~J.J. Bascus Power Rating ~For NFL Early Game Predictions Week 1: Sept 10-14 2015 >Will be updated Friday Sept 11 2015

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This my 2nd year with RX as a member and I am very happy to be here with some stand-up friends I met Saints Fan1977, Grindstone30, Indiana... just to name a few!!!! here, and some great members that handicap & bet here on the forum. This power rating from J.J. Bascus and System Smity Ryann II, [J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst] put this power rating together for early game predictions. J.J. and Smitty have compiled stats and other Handicapping tools from last years stats and exhibition games that have been played. Rx members, personal friends on Rx and Our Guests this a indicator or a draft of rating. J.J. puts this early game predictions out for primary use for our crew every year before he updates into his final power rating For NFL. which I will post for members before the 1st week in NFL season by Friday Sept 11 2015 which will updated and our picks to you. You have to remember looking at power rating that changes will augur through out week before week 1. Point spread movement and money lines and other stats will be happening. This will updated to J.J. Bascus Power Rating. You can call this a draft of information what the finial power rating will look like. I would like to share this thought to you all that late Bob Martin told me, If you that good handcapping games for wagering kid, you make every one else around you look good, its makes you look better. I Guess thats what are crew is all about my friends.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

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J.J. Bascus Power Rating For NFL Early Game Predictions Week 1: Sept 10-14 2015 >Will be updated Friday Sept 11 2015
~ BEST~ J.J.BASCUS RATINGDateTime[EST]J.J. BASCUSJ.J.BASCUS POWER LINEGAMEVEGAS PREDICTING TEAM WINVEGAS OPENING LINE
Opening Money Lines & Win Percentages% Based On the Point Spread %ECCO}}}/%
DALSun 8:30DAL -7 1/2 NYG 24 DAL 4
DAL+20
NYG at DALDALNYG +5DAL-$240
J.J.> DAL -6.5
Vegas> DAL -5.0
DAL 29.0 NYG 21.0 DAL-8
System Smitty Ryann Jr.76% Win by Dal to Cover 71/2 points or better

GB
BEST~BET
9/13Sun 1pmGB -9 CHI 28 GB 6
GB +22
GB at CHIGBGB-7GB -$275
J.J.> GB -3.8
Vegas GB -6.5
GB 30 CHI 19

GB -11
System Smitty Ryann Jr.86% Win by GB to Cover 7 points or better
DEN9/13Sun 4:25pmBAL +3BAL 5 DEN 2
DEN+3
BAL at DENDENDEN -4 1/2DEN -$211
J.J.> DEN -5.6
Vegas> DEN -4.0
DEN 30 BAL 27
DEN -3
System Smitty Ryann Jr.51% Win by DEN to Cover 4 1/2 points or more

to close to call yet?
SD9/13Sun 4:05 pmSD-1 SD 19 DET 9
DET +10
DET at SDSDSD -3SD - $150
J.J.> SD -1.5
Vegas SD -2.5
SD 21 DET 20
SD-1
System Smitty Ryann Jr.54% Win by SD to Cover -3
ARI9/13Sun 4:05 pmARI -6NO 23 ARI 8 NO at ARIARIARI -1ARI -$140
J.J.> ARI -3
Vegas ARI -2.5
NO 25 ARI 19

ARI -6
System Smitty Ryann Jr.65% Win by ARI to Cover -1
TB 9/13Sun4:25 PMTB -2 TEN 32 TB 30
TB +2
TEN at TBTBTB -3TB -$140
J.J.> TB -2.7
Vegas> TB -2.5
TB 17 TEN 15
TB -2
System Smitty Ryann Jr.52% Win by TB to Cover -3
IND9/13Sun1 PMIND -4 IND 16 BUF 12
BUF +4
IND at BUF INDIND -2 1/2 BUF +120
J.J.> BUF -0.3
Vegas> IND -2.5
IND 29 BUF 25
IND -4
System Smitty Ryann Jr.70% Win by IND to Cover -2 1/2
BEST BET
CIN
9/13Sun 4:25pmCIN-15 CIN 22 OAK 15
OAK +7
CIN at OAKCINCIN -3CIN -$170
J.J.> CIN -5.5
Vegas> CIN -3.5
OAK 29 CIN 14
CIN -15
System Smitty Ryann Jr.90% Win by CIN to Cover -3
BEST BET
MIA
9/13Sun 1pmMIA -9WAS 26 MIA 17
MIA+9
MIA at WASMIAMIA -3 1/2MIA -$180
J.J.> MIA -7.3
Vegas> MIA -3.5
WAS 26 MIA 17

MIA-9
System Smitty Ryann Jr.93% Win by MIA to Cover -3 1/2
PHI9/14Mon 7:10 pmPHI -3PHI 29 ATL 23
ATL+6
PHI at ATLPHIPHI - 5 1/2 PHI -$150
J.J.> PHI -3.1
Vegas> PHI -2.0
ATL 27 PHI 11
PHI -26
System Smitty Ryann Jr.55% Win by PHI to Cover -5 1/2

NE9/10Thur 8:30 pmNE - 2PIT13 NE 3
NE +10
PIT at NENE NE-3NE -$150
J.J.> NE -3.9
Vegas NE -3.0
NE 29 PIT 27
NE - 2
System Smitty Ryann Jr.60% Win by NE to Cover -3
NYJ9/13Sun 1 pm CLE -1 CLE 25 NYJ 21
NYJ +4
CLE at NYJNYJNYJ -3NYJ -$150
J.J.> NYJ -3.0
Vegas> NYJ -3.0
CLE 18 NYJ 17
CLE -1 System Smitty Ryann Jr.60% Win by NYJ to Cover -3
CAR9/13Sun 1 pmCAR -6JAC 30 CAR19CAR at JACCARCAR - 2 1/2 CAR -$165
J.J.> CAR -1.5
Vegas CAR -3.0
CAR 21 JAC 15
CAR -6
System Smitty Ryann Jr.>> J.J. Avoid this game
SF9/14MON 10:20pmSF+2 1/2MIN 22 SF 7
SF-15
MIN at SFMINMIN -2 1/2



MIN -$140
J.J.> SF -2.2
Vegas> MIN -2.0
MIN 20. SF 19
MIN -1
System Smitty Ryann Jr.70% Win by MIN to Cover -2 1/2
disagree with J.J.
HOU9/13Sun 1pmHOU-1HOU 15 KC 10
KC -5
KC at HOUHOUHOU -1HOU -$120
J.J.> HOU -2.5
Vegas> HOU -1.5
HOU 23
KC 22
HOU -1
System Smitty Ryann Jr.48% Win by HOU to Cover -1
to close call this game yet
SEA9/13Sun 1:pmSEASTL 18
SEA 1 SEA -17
SEA at STLSEASEA -4SEA -$205
J.J.> SEA -3.0
Vegas> SEA -3.5
SEA 25
STL 20
SEA -5
System Smitty Ryann Jr.60% Win by SEA to Cover -4



Best = Ranks the spreads from high-to-low. Means J.J.Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week.
J.J.Bascus = Pick. The team the J.J.Bascus predicts to win the game.
J.J.Bascus Power Line =Power points [ Lower Number Better comparison in Power Points] &Plus+ Points
Vegas = Team that Vegas picks to win.
V.Line = Vegas spread for the game (points the pick will win by). This could change a week before game time, due to the fact we are in preseason games.
System Smitty Ryann Jr. % to Win By
ECCO % Rating P/R against the point spread
*Home field advantage point spread is factored in with the forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the game

~J.J.Bascus & System Smitty Ryann Jr. Notes~
NYG at DAL> Wide receivers the focus of attention in this one. Odell Beckham and Dez Bryant can pull them in. J.J. And Smitty solidly behind Cowboys at home.
BAL at DEN> J.J. softer on Denver as likely compensating for the 'Peyton-is-getting-old' effect. Ravens expected to have extra motivation this season.
PIT at NE > Patriots have become much more than their QB and are expected to be fine at home with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm.
GB at CHI >We see this being quite a tough year for the Bears and Vegas is right to be jumping on Packers here.
MIA at WAS >Dolphins have their $114 million Ndamukong Suh to get excited. Projected Close Finishes about on defense and Suh wants MIA to be the best. The Dolphins have a long way to go, but there are promising signs. Miami's first-team defense hasn't allowed a point this preseason when all starters are on the field .HarryTheHat really looking at this game for wager
MIN at SF >Adrian Peterson is back. There is the potential for this to be a wake up game for both teams. Does SF have bigger problems? Is MIN righting the ship? Worth watching.
IND at BUF > Surprisingly lot of wise guys & sharpies sitting on fence waiting for the line to move, gamblers I talked to, backs the Bills. This is a stunning call amid BUF QB controversy between Cassell and EJ Manuel.

CAR at JAC >J.J. Bascus and System Smitty Ryann Jr. picks up the reality that the Panthers are over-hyped. there is lot of controversy with both teams on the opener. Avoid this game if possible
CLE at NYJ > There are 2 very significant additions to the Jets which is why J.J. Bascus and Smitty Ryann Jr. in line solidly behind NYJ: Darrelle Revis on def and Brandon Marshall on off. Should I say even more!!! Opened at +31/2 and moving now at +51/2 is that indicator for square betters

KC at HOU > Chiefs should be solid this season and so this early season test may not be indicative if it doesn't go well. J.J.& Smitty and Vegas are solidly behind HOU to cover !!!! Lets hope money moves the line here to a plus+?.

$ J.J. Bascus Players $
[No picks until Friday Sept 11 2015 when J.J. Bascus Power Rating For NFL will updated and will be posted on Rx Sports Forum By HarrytheHat]

J.J. Bascus Power Rating and Picks [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II, J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst [ Las Vegas N.V.]/// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper for the 1st 3 weeks of NFLseason


Projected Results. NFL Predictions based on J.J. Bascus analysis of offensive and defensive points and yards per game and other statistics and factors. Picks include recent team statistics. Best= ranks best chances to win. This power rating is not ''computerized generated'' by J.J. analysis. These are the type of calculations from J.J.Bascus power rating analysis that Vegas doesn't want you to see. Plus his power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.




 
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Its also my pleasure,J.J.Bascus power rating and the crew for posting our picks and bets on the number one sports forum RX exclusively. Thanks all for your replies. Remember I sit at Caesars Palace sports book with fellow handicappers & friends with my lab top analyzing games and watching the board on spreads and money line movement for Sundays games. I try to post picks as early as possible for you all RX members, however sometimes with line movement and calling J.J. Bascus in Reno with his power rating update and other handicappers, book makers across the country I lose track of time. I try to post our picks as soon possible before game time that gives you guys a chance to get down with a bet. I also post early in the week for J.J. Bascus power rating and some predictions. I am not perfect in times once in a while especially sitting with old school friends and handicappers taking about games & looking at board, trying to type an update for a post for you guys[ Lot things going on at once//LOL/LOL... I am not as young as I was especially typing//LOL/. I am always open to constructive criticism & feedback's on replies and will try to post as early as possible.

PS. Good luck all my Rx friends & members and guests In 2015 NFL Season
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
 

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Mr. H/hat.........kick off just around the corner...........always look forward to your thoughts. chit chat info and plays from the crew...........BOL with all action.........indy
 
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Looking forward to this Harry. Thanks alot. Good luck to you and the crew this season.
Thank you SaintsFan1977 !! Crew is also looking forward to NLF season also. Hoping to have another successful year like last year. I surround my self old school professional gambler of NFL that have known for years. Its like a reunion we have once year with NFL season SaintsFan1977. I consider them family all through the NFL season.very close communications with the old school and the new school. Sometimes as professional NFL gamblers and that's all us, we do not agree on certain games we bet on and this is why? My personal betting system is heavily dependent on statistics, requiring some data gathering and assumption building regarding future performance[ Looking at strings& string bets on certain teams]. While history does not always repeat itself perfectly, it does provide some valuable insight into behaviors and/or outcomes of certain events. If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted SaintsFan1977. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term. The bottom line SaintsFan1977 is that you have to be smart about the plays you make .Be smart, do your homework and have fun and remember that you will not become a millionaire in one night betting on sports.Those are the exact kind of egomaniacs that bookies are hoping to attract. Many people claim that what they have to offer is guaranteed to make you money in sports betting, all based on previous results. In truth,even the most successful sports bettors and the best systems experience their share of failure SaintsFan1977. To put it another way, your hit rate doesn't reflect your chances of winning money. It simply reflects how many wagers you win relative to how many wagers you place. One of the mistakes many casual sports bettors make is putting too much weight on the previous week's games as well as past results. Winning a high percentage of your wagers doesn't necessarily equate to making money. It isn't the number of predictions you get right which determines your success, it's the relative quality of your predictions. You want to keep your risk to a minimum as much as possible when it comes to betting on NFL football.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT



J.J. Bascus Power Rating and Picks [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II, J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst [ Las Vegas N.V.]/// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper for the 1st 3 weeks of NFLseason
 
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Power ratings are numbers that show the projected disparity between teams in points from a mathematical perspective. While the point spread has to factor in public opinion, power ratings do not, and for that reason alone, should be more accurate than the point spread more times than not.
 
