Overall Record: 42-27 (60.8%) +10.8 Units
2-UNIT PLAYS: 6-5 (55%)
Going to start on the card, beginning with tonight's game. For those who missed the previous threads, I will post my lines and the actual lines to all the games I handicap as new posts in this thread and then just add any games I bet into this post so keep an eye out and I'll add through the week. Good luck to everyone.
Florida Atlanta +4 -118 LOSER
Florida Altantic/Troy Over 50.5 -110 LOSER
Thought long and hard about making each of these a 2-unit play but just couldn't pull the trigger. I think the Owls can win outright in a high-scoring game. FATL won outright on the road last year as big underdogs and they are more experienced this time around. Neither defense impresses me so I look for lots of scoring with the home team getting a close win.
Texas +7 -110
This is a great bet and one I may eventually double up on before it's all said and done. Both teams have great offenses and might be the top two in the country. There is not a ton that separates the offenses. What does seperate these two and make me give Oklahoma the slight edge is that the Longhorns' defense has simply played better and Oklahoma's defensive line might have issues here. All Texas needs to do is slow down the Sooners' offense a little bit and this game is a tight one til the end.
Wyoming +23.5 -110
Utah is a strong team but they are definitely beatable and are traveling into a tough environment to play in where they lost last time out. Wyoming has the running game to grind clock and keep this close while Utah's offense has more problems scoring than usual.
Texas Tech -20
Texas Tech/Nebraska Over 71.5 -110
Nebraska's defense is nothing special and Texas Tech can score on anyone in the nation. Look for them to put up 50+ points and possibly 60. Nebraska is no slouch and can score themselves although they lack a running game so for every TD they throw they will likely have a turnover. Tech runs up the score here while Nebraska scores 27-30 or so.
Purdue +19 -110
Purdue/Ohio State Under 45 -110
Beanie Wells coming back isn't going to suddenly change the Ohio State offense which for whatever reason hasn't been able to pass this season. Purdue has enough of an offense to score a few points and this looks like a low-scoring game that Ohio State wins by a TD or so but doesn't completely dominate.
Michigan State -1 -110
Northwestern has been winning games so far this year but I just don't think they can matchup with a more skilled Michigan State team. Offensively Northwestern doesn't impress me and they will get beat up front on the lines and Michigan State's offense is good enough to score on an improving but still average Wildcat defense.
USC/Arizona State Over 47 -110
USC has the offense to cover this by themselves and it would not be a huge surprise if they did. Arizona State has a backup QB in but they still have a nice mix of run and pass that can put up points with a backup. That being said, USC should get around 40 by themselves and this one will go over.
Boise State/Southern Miss Over 57 -110
Neither of these defenses is going to stop the opposing offenses. This game will have a ton of scoring and the line is close to 2 touchdowns off.
LSU +6 -110
These teams are so close in terms of who is better. Either team could win this game and it will likely come down to a late field goal that decides the winner.
Toledo/Michigan Under 52 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Who can score here? Michigan's offense can't put up big points against anyone and Toledo's offense is going against a much more skilled Wolverine unit that will shut them down for the most part. This total is way off.
WVU/Syracuse Over 48 -110
Syracuse's offense is so bad that the Mountaineers won't be able to stop themselves from scoring 40+ here. The Orange are also rapidly improving on offense and WVU's defense is rebuilding.
Illinois -12.5 -110
This one scares me. Not sure why. Illinois should dominate but I have a bad feeling.
Rutgers +7 -110
Very similar squads here. Gotta take the TD.
Eastern Michigan Pick -110
Army is horrible. Eastern Michigan should be favored to get this road win. Look for 200+ rushing yards from E. Mich.
South Carolina -3 -105 (2-UNIT PLAY)
These two teams are a great example of luck. South Carolina has received a ton of bad luck while Kentucky has gotten all the breaks. Expect the talent level between these two teams to be completely evident on Saturday.
Kent State -102
Gotta like the home team at near even money. Game should be tight but Kent will use it's running game to win this one.
Western Michigan +100
Buffalo is definitely an improving team but they are going to have problems stopping this offense and I don't think they are ready to keep up.
TCU -15.5 -110
Colorado State is going to give up a million rushing yards and if TCU can turn some of those long drives into TDs this cover should come in fairly easily. TCU's defense is very good.
Miami -16.5 -110
Central Florida has some good players but their offense is relying on the run and they are going against a defensive front that will overpower them and force them to pass which is the worst nightmare for UCF currently.
Arizona -6.5 -110
Arizona/Stanford Over 52.5 -110
Arizona can get close to 40 by themselves in this game as their aerial attack is too much for Stanford's defense while the Cardinals have enough of an offense to score points against a defense with only 3 returning starters. Still, Arizona romps.
Washington State +30.5 -110(2-UNIT PLAY)
This line is crazy. Oregon State has a balanced offense but they don't put up big points and they are going against a decent enough defense. Washington State's biggest problem has been on offense but they now have a QB who has had time to get into the groove and Oregon State barely has anyone back on D. This one will be closer than the bookies think.
Iowa State +4.5 -110
This is a 1.5 Unit play. Really wanted to double it up but the line and the movement on it scare me a little. Iowa is every bit as good and should be able to outscore the Bears.
