Game obviously doesn't worry about calling an election too early. If Bush wins by 8% of the popular vote I and almost everyone else with half a clue will be STUNNED! Neither side will win this by 8%, probably not even by 4%. In the end though it is all about the electoral map and many reports said that in the states where it will matter they are guessing not a whole lot of movement. Most telling is that polls of people that were undecided going in are undecided coming out. Bush got the bounce Kerry didn't but bounces generally don't last that long.
I will say Bush and his team have done a brilliant job of taking a mediocre, at best, jobs report and turning into "fresh evidence of the strengthening economy". Only a fool would believe that statement. The whole effort to "flip flop" if you will on the timing of these sorts of statements is laughable. It is almost like a guy that goes to Vegas with $1000 in his pocket. First two nights he loses $700. Last night in town his buddy comes by to see if he is packed and ready to go to the airport and says "how you doing?" and the guy responds "I am up $300 tonight, my craps strategy is finally working and if you just let me stay here another 4 days I might end up ahead!" The buddy asks, "but how are you doing for the trip?" and the guy responds, "who cares, I am winning tonight!". That is the Bush spin in a nutshell...