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Stats can be skewed any way you want them to look so just look at the black and white. All that matters is performance, right? In sports betting all one needs is a 52.4% or 53% to be profitable (taking into account for -110 vigorish or eleven divided by 21). Now when none of you seem to take into account is this math workable, not account for ‘cherry picking’. There are certainly better picks than others thats all about me[HarryTheHat]. If one limits oneself to cherry picking the highest odds of willing games based on probability as a function of information it’s definately possible to pick 70%,thats our group goal.
 

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I look at your sheet and see all the edge or value is on fav! To you take in that the last 3 years dogs have won 9 game ATS vs fav only winning 7. Each year. Record 21-27 favorite over the last 3 year.

love what you are doing in the NFL forum....you are a must read each week

keep it going
Ace
 

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thanks harry..
 
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I look at your sheet and see all the edge or value is on fav! To you take in that the last 3 years dogs have won 9 game ATS vs fav only winning 7. Each year. Record 21-27 favorite over the last 3 year.

love what you are doing in the NFL forum....you are a must read each week

keep it going
Ace
Thanks for your reply & feed back and constructive criticism is always welcome to the crew ACE-ACE!!!!. Here's a rundown of the games that were on J.J. Bascus power rating from road games he picked on numbers that not covered.. from System Smitty Ryann Jr. last season: Its all about numbers, money lines moves spreads my friend. Follow the money !!!!!! look at J.J. Bascus power rating Opening Money Lines & Win Percentages% Based On the Point Spread. There are many different perceptives & facets look at when you view J.J. Bascus power rating... You know what's really amazing about most sports betters ACE-ACE is, they only look at one perspective point of view when they are wagering on NFL games. You need look at the big picture!!!!!!!! Example here ACE-ACE!!!! Judge rules in favor of Tom Brady in Deflategate NFL appeals decision. Tom Brady will play the 1st four games. Money line this game opened at -$150 and point spread -3 Pats which is on J.J. Bascus Rating[ NE -$150 J.J.> NE -3.9 Vegas NE -3.0 to cover the money] Now this lined moved to -7 Pats after the appeal decision.... which moved by the money line NE -$300.... [ NE -3.9 Vegas NE -3.0 ] to cover the money has not moved with J.J. Bascus prediction of his percentage break-down pick and Vegas has not moved there percentage ether going from -$150 to -$300.. Does that tell anything? The wise guys, sharpies and whale betters that bet the money line moved this money line bet to -$300 at 1/1/2 to 1 to 3-1...which moved the point spread to-7 Pats from -3
San Diego (-10) at San Francisco - Final score: Chargers 48 - 49ers 19


Denver (-8) at Oakland - Final score: Broncos 17 - Raiders 13


Baltimore (-7.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Ravens 27 - Titans 26


Indianapolis (-8) at NY Jets - Final score: Colts 31 - Jets 28


Jacksonville (-8) at Houston - Final score: Texans 27 - Jaguars 7


Indianapolis (-7.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Titans 20 - Colts 17

Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Cowboys 45 - Titans 14///

Chicago (-13) at Arizona - Final score: Bears 24 - Cardinals 23

Pittsburgh (-9) at Oakland - Final score: Raiders 20 - Steelers 13

Indianapolis (-9.5) at Houston - Final score: Texans 27 - Colts 24

Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT




 
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thanks harry..
Thank You 3pointdog and very good luck to you my friend in the up-coming season from the crew. Winning at sports betting is “all in the numbers, all in the timing.“The secret is patience. You always have the action. But you need to pick your spots. You need to exercise self-control.” I am very selective with my plays. I research the entire card finding the play that that has best chance of winning my bet. The most important rule to sports betting rule to bet 5% or less of your current total bankroll at all times. Pressing a win play one time on the following game pick is a must. I probably leaned more about point spreads and money lines from some great old school sports betters like late Bob Martin
 