UL Monroe +14.5 -110
Middle Tennesee +110
Mid Tenn/Fl INTL Under 42.5 -110
2-UNIT PLAYS: 6-5 (55%)
Going to start on the card, beginning with tonight's game. For those who missed the previous threads, I will post my lines and the actual lines to all the games I handicap as new posts in this thread and then just add any games I bet into this post so keep an eye out and I'll add through the week. Good luck to everyone.
Florida Atlanta +4 -118 LOSER
Florida Altantic/Troy Over 50.5 -110 LOSER
Thought long and hard about making each of these a 2-unit play but just couldn't pull the trigger. I think the Owls can win outright in a high-scoring game. FATL won outright on the road last year as big underdogs and they are more experienced this time around. Neither defense impresses me so I look for lots of scoring with the home team getting a close win.
Texas +7 -110
This is a great bet and one I may eventually double up on before it's all said and done. Both teams have great offenses and might be the top two in the country. There is not a ton that separates the offenses. What does seperate these two and make me give Oklahoma the slight edge is that the Longhorns' defense has simply played better and Oklahoma's defensive line might have issues here. All Texas needs to do is slow down the Sooners' offense a little bit and this game is a tight one til the end.
Wyoming +23.5 -110
Utah is a strong team but they are definitely beatable and are traveling into a tough environment to play in where they lost last time out. Wyoming has the running game to grind clock and keep this close while Utah's offense has more problems scoring than usual.
Texas Tech -20
Texas Tech/Nebraska Over 71.5 -110
Nebraska's defense is nothing special and Texas Tech can score on anyone in the nation. Look for them to put up 50+ points and possibly 60. Nebraska is no slouch and can score themselves although they lack a running game so for every TD they throw they will likely have a turnover. Tech runs up the score here while Nebraska scores 27-30 or so.
Purdue +19 -110
Purdue/Ohio State Under 45 -110
Beanie Wells coming back isn't going to suddenly change the Ohio State offense which for whatever reason hasn't been able to pass this season. Purdue has enough of an offense to score a few points and this looks like a low-scoring game that Ohio State wins by a TD or so but doesn't completely dominate.
Michigan State -1 -110
Northwestern has been winning games so far this year but I just don't think they can matchup with a more skilled Michigan State team. Offensively Northwestern doesn't impress me and they will get beat up front on the lines and Michigan State's offense is good enough to score on an improving but still average Wildcat defense.
USC/Arizona State Over 47 -110
USC has the offense to cover this by themselves and it would not be a huge surprise if they did. Arizona State has a backup QB in but they still have a nice mix of run and pass that can put up points with a backup. That being said, USC should get around 40 by themselves and this one will go over.
Boise State/Southern Miss Over 57 -110
Neither of these defenses is going to stop the opposing offenses. This game will have a ton of scoring and the line is close to 2 touchdowns off.
LSU +6 -110
These teams are so close in terms of who is better. Either team could win this game and it will likely come down to a late field goal that decides the winner.
Toledo/Michigan Under 52 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
Who can score here? Michigan's offense can't put up big points against anyone and Toledo's offense is going against a much more skilled Wolverine unit that will shut them down for the most part. This total is way off.
WVU/Syracuse Over 48 -110
Syracuse's offense is so bad that the Mountaineers won't be able to stop themselves from scoring 40+ here. The Orange are also rapidly improving on offense and WVU's defense is rebuilding.
Illinois -12.5 -110
This one scares me. Not sure why. Illinois should dominate but I have a bad feeling.
Rutgers +7 -110
Very similar squads here. Gotta take the TD.
Eastern Michigan Pick -110
Army is horrible. Eastern Michigan should be favored to get this road win. Look for 200+ rushing yards from E. Mich.
South Carolina -3 -105 (2-UNIT PLAY)
These two teams are a great example of luck. South Carolina has received a ton of bad luck while Kentucky has gotten all the breaks. Expect the talent level between these two teams to be completely evident on Saturday.
Kent State -102
Gotta like the home team at near even money. Game should be tight but Kent will use it's running game to win this one.
Western Michigan +100
Buffalo is definitely an improving team but they are going to have problems stopping this offense and I don't think they are ready to keep up.
TCU -15.5 -110
Colorado State is going to give up a million rushing yards and if TCU can turn some of those long drives into TDs this cover should come in fairly easily. TCU's defense is very good.
Miami -16.5 -110
Central Florida has some good players but their offense is relying on the run and they are going against a defensive front that will overpower them and force them to pass which is the worst nightmare for UCF currently.
Arizona -6.5 -110
Arizona/Stanford Over 52.5 -110
Arizona can get close to 40 by themselves in this game as their aerial attack is too much for Stanford's defense while the Cardinals have enough of an offense to score points against a defense with only 3 returning starters. Still, Arizona romps.
Washington State +30.5 -110(2-UNIT PLAY)
This line is crazy. Oregon State has a balanced offense but they don't put up big points and they are going against a decent enough defense. Washington State's biggest problem has been on offense but they now have a QB who has had time to get into the groove and Oregon State barely has anyone back on D. This one will be closer than the bookies think.
Iowa State +4.5 -110
This is a 1.5 Unit play. Really wanted to double it up but the line and the movement on it scare me a little. Iowa is every bit as good and should be able to outscore the Bears.
UL Monroe +14.5 -110
Middle Tennesee +110
Mid Tenn/Fl INTL Under 42.5 -110
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