in Texas when he was on his game and this offense should get to him. Millwood is a solid enough pitcher but the real reason I like this bet has to do with Lee's struggles.

The temp at the reds game will be in the mid 40's with high winds. Does this deter you from the over or are you still confident in this play?

 

[JakeT.]

The temp at the reds game will be in the mid 40's with high winds. Does this deter you from the over or are you still confident in this play?

I'd prefer it were warmer but it's still a decent bet.

 

[JakeT.]

For anyone who wants to get in early... line movements like this on my bets are fairly normal.

I have Seattle +140, now it's +123.
Texas +117, now +100.
Washington +151, now +135.
Pitt +170, now +154.
Cincy +147, now +137.
Cincy Over 7.5 +100, now -105.

Anyway, for those who want to play both sides it might be worth noting.

Good luck to everyone today.

 

[CalvinTy]

I had already decided on Reds and Pirates, so let's hope we cash at the window today!

* CalvinTy

 

[greatfulted]

Good luck this year JT

 

[JakeT.]

Record: 1-0 +1.2

 

[JakeT.]

I had already decided on Reds and Pirates, so let's hope we cash at the window today!

* CalvinTy

Good to have you on the same side Calvin. Best of luck this season.

 

[JakeT.]

Good luck this year JT

Thanks man and best of luck to you as well.

 

[3ptbuy]

BOL Jake T. with your season

 

[DFoster]

We are on a lot of the same sides here...all but the Reds. I took the Mets -1.5 but have the over as well. Good luck today!

 

[JakeT.]

BOL Jake T. with your season

Thanks man. Hoping it's the most profitable one yet. :toast:

 

[JakeT.]

We are on a lot of the same sides here...all but the Reds. I took the Mets -1.5 but have the over as well. Good luck today!

I'll take a loss on the Reds if the others sweep haha. Good luck this season.

 

[crazyivan]

Hey JAKE THOMPSON, good luck this season dude! You still poker?