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This about little about J.J. Bascus & Power Ratings Reno N.V. that I had posted in a previous thread...... J.J.Bascus was born and raised in Covington KY. His father was an illegal bookie and his grandfather in late 30s had illegal gambling joint there called the Kentucky Club. J.J. Power ratings are a local rating and I will explain why? !!!!. He does not have a web site or affiliated with any sports services. Only answers his cell phone for very close friends & family. His power ratings are free..... J.J. Bascus rating are usually on two sheets of paper that he composes and passed to Keystone print shop off of West 5th street in town. They distribute the rating sheets to most of J.J. Bascus's friends at local sportsbooks in Reno. Everybody and grandmother picks up the sheets that bets NFL football and they copy the rating using their computers, send them to friends, players,and everybody and their grandmothers and whoever else?.. His rating is primary seen in the Reno Area and Northern Calf. There are some sporting newspapers in "Bay Area",that post his rating to that use there own affiliated names in publishing. There also Sports Web Sites on the web that publish his ratings using their affiliated names also. His ratings are free, not copyrighted. You have to remember that J.J. Bascus, Smitty, Benny, Bee Bee and myself are NFL gamblers that handicap/ We are not social players, advisers or whatever? that handicap games for no other reason other than make our NFL bets and Win !!!!!, just gambling on the games. Believe me I am more than happy to post the ratings and our predictions on RX Sports Forum[ some great members here] that like to bet on the NFL games. This my 2nd year with RX as a member and I am very happy to be here with some stand-up friends I met Saints Fan1977, Grindstone30, Indiana... just to name a few!!!! here, and some great members that handicap & bet here on the forum..s
 
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Originally Posted by jgm4661
Good post Harry. Can make a difference. I track the margins of the opponents and then just have a formula add them up. Haven't figured out how to tie in the opponents SOS yet though.



Using some sort of recent performance is essential to creating a more accurate line than the oddsmakers and the marketplace. If you want to handicap using more long term, year to year trends, it is likely you need predictive stats that don't involve things like personnel changes. This takes a significant amount of creative thinking as well as an understanding of the marketplace. Many successful bettors use a weighted formula of past performance and recent performance together to determine where team has been, is currently, and, most importantly where it is likely to headed. There are many ways to skin a cat, consider it knowledge for the esoteric. Hell, you can successfully develop a handicapping model using only mistakes, like fumbles, etc. if you understand the relationships on the field and, once again, the marketplace.
 
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Mr H thanks again for your wealth of knowledge and above all for sharing your thoughts with all of us. What you share is priceless and sincere and I thank you for that. You will always be remembered no matter what happens. What you do is not only helpful to us all but very humanistic on your part. This world needs more people to help one another as good karma finds its way back to you.

My Week 1 Leans so far
Buff
Ariz

Any thoughts? :103631605
 
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Mr H thanks again for your wealth of knowledge and above all for sharing your thoughts with all of us. What you share is priceless and sincere and I thank you for that. You will always be remembered no matter what happens. What you do is not only helpful to us all but very humanistic on your part. This world needs more people to help one another as good karma finds its way back to you.

My Week 1 Leans so far
Buff
Ariz

Any thoughts? :103631605
Thank you for kind words Grindstone30 The crew is looking at these games with early comparisons not so much the points spread that is reflecting with movement of the money line. Opening Money Lines & Win Percentages% Based On the Point Spread J.J.> BUF -0.3 Vegas> IND -2.5------> Indy -2.2 Indy opened at -2 1/2 its now its -3 around town this spread with our predictions move up before game time. J.J. Bascus has this game moving to-4 indy by game time maybe -4 1/2 tops. However its not one of our picks yet and maybe not? Ariz on the other hand around town opened at-1 and has moved up - 2 1/2 to-3.. moving up near game time J.J. has this game ARI -6.. talked to System Smitty Ryann Jr. on your behalf System Smitty Ryann Jr.70% Win by ARI to Cover -3 at home, again its not one of games we as group are looking at. Our Leans so far is Miami at -3 1/2 as on now J.J. has this game at - 9 rushing yards a big factor here MIA> 117.0[ rating will be higher by game time.... to WAS>105.7 Power rating WAS 26 MIA 17 [ lower number the better the rating]. OAK 29 CIN 14 power rating CIN-15>>>System Smitty Ryann Jr.85% Win by CIN to Cover -3 1/2 as of now with the point spread.. We as crew are really looking at this game big time.
Good Luck Always my friend [Grindstone30] on your picks and bets in up-coming season



Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
 

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