Insiders said:
If you are betting a percentage of bankroll, you are automatically pressing a steak. It is a lot of fun when it happens, but can also be hard on the nerves! I mean think about it. You have already won 7 in a row and now you are making your biggest bet of the year looking for number 8? It can be brutal.
my point exactly. Though what Illini says is true about money management and discipline it does NOT guarantee success. You have to "find the value" in a wager or you have NO edge and how you go about doing that can be many different ways. If you don't understand this you will most likely hit 50% of your plays and 50% (versus -107- -110) will put you in the poor house.Fishhead said:
I agree that you have to be playing with an advantage for money management to really help you. If you don't have an edge, throw money management out the window, and gamble. Bet $1,000 on one game, and win or lose, quit for the year. But I guess some people don't mind losing, as long as they can have a little action on the games that they watch. That's okay, too. But me, I play to win.
INSIDERS, I love to play into streaks.
I've participated in a number of internet handicapping forums over the past seven years, but only here at the RX have I seen such a nice collection of people who take it seriously.
Here's my casual analysis of internet sports forum posters.
70% are casual players, coattailers, lurkers
About 15-20% are "newbies", usually younger in age, who want to play serious because they have a decent eye for a sport(s) and/or a decent math mind. However, this particular group is often socially weak and they create more distractions then they do help when they stir up shit or are simply rude to other members.
The final 10-15% are the more serious players who are committed to serious work product in one or more sports. They also know how to tail.
The best way to tail IMHO is to first recognize who the Serious Players are and learn from them.
That doesn't mean the 70% "casual/lurkers" can't also contribute. Each of them in different ways can drop in good ideas and info, plus they provide good reminders to us all of some basics that can be forgotten even by veterans.
======
I firmly believe that any sport except the NFL can be capped to a 55-65% rate of success by someone who is committed to doing the daily and regular work to compile as much info as possible and to learn how to analyze that info. The reason I omit
I believe that learning a specific sport takes at least 3-4 seasons. A person could conceivably learn multiple sports, but must realize that IMHO the "learning curve" involves 20 hours a week at a minimum.
So learning 2 or 3 sports can be done in 3 seasons if you can put in 40-60 hours per week.
That's a bit challenging for most of us.
I believe I've got a pretty good handle on NBA and NHL after 5 and 3.5 seasons respectively.
I've got a decent eye, but less confident of CFB and CBB, so I mostly tail there for now. Same with MLB.
I omit the NFL because in my opinion the season is way too short (16-20 games) and so the various statistical samples are too small for accurate forecasting. NBA and NHL are of course 82-100 games per season and MLB is 162-180.
A five year period will give us a Sample of 4-500 games in NBA/NHL and about 1000 in MLB. Thus teams with consistent rosters and management will be more measureable. The NFL turns over for most teams in as few as 50-100 games over the same five years.
If "I" can learn a sport at that pace, obviuosly others can as well.
My job in longterm sports investing career would then be as follows (with my "Career To Date" listed as CTD.
1) Learn how to cap a sport and gradually expand my total number of sports. I do that by reading and studying how to cap sports. Such information is readily available with a simple internet connection and steady access to a computer.
1a) Learn basic math to where I can recognize and compare percentages better.
1b) Associate with others who take the education and job seriously.
1c) Learn basic cyber "people skills" just as I would in a real live face to face business or school setting. Simply put, learn how to treat people well and recognize when you're not doing it. (Be respectful of criticism from trusted sources).
1d) Learn to recognize where people fit my lead trio of "characters" at the top of this post. Be courteous and congenial to the 70% of casual folks; Ignore the second group during those times when they distract (intentionally or accidentally); and LISTEN, LISTEN, LISTEN to the final group.
MY CTD on Step 1
1) NBA 6th year student, NHL 4th year student, MLB 4th year coming up, CFB and CBB as noted I am still a learning student who follows.
1a) I am fortunate to have entered this occupation with a solid math education. For those less so, the rudimentary math education for being a good investor can be learned at a junior college within a couple of semesters.
Don't be too proud or arrogant to not sharpen up your math skills if that isn't your forte. Being "math weak" is nothing uncommon. A cool part of this day and age is you can improve your math anonymously and privately which should lessen any anxiety about "feeling dumb" or whatever else may be inhibiting you.
1b) The RX.com has proven to be the most useful tool for association in this occupation that I have found in seven years. I also have a few other outlets I've found and like to use. And most important, along the way I've cultivated a few cyber relationships with recognized "serious players".
Remember "serious player" does not always denote a Big Money Winner. It primarily describes someone who is not treating this as a passing fancy or casual weekend fling.
1c) I've been blessed with pretty good people skills for most of my adult life (I'm 45), but confess that translating some of those communication skills to the text-driven internet has been and continues to be a fresh learning experience. Whatever level of ability I've had so far has helped me meet and retain some good cyber capping friends and info sources.
And I'm sure I need to keep learning ways to better communicate with smart people.
Each of us is invited to routinely review our own "people skills" on the internet and in forums like these. Are you getting the help and info you need without having to waste time jacking with folks unduly or fighting with those who might want to aggravate without cause?
Focus on what counts.
1d) Most important is that with patience and I hope in part due to how I communicate (1c above), I've got a list of probably 30-40 people who I really have confidence as fellows and also teachers.
("Fellows" as in "comrades"...both male and female)
==============
FINAL NOTE on above and I hope in harmony with ILLINI's lead post in this thread.
Like many people going to "school" at any age, it's often challenging to do the needed educational work while also working in other parts of our life to make a base income, to raise a family, to serve a public cause etc.
And many of us thus might try to "force" the learning curve. In this business, that is demonstrated by betting over our financial head too early in our career; tailing the wrong people; asking the wrong people for advice; ignoring the advice of the 'right' people; being greedy and finally, being greedy. (smile)
IM very Humble Opinion, I also would close by saying that in my experience I rarely do as well with the needed work unless I have REAL MONEY in play.
That real money could be as small as $2 to $5 per play, but I've noticed that when I'm capping and imaginary betting on paper, I don't do as well.
That doesn't mean I can't cap on paper for a few nites or even a couple weeks. But my real education will come when I learn how to be selective and that selectivity is only pure when you've got something to lose.
Therefore, I MUST be patient and NOT GREEDY.
Being impatient and GREEDY will lead me to break my bank too often and I'll have more days and/or weeks without true $$$.
=====
Learn how to pick a sport at solid 56% or better.
Learn how to share with others in humble fashion.
Learn how to ask for help in respectful fashion.
Be patient.
Don't be greedy.
And over the next 3 to 5 years you'll have the satisfaction of making a decent bit of dough in this profession. And it will be happening with likely 10x less stress than you might at times feel right now.
You'll have some kind of sport to play most every day of the year if you wish because you will either have one of your Learned sports in play, or you will have some trusted allies who share info in places like the RX. ANd you'll know who they are.
That's two cents, plus both a nickel and a quarter in your favorite collection plate ASAP.
steve
I've participated in a number of internet handicapping forums over the past seven years, but only here at the RX have I seen such a nice collection of people who take it seriously.
Here's my casual analysis of internet sports forum posters.
70% are casual players, coattailers, lurkers
About 15-20% are "newbies", usually younger in age, who want to play serious because they have a decent eye for a sport(s) and/or a decent math mind. However, this particular group is often socially weak and they create more distractions then they do help when they stir up shit or are simply rude to other members.
The final 10-15% are the more serious players who are committed to serious work product in one or more sports. They also know how to tail.
The best way to tail IMHO is to first recognize who the Serious Players are and learn from them.
That doesn't mean the 70% "casual/lurkers" can't also contribute. Each of them in different ways can drop in good ideas and info, plus they provide good reminders to us all of some basics that can be forgotten even by veterans.
======
I firmly believe that any sport except the NFL can be capped to a 55-65% rate of success by someone who is committed to doing the daily and regular work to compile as much info as possible and to learn how to analyze that info. The reason I omit
I believe that learning a specific sport takes at least 3-4 seasons. A person could conceivably learn multiple sports, but must realize that IMHO the "learning curve" involves 20 hours a week at a minimum.
So learning 2 or 3 sports can be done in 3 seasons if you can put in 40-60 hours per week.
That's a bit challenging for most of us.
I believe I've got a pretty good handle on NBA and NHL after 5 and 3.5 seasons respectively.
I've got a decent eye, but less confident of CFB and CBB, so I mostly tail there for now. Same with MLB.
I omit the NFL because in my opinion the season is way too short (16-20 games) and so the various statistical samples are too small for accurate forecasting. NBA and NHL are of course 82-100 games per season and MLB is 162-180.
A five year period will give us a Sample of 4-500 games in NBA/NHL and about 1000 in MLB. Thus teams with consistent rosters and management will be more measureable. The NFL turns over for most teams in as few as 50-100 games over the same five years.
If "I" can learn a sport at that pace, obviuosly others can as well.
My job in longterm sports investing career would then be as follows (with my "Career To Date" listed as CTD.
1) Learn how to cap a sport and gradually expand my total number of sports. I do that by reading and studying how to cap sports. Such information is readily available with a simple internet connection and steady access to a computer.
1a) Learn basic math to where I can recognize and compare percentages better.
1b) Associate with others who take the education and job seriously.
1c) Learn basic cyber "people skills" just as I would in a real live face to face business or school setting. Simply put, learn how to treat people well and recognize when you're not doing it. (Be respectful of criticism from trusted sources).
1d) Learn to recognize where people fit my lead trio of "characters" at the top of this post. Be courteous and congenial to the 70% of casual folks; Ignore the second group during those times when they distract (intentionally or accidentally); and LISTEN, LISTEN, LISTEN to the final group.
MY CTD on Step 1
1) NBA 6th year student, NHL 4th year student, MLB 4th year coming up, CFB and CBB as noted I am still a learning student who follows.
1a) I am fortunate to have entered this occupation with a solid math education. For those less so, the rudimentary math education for being a good investor can be learned at a junior college within a couple of semesters.
Don't be too proud or arrogant to not sharpen up your math skills if that isn't your forte. Being "math weak" is nothing uncommon. A cool part of this day and age is you can improve your math anonymously and privately which should lessen any anxiety about "feeling dumb" or whatever else may be inhibiting you.
1b) The RX.com has proven to be the most useful tool for association in this occupation that I have found in seven years. I also have a few other outlets I've found and like to use. And most important, along the way I've cultivated a few cyber relationships with recognized "serious players".
Remember "serious player" does not always denote a Big Money Winner. It primarily describes someone who is not treating this as a passing fancy or casual weekend fling.
1c) I've been blessed with pretty good people skills for most of my adult life (I'm 45), but confess that translating some of those communication skills to the text-driven internet has been and continues to be a fresh learning experience. Whatever level of ability I've had so far has helped me meet and retain some good cyber capping friends and info sources.
And I'm sure I need to keep learning ways to better communicate with smart people.
Each of us is invited to routinely review our own "people skills" on the internet and in forums like these. Are you getting the help and info you need without having to waste time jacking with folks unduly or fighting with those who might want to aggravate without cause?
Focus on what counts.
1d) Most important is that with patience and I hope in part due to how I communicate (1c above), I've got a list of probably 30-40 people who I really have confidence as fellows and also teachers.
("Fellows" as in "comrades"...both male and female)
==============
FINAL NOTE on above and I hope in harmony with ILLINI's lead post in this thread.
Like many people going to "school" at any age, it's often challenging to do the needed educational work while also working in other parts of our life to make a base income, to raise a family, to serve a public cause etc.
And many of us thus might try to "force" the learning curve. In this business, that is demonstrated by betting over our financial head too early in our career; tailing the wrong people; asking the wrong people for advice; ignoring the advice of the 'right' people; being greedy and finally, being greedy. (smile)
IM very Humble Opinion, I also would close by saying that in my experience I rarely do as well with the needed work unless I have REAL MONEY in play.
That real money could be as small as $2 to $5 per play, but I've noticed that when I'm capping and imaginary betting on paper, I don't do as well.
That doesn't mean I can't cap on paper for a few nites or even a couple weeks. But my real education will come when I learn how to be selective and that selectivity is only pure when you've got something to lose.
Therefore, I MUST be patient and NOT GREEDY.
Being impatient and GREEDY will lead me to break my bank too often and I'll have more days and/or weeks without true $$$.
=====
Learn how to pick a sport at solid 56% or better.
Learn how to share with others in humble fashion.
Learn how to ask for help in respectful fashion.
Be patient.
Don't be greedy.
And over the next 3 to 5 years you'll have the satisfaction of making a decent bit of dough in this profession. And it will be happening with likely 10x less stress than you might at times feel right now.
You'll have some kind of sport to play most every day of the year if you wish because you will either have one of your Learned sports in play, or you will have some trusted allies who share info in places like the RX. ANd you'll know who they are.
That's two cents, plus both a nickel and a quarter in your favorite collection plate ASAP.
steve
barman.
Now that was a GREAT read, and YES i do agree with your line of thinking.
Yes the NFL is Uncappable for the shortness of the season amoung many other factors, thats why i learned long ago that it was not for me into Big bets.
Now CFB on the other hand i look at with a much different viewpoint by far, but ONLY 2 conferences at most do i try to consintrate into weekly.
Many here just keep pounding the "grind" and money management systems, and if that is their cup of tea, to that degree of fullness, then so be it.
I agree we must ALL have some sort of system iinto money management, but i myself have had better luck, and made more money by trying to catch "the Streak" and playing it for Full Value.
If i would have Only caught that ACE ACE String of Winners throughout the NFL playoff's which was something to behold. I came into that Streak late and did show a nice +, but boy that would have been the one for ALL times in that TOUGH NFL. But again those half time bets laying points with last second field goal try by the Seattle group, makes those BIg bets there NOT for the faint of heart also.
Again enjoyed reading your thoughts.
Now that was a GREAT read, and YES i do agree with your line of thinking.
Yes the NFL is Uncappable for the shortness of the season amoung many other factors, thats why i learned long ago that it was not for me into Big bets.
Now CFB on the other hand i look at with a much different viewpoint by far, but ONLY 2 conferences at most do i try to consintrate into weekly.
Many here just keep pounding the "grind" and money management systems, and if that is their cup of tea, to that degree of fullness, then so be it.
I agree we must ALL have some sort of system iinto money management, but i myself have had better luck, and made more money by trying to catch "the Streak" and playing it for Full Value.
If i would have Only caught that ACE ACE String of Winners throughout the NFL playoff's which was something to behold. I came into that Streak late and did show a nice +, but boy that would have been the one for ALL times in that TOUGH NFL. But again those half time bets laying points with last second field goal try by the Seattle group, makes those BIg bets there NOT for the faint of heart also.
Again enjoyed reading your thoughts.
Insiders said:
IN BASESBALL:
If a bad team wins 5 in a row or a good team looses 5 in a row. I will bet against the streak for the next 10 games.
I usually cancel the blanket bet and take a profit before it reaches 10 games.
I know it is correct to bet on streaks rather than against them. I never seem to time it right betting with the streak.
