MRHARRYtheHAT
MRHARRYtheHAT
Other sports handicappers may tell you they have the lock of the century or some piece of golden information they found out from their buddy who knows a guy who sold the sports equipment to a little league team in Green Bay, but I don’t do sports handicapping that way – no sir, I do it right. I analyze all games in NFL and make informed decisions based on my years of sports handicapping. I have been diligent in my philosophy, just betting one game at each week[Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games] I never bet spreads over 10, Never a road team, getting 7 more points, Never home steam giving up 7 more points I work off a spreadsheet, Weather,injures, Power ratings, Defense and Offence analyzes, Team coaches comparisons My Betting style>> Press one time on 2nd win and will go back to a Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once. My record speaks for itself and all my threads are posted with SPR sports forum. I'am here to share the wealth, because when you win,I win too.
I AM NO LONGER ON SBR SPORTS FORUM, MY THREADS ARE STILL POSTED. I LEFT FOR LOT REASONS>>>I also have say that this SBR Forum has decreased Its quality of members with fowl language,drunks and pot-heads who think they are handicappers make statements that are allegorical in content...I have was member since 2009. Really sad to identify with these folks...Its really pleasure to be RX Forum... [[[[ I BELIEVE IN SHARING IDEAS AND INFORMATION ON THREADS. ITS REALLY SAD NEW MEMBERS MAKING DISRESPECTFUL ATTITUDE STATEMENTS ABOUT THREADS AND MEMBERS ON SBR SPORTS FORUM. THESE COMMENTS.FROM NEW MEMBERS PROBABLY NEVER MADE A BET IN THERE LIFE , JUST SITTING ON THER COMPUTER HALF JACKED UP ON WHATEVER!!! ON OPEN FORUM SHOWING THERE IGNORANCE .. REALLY TELLS ME LACK OF QUALITY OF NEW MEMBERS WITH SBR SPORTS FORUM 2014..I AM VERY HAPPY TO MEMBER OF RX FORUM WITH SAME INTEGRITY OF WHICH I WRITE POSTS OR THREADS FOR NFL SEASON WITH SAME RESPECT THAT MEMBERS READ MY POSTS.... THANK YOU
Originally Posted by Kevan kazzan to me from Lake Tahoe N.V by E-Mail
This is really interesting that I would like to share with you tatehill2000
There was a time that, before those lines were massaged by bettors throughout the week, there used to be an early line. It was an overnight opening line that Vegas oddsmakers sent to a few, well respected, select professional sports bettors. These bettors would bet the line, with limits, which would then give bookmakers an idea of how to adjust the lines before releasing them to the public. This helped Vegas prepare to balance the line with the "sharps," just like your thread title says Mr.Hat. Once released, betting centers like Louisiana, Chicago, and New York sent much of the action early while the rest of the nation caught up closer to game time. Now, with worldwide gambling so accessible, and so many opinions being read instantly at a places like offshore betting. I wonder if this system is at work anymore. Bookmakers and odds-makers are more or less one and the same anymore and they too may employ "sharps."
Any thoughts Hat?
Something to Consider "tatehill2000"... Assuming that the "juice" (the interest or vig) is 10% (i.e. you must wager $110 to win $100) you must win 11 out of 21 bets to break even, or 52.4%. This gives the house an edge of 4.5%. Hitting 11 out of 21 bets may sound easy to do, but if you have been wagering for some time now like me you know this is not. The average bettor actually picks below 50%. The difference between 50% and 60% does not sound extreme, but over the NFL season it could cost you difference between losing money and making a profit "tatehill2000". Many handicappers claim to be "hitting 80% during season" but I can guarantee that they can not do this on a consistent basis and over the long term. In 2013 season in NFL Bye Week Picks were 57% including 65% (11-6) on the 4* and 5* picks making it a very prosperous year! If you could consistently pick 55% you will significantly increase your original investment. Consistently picking 60% is like batting .400 in Major League Baseball "tatehill2000".
Very Good Luck To You My Friend In NFL Season
MR.HARRYtheHAT
PS ....The Stat's are from J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] power rating analysis considered the best 80% true.
This is really interesting that I would like to share with you tatehill2000
There was a time that, before those lines were massaged by bettors throughout the week, there used to be an early line. It was an overnight opening line that Vegas oddsmakers sent to a few, well respected, select professional sports bettors. These bettors would bet the line, with limits, which would then give bookmakers an idea of how to adjust the lines before releasing them to the public. This helped Vegas prepare to balance the line with the "sharps," just like your thread title says Mr.Hat. Once released, betting centers like Louisiana, Chicago, and New York sent much of the action early while the rest of the nation caught up closer to game time. Now, with worldwide gambling so accessible, and so many opinions being read instantly at a places like offshore betting. I wonder if this system is at work anymore. Bookmakers and odds-makers are more or less one and the same anymore and they too may employ "sharps."
Any thoughts Hat?
Something to Consider "tatehill2000"... Assuming that the "juice" (the interest or vig) is 10% (i.e. you must wager $110 to win $100) you must win 11 out of 21 bets to break even, or 52.4%. This gives the house an edge of 4.5%. Hitting 11 out of 21 bets may sound easy to do, but if you have been wagering for some time now like me you know this is not. The average bettor actually picks below 50%. The difference between 50% and 60% does not sound extreme, but over the NFL season it could cost you difference between losing money and making a profit "tatehill2000". Many handicappers claim to be "hitting 80% during season" but I can guarantee that they can not do this on a consistent basis and over the long term. In 2013 season in NFL Bye Week Picks were 57% including 65% (11-6) on the 4* and 5* picks making it a very prosperous year! If you could consistently pick 55% you will significantly increase your original investment. Consistently picking 60% is like batting .400 in Major League Baseball "tatehill2000".
Very Good Luck To You My Friend In NFL Season
MR.HARRYtheHAT
PS ....The Stat's are from J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] power rating analysis considered the best 80% true.
But it's no longer the Dog at Home that will make your day...
Here's a little work up I did on Home Dogs. The chart represents how well Home-Dogs have performed in each game since 1985. The "price" to the right represents the performance of Home-Dogs over that period. While it is positive, it has most definitely leveled off over the past decade.
Too often, it's touted that there's an edge with Home Dogs, but no longer.
That stated, even though that edge is dulled, there is still value in analyzing Home-Dogs. The swings are periodic and at least up 'till now predictable. We used a Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) taken from stock traders and captured a pretty good strategy.
I don't think I can post any more images in this reply, .....
Here's a little work up I did on Home Dogs. The chart represents how well Home-Dogs have performed in each game since 1985. The "price" to the right represents the performance of Home-Dogs over that period. While it is positive, it has most definitely leveled off over the past decade.
Too often, it's touted that there's an edge with Home Dogs, but no longer.
That stated, even though that edge is dulled, there is still value in analyzing Home-Dogs. The swings are periodic and at least up 'till now predictable. We used a Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) taken from stock traders and captured a pretty good strategy.
I don't think I can post any more images in this reply, .....
Last edited by a moderator:
