J.J Bascus [Lake Tahoe N.V.] Power Rating 80% True, NFL Picks and Game Prediction Update 9/17/14 Week 3: September 18-22, 2014.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

J.J Bascus [Lake Tahoe N.V.] Power Rating, 80% True [NFL Picks and Game Prediction Update 9/17/14 Week 3: September 18-22, 2014.]

Best Date Time[est] J.J. Bascus Prediction F-Line Game Vegas Prediction V-Line O/U COMMENTS 6 Thur Sept 18 8:25 ATL -4.13 TB at ATL ATL -6.5 46.4 - 12 Sun Sept 21 1pm BUF -0.73 SD at BUF BUF -1.5 46.1 Surprisingly important AFC test 14 Sun Sept 21 1pm DAL -0.4 DAL at STL DAL -1 47 - 4 Sun Sept 21 1pm PHI -4.89 WAS at PHI PHI -6.5 50.1 - 15 Sun Sept 21 1pm NYG -0.31 HOU at NYG HOU -2 44.6 HarryThe Hats Pick NYG + Points 1 Sun Sept 21 1pm NO -8.45 MIN at NO NO -10 52 Saints need this home win, AD out 3 Sun Sept 21 1pm CIN -5.67 TEN at CIN CIN -6.5 45.2 - 13 Sun Sept 21 1pm CLE -0.48 BAL at CLE BAL -1 43.9 Changing of the guard? 9 Sun Sept 21 1pm DET -2.07 GB at DET DET -1 50.2 Ditto? 7 Sun Sept 21 1pm IND -2.95 IND at JAC IND -7 45.4 - 2 Sun Sept 21 1pm NE -6.82 OAK at NE NE -14.5 49.2 - 8 Sun Sept 21 4:05 SF -2.16 SF at ARI SF -2 41 - 11 Sun Sept 21 4:25 SEA -1.8 DEN at SEA SEA -5 49.5 Game of the week! 10 Sun Sept 21 4:25 MIA -2.02 KC at MIA MIA -4.5 42 Another tough road game for Chiefs 5 Sun Sept 21 8:30 CAR -4.74 PIT at CAR CAR -3 42.6 - 16 Mon Sept 22 8:30 CHI -0.18 CHI at NYJ NYJ -2.5 46.9 Bears look for another road prime time win **Closest Projected Game: Bears at Jets **Best Chance (team to win by the most points): New Orleans Saints.

Best = J.J. Bascus Ranks the spreads from high-to-low. A '1' means the J.J. Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week.
J.J.Bascus = Pick. The team the J.J. Bascus predicts to win the game.
F.Line = J.J. Bascus forecast for how many points my pick will win the game by.
Vegas = Team that Vegas picks to win.
V-Line = Vegas spread for the game (points the pick will win by).
O/U= J.J. Bascus Prediction for Over/Under. Prediction for the total amount of points scored by both teams.

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NFL Predictions based on J.J.Bascus analysis of offensive and defensive points and yards per game and other statistics and factors. Picks include recent team statistics. Best= ranks best chances to win.
These are the type of calculations Vegas doesn't make public. Plus J.J. Bascus Power Rating factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.
Good Luck All On Your Picks And Bets
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[BBQMan]

Harry, thanks for the Atl. pick, and thanks for stories of the "olden days" in Vegas. That's when Vegas was willing to gamble with you.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Thanks Harry. I'm looking forward to seeing the results for the Vegas picks. Question though, how does one identify who Vegas picks?

 

[powerz]

nice job HArry

Gl this weekend

 

[BernieVegas]

HarrytheHat is a very nice addition to the Rx this year...Great information and nice write-ups...and an experienced prospective on picking winners.

Thanks for providing

Yours in Winners
BernieV

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

thanks harry. I'm looking forward to seeing the results for the vegas picks. Question though, how does one identify who vegas picks?

v-line vegas line at the opener

 

[Slurve~Ball]

So the "Vegas Prediction" column. That's SU, not ATS?

Or is it just listing the Fav?

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

So the "Vegas Prediction" column. That's SU, not ATS?

Or is it just listing the Fav?

...... I believe what your asking Slurve~Ball is SU is the abbreviation for Straight Up, meaning the record of a team overall, without factoring in the spread. "Conversely", ATS is Against the Spread I believe? meaning the record of a team in relation to the spread. In other words, Vegas Prediction refers only to the spread numbers on the opening line and not to a team's record in the standings. I hope this answers your question Slurve~Ball? And Very Good Luck to you in NFL season with your prediction and bets. Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[RonMexico]

Harry, thanks for the Atl. pick, and thanks for stories of the "olden days" in Vegas. That's when Vegas was willing to gamble with you.

Thats when Vegas was run by the Mob......it's all corporate now ....it was a better time back in the day

 

[RonMexico]

Double post

 

[jgm4661]

So his ratings had TB +6.5 too. They were just unprepared, flat and then lost their QB.

 

[SunDodger]

I'm confused by the F-Line. In your other post, you had Atlanta winning by 10, but here it says -4.13. I can't figure out JJ's power ratings for these games. Are the F-Line and V-Line added together to get the power rating??

Ex. Atl. -4.13 + -6.5 = -10.68

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I'm confused by the F-Line. In your other post, you had Atlanta winning by 10, but here it says -4.13. I can't figure out JJ's power ratings for these games. Are the F-Line and V-Line added together to get the power rating??

Ex. Atl. -4.13 + -6.5 = -10.68

Atlanta winning by least 4 points So giving up 4 points and 3 points for home team advantage is 7 points Atlanta will win by...

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

ADD 3 POINTS TO HOME TEAMS TO THE F-LINE[ EXAMPLE GIANTS ARE -0.31 ADD THE 3 POINTS FOR HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE AND THEY SHOULD WIN GAME BY 3 1/2 POINTS, THE LINE + 2 OR +1 1/2 OR +1 OR WHAT EVER IN THE PLUS. THIS POWER RATING SHEET IS LOT DIFFERENT THE ODDS MAKERS USE [Sheridan's Power Rankings] WITH OPTION TO ADJUST THE LINE IN SOME SPOTS. J.J.BASCUS IS POWER RATING IS LOT DIFFERENT AND BELIEVE ME ,IT TOOK ME TIME COMPREHEND HIS RATING & POWER RANKING AND POINT DIFFERENCE TOO.. SO DON'T FEEL LEFT OUT MY FRIEND!!!!
MR.Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[SunDodger]

Got it. Thanks Mr. Harry.

So just add home field edge to the F-Line, and then compare that to the current line.

Interesting. According to JJ's ratings New England should only be favored by -9.5. Now I see why the line has come down from -15.0.



Line is starting to move on the Giants.

Good luck tomorrow.

:toast: