Record: 7-7 -.7 Units
Sorry about not posting the last couple weeks. I have really been avoiding college football since I've been extremely busy (and sick) and just focusing on NFL but I'm feeling better and want to get back to the cash cow that is college football.
I will attempt to handicap every game this week as I did the last few years and will include my predicted line and total. If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask.
I make bets by setting my own lines and then comparing the actual lines to them. Generally, I look for 3-4 points difference in the point spread odds before I make a bet but it does vary depending on the game. Sometimes I will make a bet if it's smaller of a difference and sometimes pass if it is larger but those are not the norm.
As far as totals I look for 7+ points of difference before I make a bet and generally want to get at least that amount. I'm much more strict on totals than point spreads and it has been a winning combination over the years.
All of my bets will be listed in this first post which I will edit every time I add a new one. Each new line I make will be posted in a new thread to make it easy to keep track of if I've listed a game your were interested in or now but all the bets will be placed in this main thread.
Due to time constraints I am not going to post much of a writeup on the games I decide not to bet but will try to include a few things about those I like. If you want my opinion on any game, please just ask and I'll hook you up with whatever I have.
So with all that being said, on to the games...
Bets (updated here throughout the week):
North Carolina +8 -110
Miami has a strong D and North Carolina has an inexperienced quarterback but North Carolina has a strong enough defensive line to frustrate Miami's offense as well and keep this one close.
Kansas State -20.5 -110
Lafayette has no defense. Lafayette can drive but they don't have the hogs to get in the end zone regularly like K State can. Look for Kansas State to score around 50 which should be enough for the cover.
Ohio State -17.5 -110
Minnesota has an offense that is definitely improving but they are going against a strong defense who will just overpower them once again. Ohio State has been poor on offense but Minnesota just can't match up defensively and you should look for Ohio State to control the running game and the clock while covering this spread. The Buckeyes are not great but they are still the pride of the Big-10.
Syracuse +15.5 -110
This one almost didn't make the cut despite crossing both the 13 and 14 on my predicted numbers but I just couldn't leave it off. Pitt just has not looked like a strong team and this game might be harder for them to cover then they think if they only score around 24-27 points which is where I think their offense kind of tops out at.
Tulane/SMU Over 48.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
This one is just too far off for me not to bet it. At worst I get a great line. I don't see either team stopping the other at all.
UCONN/Louisville Under 50.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Neither team has a good offense and both have decent defenses. UCONN can't pass and Louisville is not at full strength on offense yet.
Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan Under 57 -110
Kent State/Ball State Over 60 -110
Florida -22 -110
The Gators are just too strong. Mississippi has a good offense and a good defense but they are going to get destroyed in the trenches and just can't score enough to keep up with the Gators.
Houston +11 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
This is by far my favorite bet of the day. Houston is running the Texas Tech offense that has given East Carolina's defense issues in the past. Houston appears to be a team that can't stop the run but they will be just fine and the stats are skewed because of playing run-first teams. This game is going to come down to the wire and the Houston Cougars could easily pull the upset.
Texas -27 -110
Texas/Arkansas Over 58.5 -110
Texas can easily score 50+ points by themselves here if they feel like it. Arkansas is having issues on offense but they are still good enough to score 10-17 and get this over in since they are balanced and have good schemes. I think the Longhorns win by 52-17 or so.
Cincinnati -10.5 -110
I know Cincy has their backup QB in and all but Akron has no defense. They gave up 30 points a game last year and are without 3 of their top defensive lineman. The Bearcats can run all over them and score at will. Akron's offense has been a nice surprise but they won't have it as easy against Cincy's schemes and talent. Look for Akron to score like 14-17 and Cincy to come in at 40+. This line is so far off it kinda scares me though.
Wisconsin -5.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
I can't see this one being close. Michigan has no offensive line and doesn't have the guys to run Rodriguez' offense. Against a defense like Wisconsin that has 9 guys back, you should expect them to score like 10 points. Michigan's defense has looked good enough but Wisconsin has a balanced offense that can score points and they should easily cover this spread.
Colorado +6.5
Colorado/Florida State Under 42 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Colorado does not have an offense that can put up many points here but Florida State's offense hasn't impressed me at all and Dan Hawkins knows how to scheme up defenses to slow them down. I see this being a game where lots of field goals are made.
Alabama +6.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Georgia can't compete here. Alabama has the better offense and the better defense. Georgia at home in their black uniforms is a nice story and all but Moreno will have no room to run and his team will be bounced from the title picture here. Alabama is for real and can do it all while Georgia is going to mess up and lose outright. You heard it here first.
Tennessee +6.5 -110
Auburn is a solid team at all but the Vols are underrated. They have the offense to score some points on Auburn and enough of a defense to stop a pedestrian Tigers offense. This one stays close.
Wyoming +3 -110
Wyoming is a very hard place to travel to and this team will start to click soon. Bowling Green is a good team but I just think there is more to Wyoming than what the Cowboys have shown us so far this season and I think they can find a way to win.
Central Michigan/Buffalo Under 61.5 -110
Both squads have good offenses that can put up points but this total is simply too high. These defenses bring back nearly everyone and have been solid on the year and I don't think this game will be as wide open as last year's meeting.
