Jake's Picks - July 9th

[JakeT.]

It's been a horrible stretch for us all lately, but today should be a better one. The picks are:

Tampa Bay +190
Pitchers: Kennedy/Lilly
Both lefties who have struggled lately. TB hits lefties much better than Oakland, and TB has been hitting much better lately, as well as winning more.

 

[JakeT.]

Detroit +182
Pitchers: Colon/Bonderman
Lately, Bonderman has been pitching every bit as good as Colon. Hitting is about even, so this game is worth a shot with Detroit playing at home.

 

[JakeT.]

Detroit/CHW Under 7.5 +105
Pitchers: Bonderman/Colon
A pitcher's park with two hot pitchers and two offenses that don't impress me in their matchups today.

 

[JakeT.]

Cleveland +128
Pitchers: Sabathia/Wells
Cleveland hits lefties as well as the Yankees, and the Yankees may be without Soriano, Jeter, and Mondesi for this one. Sabathia has outpitched Wells as of late, and the Indians are at home. I like this one.

 

[JakeT.]

Montreal +129
Pitchers: Millwood/Ohka
Ohka has better stats his last 3 starts, and Montreal is hitting much better than Philly. The Expos have been tough at Olympic Stadium this year, and should be right in this game.

 

[TheSnake]

I agree with Detriot and under but your reasoning on the other two are way off. Soriano is the only one out and Sabathia is like 1 -7 against the Yanks.

 

[JakeT.]

Texas/Minnesota Over 10.5 -115
Pitchers: Benoit/Rogers
Neither of the pitchers really impress me, and both squads are hitting well. I wouldn't be surprised to see one squad get close to 10 runs by themselves.

 

[JakeT.]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by The Snake:
I agree with Detriot and under but your reasoning on the other two are way off. Soriano is the only one out and Sabathia is like 1 -7 against the Yanks.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Jeter and Mondesi are both listed as day-to-day so I wasn't sure. Either way, Sabathia is on a tear and I don't really put much into past performances when capping unless they were during the current season. The Yanks couldn't touch Traber, so the hotter Sabathia should do well in my opinion. Good luck today and thanks for the input and injury update.

 

[JakeT.]

Pittsburgh/Milwaukee Over 9.5 -117
Pitchers: Benson/Rusch
Rusch is garbage, Benson has had two good starts in a row but most of the time he has been rocked this year. Both teams are hitting great. Over in Milwaukee has hit a deciding percentage of the time.

 

[MadCapper]

so why did you play the under?

-MC

 

[tuck321]

I am actually playing Minn under 10.5 plus 11 cents. Reasons vary. Rogers last 6 at Texas under is 5-1. Strong under ump. Texas lost a hiter yesterday batting 350 and recently Texas bull pen has been iron. GL

 

[JakeT.]

Cincinnati/Houston Under 9.5 +101
2 Unit
Pitchers: Graves/Robertson
Both pitchers have been excellent lately, and both teams are hitting extremely poorly. Houston is hitting a whopping .217 their last 10 games, and Cincy has scored an equally amazing 13 runs their past 5 games. To make it worse for Cincy, they are facing a tough lefty and are one of the worst lefty hitting teams at just a .236 clip. Sean Casey may miss as well. These exact teams and pitchers met earlier this season to combine on a 6-run game. As much as you think of Houston as a hitters' park, the under has won in over 50% of the games there.

 

[tuck321]

Incidently, I agree with your reasoning on Tampa and am still considering Detroit but why no KC?

 

[JakeT.]

Thanks for the input tuck. The more info the better. I just like the over mainly because of Benoit. He has struggled and rarely goes past 6 innings. Minny is hitting pretty well right now so I'll take my chances. Good luck on your plays, and thanks for chiming in.

 

[JakeT.]

STL/LA Under 8.5 -105
Pitchers: Tomko/Ishii
LA can't hit at all lately, and Tomko has had four straight excellent starts. The Cardinals hit lefties really well, but Ishii has destroyed about everyone this year, including a game at Coors in which he beat up the Rocks who just crush lefties there. STL has scored just 13 runs in it's past 4 games, and I like the under with the wind blowing in at 7-12 MPH.

 

[JakeT.]

LA +130
Pitchers: Ishii/Tomko
I really did not want to take the Dodgers, as they are hitting like absolute trash, but Ishii has dominated everyone all year and the Dodger pen is golden. At this price, there's value.

 

[JakeT.]

Colorado +110
Pitchers: Cook/Foppert
Foppert has completely fallen apart lately. He has been lucky to get to the fifth inning in his last few starts. Cook isn't great but he's pitched well at Coors, and the Rockies are 31-15 at home this year. Gotta take the home dog with the better pitcher.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Strong card here, good luck with it.

 

[JakeT.]

Thanks Patrick. Good luck to you as always.

SD +130
Pitchers: Peavy/Capuano
Peavy is a solid pitcher and was on quite a streak before he got his ass handed to him by SF. Capuano showed about nothing last time he came up to the bigs. Sd and Zona are both hot with the bats and both are winning, but Peavy is the more experienced pitcher so I'll take him as a +130.

 

[JakeT.]

Baltimore +187
Pitchers: Helling/Franklin
These pitchers are pitching about the same their last 3 starts.
Baltimore has been hitting much better. Nice value here, I think
Baltimore can take Game 2.