EDG: If you can see the reasons, seems like you're contradicting yourself - but, there are several reasons:
(1) You bet a future with the sole purpose of hedging it should it become profitable, when you decide the future's odds are a great value relative to the risk
(2) Your expectations concerning the performance of a team were wrong to begin with, and rather than lose all of your money because you cannot admit you were wrong, you pull it off the table with a hedge. It's hard to admit one is wrong, of course. This is especially true when considering a series bet.
(3) You need to avoid losing the money more than you need to win it, perhaps due to changed circumstances (baby needs a new pair of shoes, Pamela Anderson asks for a loan, etc)
(4) A key injury to a key player or player changes the nature of a team, to the point you don't want the bet
(5) A hunch - people wrongly hedge based on hunches
(1) You bet a future with the sole purpose of hedging it should it become profitable, when you decide the future's odds are a great value relative to the risk
(2) Your expectations concerning the performance of a team were wrong to begin with, and rather than lose all of your money because you cannot admit you were wrong, you pull it off the table with a hedge. It's hard to admit one is wrong, of course. This is especially true when considering a series bet.
(3) You need to avoid losing the money more than you need to win it, perhaps due to changed circumstances (baby needs a new pair of shoes, Pamela Anderson asks for a loan, etc)
(4) A key injury to a key player or player changes the nature of a team, to the point you don't want the bet
(5) A hunch - people wrongly hedge based on hunches
Psychologically it's easier to take. Let's say there are two scenarios:
(a) You lose 100 dimes then win 110 dimes
(b) You win 5 dimes and win 5 dimes
In both cases you're 10 dimes up but option (b) was no doubt the easiest to handle. Option (a) would leave you moody, depressed, massive psychological swings etc.
That's why you hedge
(a) You lose 100 dimes then win 110 dimes
(b) You win 5 dimes and win 5 dimes
In both cases you're 10 dimes up but option (b) was no doubt the easiest to handle. Option (a) would leave you moody, depressed, massive psychological swings etc.
That's why you hedge
Hedging isn't inherently wrong but should be limited as much as possible as you're paying double juice. I never used to do much at all until i started using exchanges like betfair where you pay commission on your net winnings on the whole market than on one selection.
This means that say for example i bet a future and decided if they got to the final stage that i wanted to bet the other team this would actually guarantee a return and reduce my commission as i would have less net winnings.
Further there are times where i back a team knowing full well they won't win but back them anyway beleiving that their price will shorten and then lay the bet at that shorter price - this is also hedging - this way i don't need to back a winner to make a profit just back a team who's odds will shorten - makes life a lot easier and you have a more steady income stream this way.
This means that say for example i bet a future and decided if they got to the final stage that i wanted to bet the other team this would actually guarantee a return and reduce my commission as i would have less net winnings.
Further there are times where i back a team knowing full well they won't win but back them anyway beleiving that their price will shorten and then lay the bet at that shorter price - this is also hedging - this way i don't need to back a winner to make a profit just back a team who's odds will shorten - makes life a lot easier and you have a more steady income stream this way.
If your goal is to gain financially over amusing yourself..always crunch the profit!
By the time you're down to a single wager left on parlays, you've already won your bet, to simply allow a 50/50 prop to possibly domino your payday of much larger proportion to ashes without taking all of the buy-in and/or a profit(w/middle oppurtunities via moves, number buys, moneylines, or teasers) is fiscally foolish.
By the time you're down to a single wager left on parlays, you've already won your bet, to simply allow a 50/50 prop to possibly domino your payday of much larger proportion to ashes without taking all of the buy-in and/or a profit(w/middle oppurtunities via moves, number buys, moneylines, or teasers) is fiscally foolish.
HEDGING a bet actually is gambling - only difference is that you have changed the odds.
Say you take Team A -2.5 and the hedge when it goes to 3.5. If both bets were laid at -110, you are laying 10 to win 200.
So instead of betting at 10/11 odds, you're now betting at 20/1 odds.
In baseball, if you take a team -120 and then hedge half at +140, your final play might be +115 but you still have a bet with half your stakes.
Say you take Team A -2.5 and the hedge when it goes to 3.5. If both bets were laid at -110, you are laying 10 to win 200.
So instead of betting at 10/11 odds, you're now betting at 20/1 odds.
In baseball, if you take a team -120 and then hedge half at +140, your final play might be +115 but you still have a bet with half your stakes.
If one can guarantee a bet, then guaranteeing it should be looked at. No single bet is safe.
How many times your normal bet will you win with the hedge?(ask yourself) The chance to win several more times your normal wager without risk is definately an opportunity worth looking at.