Rice -15.5 -110
Rice/North Texas Over 68.5 -110
Rice can score all day on this offense and is likely to put up 50+ here. North Texas runs a similar offense and Rice has no defense so North Texas should score around 25-30 as well. Rice is better at the offense although both should score at will.
Oregon -21.5 -110
This one I could have easily left off but am playing it for half. Washington State is just too injured to compete with the better athletes the Ducks have and Oregon seems to have found a QB who can run the offense. Washington State is in for another long day.
Toledo -20 -110
Florida International is horrible and won't be able to stop Toledo.
Troy +17.5 -110
Troy/Oklahoma St Over 61 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Oklahoma State can score at will against an overmatched Troy squad but the Trojans are capable of scoring in bunches as well and keeping this one somewhat close. They upset the Cowboys last year while scoring 41 points and are even better on offense this time around. Both teams score at will.
South Carolina -27
South Carolina/UAB Under 50.5 -110
There is a decent chance that UAB won't score a single point here. South Carolina kind of scares me as they don't go hard against lesser teams but with UAB not scoring and South Carolina having a balanced offense that can move the ball, you have to like both of these bets.
Oklahoma -18 -110
TCU is a strong team but they are going to get ran over by the best offensive line in the country as Oklahoma will get around 40-50. It's simply too much to ask TCU to stop them. The Frogs have a good offense and won't be shutout here but if they top 20 points it will be a shocker. Sooners are just too good for this BCS busting attempt.
San Jose State +3 -110
Hawaii is on a down year. They can't do anything offensively and their defense is average at best. This team is simply very bad and San Jose State has a ton more experience and almost pulled the upset last year when Hawaii was good. They get it done this time.
LSU -24.5 -110
Mississippi State's offense is so bad they will be lucky if they score a field goal here. I like the Miss State defense enough but LSU is simply too strong and too good. They win this game like 38-3 or something.
Penn State -16 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Penn State/Illinois Over 53.5 -110
Penn State's offense is not going to be stopped at all here. They will run it all day long for as many yards and points as they feel like scoring. Illinois has a decent running offense but Penn is so strong on the line that it won't be easy for Juice to run free like last year. Illinois will score here and there but ultimately the offense for the Nittany Lions is going to be too much to handle.
Idaho +11.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Idaho has a balanced offense with a veteran offensive line that can score points on this below average SD State defense. San Diego State can't run at all and passing teams have had success against Idaho but the Aztecs are so bad I just don't see it. Idaho wins this game outright.
Sorry about not posting the last couple weeks. I have really been avoiding college football since I've been extremely busy (and sick) and just focusing on NFL but I'm feeling better and want to get back to the cash cow that is college football.
I will attempt to handicap every game this week as I did the last few years and will include my predicted line and total. If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask.
I make bets by setting my own lines and then comparing the actual lines to them. Generally, I look for 3-4 points difference in the point spread odds before I make a bet but it does vary depending on the game. Sometimes I will make a bet if it's smaller of a difference and sometimes pass if it is larger but those are not the norm.
As far as totals I look for 7+ points of difference before I make a bet and generally want to get at least that amount. I'm much more strict on totals than point spreads and it has been a winning combination over the years.
All of my bets will be listed in this first post which I will edit every time I add a new one. Each new line I make will be posted in a new thread to make it easy to keep track of if I've listed a game your were interested in or now but all the bets will be placed in this main thread.
Due to time constraints I am not going to post much of a writeup on the games I decide not to bet but will try to include a few things about those I like. If you want my opinion on any game, please just ask and I'll hook you up with whatever I have.
So with all that being said, on to the games...
Bets (updated here throughout the week):
North Carolina +8 -110
Miami has a strong D and North Carolina has an inexperienced quarterback but North Carolina has a strong enough defensive line to frustrate Miami's offense as well and keep this one close.
Kansas State -20.5 -110
Lafayette has no defense. Lafayette can drive but they don't have the hogs to get in the end zone regularly like K State can. Look for Kansas State to score around 50 which should be enough for the cover.
Ohio State -17.5 -110
Minnesota has an offense that is definitely improving but they are going against a strong defense who will just overpower them once again. Ohio State has been poor on offense but Minnesota just can't match up defensively and you should look for Ohio State to control the running game and the clock while covering this spread. The Buckeyes are not great but they are still the pride of the Big-10.
Syracuse +15.5 -110
This one almost didn't make the cut despite crossing both the 13 and 14 on my predicted numbers but I just couldn't leave it off. Pitt just has not looked like a strong team and this game might be harder for them to cover then they think if they only score around 24-27 points which is where I think their offense kind of tops out at.
Tulane/SMU Over 48.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
This one is just too far off for me not to bet it. At worst I get a great line. I don't see either team stopping the other at all.
UCONN/Louisville Under 50.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Neither team has a good offense and both have decent defenses. UCONN can't pass and Louisville is not at full strength on offense yet.
Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan Under 57 -110
Kent State/Ball State Over 60 -110
Florida -22 -110
The Gators are just too strong. Mississippi has a good offense and a good defense but they are going to get destroyed in the trenches and just can't score enough to keep up with the Gators.
Houston +11 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
This is by far my favorite bet of the day. Houston is running the Texas Tech offense that has given East Carolina's defense issues in the past. Houston appears to be a team that can't stop the run but they will be just fine and the stats are skewed because of playing run-first teams. This game is going to come down to the wire and the Houston Cougars could easily pull the upset.
Texas -27 -110
Texas/Arkansas Over 58.5 -110
Texas can easily score 50+ points by themselves here if they feel like it. Arkansas is having issues on offense but they are still good enough to score 10-17 and get this over in since they are balanced and have good schemes. I think the Longhorns win by 52-17 or so.
Cincinnati -10.5 -110
I know Cincy has their backup QB in and all but Akron has no defense. They gave up 30 points a game last year and are without 3 of their top defensive lineman. The Bearcats can run all over them and score at will. Akron's offense has been a nice surprise but they won't have it as easy against Cincy's schemes and talent. Look for Akron to score like 14-17 and Cincy to come in at 40+. This line is so far off it kinda scares me though.
Wisconsin -5.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
I can't see this one being close. Michigan has no offensive line and doesn't have the guys to run Rodriguez' offense. Against a defense like Wisconsin that has 9 guys back, you should expect them to score like 10 points. Michigan's defense has looked good enough but Wisconsin has a balanced offense that can score points and they should easily cover this spread.
Colorado +6.5
Colorado/Florida State Under 42 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Colorado does not have an offense that can put up many points here but Florida State's offense hasn't impressed me at all and Dan Hawkins knows how to scheme up defenses to slow them down. I see this being a game where lots of field goals are made.
Alabama +6.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Georgia can't compete here. Alabama has the better offense and the better defense. Georgia at home in their black uniforms is a nice story and all but Moreno will have no room to run and his team will be bounced from the title picture here. Alabama is for real and can do it all while Georgia is going to mess up and lose outright. You heard it here first.
Tennessee +6.5 -110
Auburn is a solid team at all but the Vols are underrated. They have the offense to score some points on Auburn and enough of a defense to stop a pedestrian Tigers offense. This one stays close.
Wyoming +3 -110
Wyoming is a very hard place to travel to and this team will start to click soon. Bowling Green is a good team but I just think there is more to Wyoming than what the Cowboys have shown us so far this season and I think they can find a way to win.
Central Michigan/Buffalo Under 61.5 -110
Both squads have good offenses that can put up points but this total is simply too high. These defenses bring back nearly everyone and have been solid on the year and I don't think this game will be as wide open as last year's meeting.
Rice -15.5 -110
Rice/North Texas Over 68.5 -110
Rice can score all day on this offense and is likely to put up 50+ here. North Texas runs a similar offense and Rice has no defense so North Texas should score around 25-30 as well. Rice is better at the offense although both should score at will.
Oregon -21.5 -110
This one I could have easily left off but am playing it for half. Washington State is just too injured to compete with the better athletes the Ducks have and Oregon seems to have found a QB who can run the offense. Washington State is in for another long day.
Toledo -20 -110
Florida International is horrible and won't be able to stop Toledo.
Troy +17.5 -110
Troy/Oklahoma St Over 61 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Oklahoma State can score at will against an overmatched Troy squad but the Trojans are capable of scoring in bunches as well and keeping this one somewhat close. They upset the Cowboys last year while scoring 41 points and are even better on offense this time around. Both teams score at will.
South Carolina -27
South Carolina/UAB Under 50.5 -110
There is a decent chance that UAB won't score a single point here. South Carolina kind of scares me as they don't go hard against lesser teams but with UAB not scoring and South Carolina having a balanced offense that can move the ball, you have to like both of these bets.
Oklahoma -18 -110
TCU is a strong team but they are going to get ran over by the best offensive line in the country as Oklahoma will get around 40-50. It's simply too much to ask TCU to stop them. The Frogs have a good offense and won't be shutout here but if they top 20 points it will be a shocker. Sooners are just too good for this BCS busting attempt.
San Jose State +3 -110
Hawaii is on a down year. They can't do anything offensively and their defense is average at best. This team is simply very bad and San Jose State has a ton more experience and almost pulled the upset last year when Hawaii was good. They get it done this time.
LSU -24.5 -110
Mississippi State's offense is so bad they will be lucky if they score a field goal here. I like the Miss State defense enough but LSU is simply too strong and too good. They win this game like 38-3 or something.
Penn State -16 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Penn State/Illinois Over 53.5 -110
Penn State's offense is not going to be stopped at all here. They will run it all day long for as many yards and points as they feel like scoring. Illinois has a decent running offense but Penn is so strong on the line that it won't be easy for Juice to run free like last year. Illinois will score here and there but ultimately the offense for the Nittany Lions is going to be too much to handle.
Idaho +11.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Idaho has a balanced offense with a veteran offensive line that can score points on this below average SD State defense. San Diego State can't run at all and passing teams have had success against Idaho but the Aztecs are so bad I just don't see it. Idaho wins this game outright.
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