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Insider Preview: Jaguars at Colts
<HR width="100%" noShade SIZE=1>Scouts Inc.
Why To Watch
If the Jaguars are to avenge the 24-17 loss they suffered at home to the Colts in Week 4 and pull even with the Colts in the loss column, they must run the football with more success. QB
Byron Leftwich played well in the initial meeting and has improved nearly each week since, but he can only do so much when it comes to keeping his counterpart,
Peyton Manning, and the Colts' high-powered offense off the field.
With an extra week of preparation thanks to the bye and with Sunday's meeting taking place on the fast track of the RCA Dome, the Colts seem primed for an explosive offensive outburst. If RB
Fred Taylor doesn't average more than the 3.3 yards per carry he had in the first meeting and if he doesn't get more than the 21 carries he got, the Jaguars simply won't be able to keep up with the pace of this game.
When the Jaguars have the ball
Rushing: This could be the most important facet of the game for the Jaguars. In order to keep the Colts' offense off the field, the Jags need to show more of a commitment to the run than they did in the initial meeting and Taylor must be more effective than he was in that game. In order to accomplish that goal, don't be surprised if the Jaguars use a lot of three- and four-receiver sets with Taylor as the one-back in that formation.
The Colts are hobbled in the secondary and they really don't have the personnel to match up against the Jaguars' multi-receiver sets, which is why spreading them out and forcing them to use one or two extra defensive backs in place of linebackers on a consistent basis makes a lot of sense. Despite the spread formation, establishing a strong running game must remain priority No. 1. <!---------------------INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN)--------------------->
<!---------------------INLINE HEADSHOT (END)--------------------->Taylor has proven capable of carrying a full load and the team also has quality depth with
LaBrandon Toefield (if he returns healthy this week) and
Greg Jones in order to keep Taylor fresh. The Colts have the athleticism up front to keep a sporadic running attack in check, but if the Jaguars show more discipline and run at this unit around 35 times on Sunday, it will not only lead to the undersized group wearing down, but it should also help to limit the Colts' offensive possessions.
Passing: Leftwich is expected to play, but he left the stadium on crutches last week after he suffered shoulder and ankle injuries in the win over the Chiefs. The good news is that Leftwich will have some favorable mismatches to work against on Sunday, as the Colts are forced to start rookie CB
Jason David in place of
Donald Strickland (hamstring), who was placed on injured reserve.
Because of that injury, not only is David going to be a big-time target for veteran WR
Jimmy Smith, who had seven receptions last week and is averaging 16.9 yards per catch on the season, but it also makes the Colts a lot more vulnerable in their nickel and dime defensive packages. As a result, look for Jacksonville WRs
Troy Edwards and
Cortez Hankton to continue to see a lot of action, as the Jaguars look to spread the Colts.
The true sign that Leftwich is developing is the fact that he's spreading the ball around the field so well. Last week he completed 24 passes to nine different skill players. If he can continue to spread the ball around like that this week, it will help to exploit some of the aforementioned mismatches and to keep the Colts' defense honest. However, in order to maximize these mismatches and to have a chance to steal this game on the road, Leftwich has to bounce back from his two injuries and play as well or better than he played in the first meeting between these two teams.
When the Colts have the ball
Rushing: The Colts really balanced out their offensive attack the first time these two teams met, as they finished with 27 rushing attempts compared to 29 passing attempts. While they were clearly more effective throwing the ball, the commitment that they showed to the run helped to keep the Jaguars honest throughout the game, which led to a lot better opportunities for Manning in the play-action passing series. The Jaguars have surprisingly had trouble stopping the run and most of their problems have come on the perimeter as a result of poor play by their defensive ends. In an effort to beef up the perimeter run defense, coach Jack Del Rio moved DT
Marcus Stroud to left end against the Chargers, but the Chargers still finished with 176 rushing yards. Del Rio will continue to move Stroud back and forth, but the team is undermanned up front versus the run at the two positions that Stroud and DT
John Henderson are not playing. By showing a solid commitment to the running game once again, it could force the Jaguars to become more aggressive with their safeties in run support than they would like, which in turn could lead to a lot of big-play passing opportunities for the Colts' receivers down the middle of the field.
Passing: <!---------------------INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN)--------------------->
<!---------------------INLINE HEADSHOT (END)--------------------->In the first meeting between these two teams, offensive coordinator Tom Moore saw a mismatch in the passing game between No. 3 WR
Brandon Stokley and Jaguars nickel CB
Juran Bolden that he liked, and he wasn't afraid to target it down the middle of the field. While the Jaguars are certain to adjust and could play more zone-coverage as a result, don't be surprised to see Moore employ a lot of three-receiver sets once again.
The Colts know that the Jaguars will struggle to get pressure on Manning with their front-four pass rush, which leads to one of two things. Either they simply sit back and let Manning work with all the time he needs, or they attack Manning and force him to make quick decisions and accurate throws against the blitz. In all reality, with three-receiver sets of
Marvin Harrison,
Reggie Wayne and Stokley working against CBs
Rashean Mathis,
Dewayne Washington and Bolden, it shouldn't matter much to Manning how the Jaguars go about their business.
Scouts' Edge
The Jaguars were able to stay within one score in the first meeting, but that was on the slower grass in Jacksonville. With an extra week to prepare because of the bye and with the game being played at home, inside, on turf, the Colts should be much more explosive offensively. Leftwich continues to improve and the Colts are susceptible in the secondary, as well as against the run, but the Jaguars simply lack the offensive balance to keep up in this shootout. Furthermore, without consistent front-four pressure, Manning should have all the time he needs to pick apart a secondary that is playing well but does not match up overly well against the Colts' three-receiver set of Harrison, Wayne and Stokley. Points should be aplenty, as the Colts outgun what seems to be their toughest divisional competition for the second time in three weeks.