Jake's Picks - MLB Friday April 10th

[JakeT.]

Record as of 4/8 with 2 games pending for 4/9.

Yesterday: 6-4 +1.28

Overall Record: 16-9 +8.45

Favorites: 4-4 -.77
Underdogs: 7-3 +6.22
Overs: 3-1 +2.05
Unders: 2-1 +.95

My lines and picks coming soon.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Tigers -140, O10.5 -122
Indians -145, U9.5 -112
Cubs -150, U8 -115

Bets:

Tigers/Rangers Over 10 -105
Pitchers: Benson/Galarraga

Benson is past his prime and will give up runs and the Texas bullpen will be good for a few more on top of that. Detroit's pen is also horrible and Galarraga is a guy who gives up a ton of home runs and he is facing one of the hottest HR-hitting offenses in the league.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Phillies -160, U9 -122
Yankees -180, 9.5 Pk
Rays -130, U10 -119

Bets:

Parlay: Risking 1 to win 2.34
Philies -141, Phillies Under 9.5 -105
Pitchers: Hamels/Marquis

Parlayed it because I just had a bad feeling even though my lines suggested a play. If Hamels is not held back by his recent injury, this is extremely likely to stay under. Figured I'd parlay them. Marquis should give up a few runs but is solid enough not to get rocked. 5-3 Phillies is what I'm thinking.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Reds -140, U10 -108
Fins -120, U9 -116
Braves -200, U8.5 -120

Bets:

Florida Marlins +102
Pitchers: Sanchez/Maine

Florida's bats are extremely hot right now and Sanchez has #1 stuff. Gotta play em at home.

Washington Nationals +190
Pitchers: Martis/Lowe

The Nationals have a decent offense right now and Martis is a good prospect who limited the Braves last season. Chipper is dinged and may miss as well. Good value.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

White Sox -170, O9.5 -125
Cards -145, O9.5 -112
DBacks -110, 8.5 Pk

Laying off the Arizona/Dodger under. Not sure what Garland has left and MacDonald should pitch well but he's a wild card too. I just don't feel comfortable playing anything.

Bets:

White Sox/Twins Over 9.5 +105
Pitchers: Contreras/Dickey

Dickey gives up too many HRs and his knuckler is almost never working properly. Chicago should send a few balls out of the stadium. Contreras has seen better days and doesn't have much to offer the Twins anymore. Both teams should score.

 

[JakeT.]

My lines:

Giants -160, U8 -115
Red Sox -140, O10.5 -115
Mariners -120, 8 Pk

Bets:

San Francisco Giants -137
Pitchers: Zito/Hill

The Padres can't hit anyone and Zito has dominated them in the past. Even when he was struggling last season he still dominated most of the time against San Diego. Shawn Hill is a solid pitcher but he's not healthy and won't go more then a few innings if he doesn't get yanked first. Gotta like the Giants.

Boston Red Sox -109
Boston/Angels Over 9 -110
Pitchers: Wakefield/Loux

Wakefield has struggled agianst the Angels in the past and will give up runs but there is no way he is worse then Shane Loux. There is a reason Loux hasn't started a game since 2003 and Boston should knock him out of the game early and even a below average Wakefield outing should get the job done.

 

[JakeT.]

That's the card folks. Best of luck to everyone.

 

[seanm0520]

Really like Philly & Boston. GL!

 

[XPike21X]

I see Weaver going for LAA

 

[JakeT.]

I see Weaver going for LAA

Damn you are right. Covers lied to me about the matchups with the game getting canceled today. I guess that is why the lines were off so much. I bet the thing anyway because I'm a moron that missed the pitching change so I guess I'll hope for the best.

 

[JakeT.]

Really like Philly & Boston. GL!

Good luck on Friday. :toast:

 

[3ptbuy]

BOL Jake T.

 

[JakeT.]

You as well 3ptbuy.

Updated record... First losing day of the year.

Yesterday: 1-1 -.01

Overall Record: 17-10 +8.44

Favorites: 5-5 -.78
Underdogs: 7-3 +6.22
Overs: 3-1 +2.05
Unders: 2-1 +.95

 

[MackDonald]

Good luck with your selections today "Big Jake".

 

[meaculpa]

well, winning days are better obviously, but a losing day of -0.01 unit isn't that deadly

Are the Bosox and the over in that game still picks? (guessed not due to big change in pitchers but just in case)

 

[NYStateOfMind]

well, winning days are better obviously, but a losing day of -0.01 unit isn't that deadly

Are the Bosox and the over in that game still picks? (guessed not due to big change in pitchers but just in case)

The Bosox managed to score three in the game against Matt Garza, and while Weaver is not in the category Matt Garza is in, he is essentially Matt Garza with a weaker fastball (thrown 13% less often) and a slightly better changup(thrown 9% more often). I expect the Red Sox still hold some value based on the where the line is (red sox are usually much more expensive to play), but I would be wary of the over. Like how your doing so far Jake T. You've really worked in the information you've learned from completing your database.

 

[JakeT.]

Good luck with your selections today "Big Jake".

Thanks Mack. You as well. No bridge this year.

 

[JakeT.]

Anibal Sanchez was not impressive in Spring Training, take it for what it's worth. He was battling Andrew Miller for the 4/5 spot throughout and frankly I didn't see much difference between the two. He has not been the same since coming back from surgery.

I personally stopped putting much stock into the spring. This guy has two awesome pitches and when he commands them he can out-pitch anyone. I think he'll do very well. Best of luck today.

 

[JakeT.]

well, winning days are better obviously, but a losing day of -0.01 unit isn't that deadly

Are the Bosox and the over in that game still picks? (guessed not due to big change in pitchers but just in case)

Haha yeah I can't be too mad at the -.01 for the first losing day of the year. I'm kinda scared about today's card with the lines moving against me for the first time this season. 7 runs in the 1st 4 innings of the Tigers game will hopefully get me off to a 1-0 start at least.

I'd probably lay off both Boston and the Over with Weaver in there but since I already placed both bets I'll count them in my official record win or lose.

 

[JakeT.]

The Bosox managed to score three in the game against Matt Garza, and while Weaver is not in the category Matt Garza is in, he is essentially Matt Garza with a weaker fastball (thrown 13% less often) and a slightly better changup(thrown 9% more often). I expect the Red Sox still hold some value based on the where the line is (red sox are usually much more expensive to play), but I would be wary of the over. Like how your doing so far Jake T. You've really worked in the information you've learned from completing your database.

Good information right there and I think the database will be a ton more valuable in a week or two once we see how teams are doing against certain guys. How's your season going man?