Good thread
How many times your normal bet will you win with the hedge?(ask yourself) The chance to win several more times your normal wager without risk is definately an opportunity worth looking at.
Good thread
Hedging is usually a poor choice. I have had many situations where I am winning a game, and at the half i hedge, betting the opposite team thinking i have a middle opportunity. The middle rarely happens, and I end up giving away profits. I did it tonight with the Georgia Tech game. i was looking pretty good, and then started thinking that I may lose, and I gave away profits. Stay away from hedging. Don't be an idiot like I am, and you will have more dinero at the end of the day.
Here is exactly why you hedge...
I had florida to win the world series 1 unit to win 200 in June. I did not hedge in any major way during divisional championships (except some 1 unit bets on the Cubs in certain games). Now they're in the WS and my choices are: (a) win 200 units if the marlins win or (b)win nothing if the Marlins lose. INstead I took the Yankees after the they lost the first game at -120 for the series. So I bet 60 units to win 50. Now if Marlins win I am +140 units, and if the Yanks win I am +49 units.
Hedging is an appropriate way to balance out your risk, and sometimes lock in a profit. If you're in it to me macho and say "I told you so" then you shouldn't hedge. But a smart bettor will weigh his risk vs reward and hedge appropriately. The decision whether to hedge and for how much is where the judgement comes into play.
I had florida to win the world series 1 unit to win 200 in June. I did not hedge in any major way during divisional championships (except some 1 unit bets on the Cubs in certain games). Now they're in the WS and my choices are: (a) win 200 units if the marlins win or (b)win nothing if the Marlins lose. INstead I took the Yankees after the they lost the first game at -120 for the series. So I bet 60 units to win 50. Now if Marlins win I am +140 units, and if the Yanks win I am +49 units.
Hedging is an appropriate way to balance out your risk, and sometimes lock in a profit. If you're in it to me macho and say "I told you so" then you shouldn't hedge. But a smart bettor will weigh his risk vs reward and hedge appropriately. The decision whether to hedge and for how much is where the judgement comes into play.
EGD,
The most successful sports bettors never hedge.
Guys like Baxter, Walters, Tiger & Magic understand the importance of pounding weak numbers without diluting their returns with imaginary posev on the other side.
Even younger guys that are highly regarded LOL at the endless wishes of some to lay off all risk with no regard of what the real cost associated with First Bonus Betting is. Opinionless will yell free money from the rafters with zero clue what it actually costs to be free.
The most successful sports bettors never hedge.
Guys like Baxter, Walters, Tiger & Magic understand the importance of pounding weak numbers without diluting their returns with imaginary posev on the other side.
Even younger guys that are highly regarded LOL at the endless wishes of some to lay off all risk with no regard of what the real cost associated with First Bonus Betting is. Opinionless will yell free money from the rafters with zero clue what it actually costs to be free.
Sodium, that list often has the winner before the ball is kicked and knows so, a much better position of strength than John Q Coinflipper in deciding on whether to at least take down the buy-in &/or a profit.
If Baxter or Walters are waiting on an SEC score for a final team to come in..They're on a golf coure playing(not together!) for as much a hole as the game itself, with considerable more doubt of the putt than score.
P.S. Those guys parlay?
If Baxter or Walters are waiting on an SEC score for a final team to come in..They're on a golf coure playing(not together!) for as much a hole as the game itself, with considerable more doubt of the putt than score.
P.S. Those guys parlay?
I don't necessarily agree it's always wrong to do it but you are giving up value when you do. No question about it. Let's say out of 50 horses you picked one horse at 400 to 1 to win a racing tournament. After some qualifying races it was now down to 2 horses, your horse is now 3 to 1. If you are hedging off your bet then you are losing big $$$$ in the game of chance. Big bucks. It's like going to the track and them telling you that all day you can bet a 3-1 horse and get paid 400-1 odds on him if he wins. I like your position best without doing a thing.
Anyway I still feel that it's an individual thing and hedging may be the thing to do for some. I've hedged in the past but I knew what I was giving up and in exchange for what. Was it the right thing to hedge? Nope, not by the numbers it isn't. But sometmes for peace of mind, sleep, bankroll and blood pressure concerns it's the right thing for some.
Anyway I still feel that it's an individual thing and hedging may be the thing to do for some. I've hedged in the past but I knew what I was giving up and in exchange for what. Was it the right thing to hedge? Nope, not by the numbers it isn't. But sometmes for peace of mind, sleep, bankroll and blood pressure concerns it's the right thing for some.
If you are a $100 bettor and played the following parlay.
Select #1 : College Football
Syracuse 10/25/2003 9:00:01 AM - PST
Spread +7 -110 for Game
Select #2 : College Football
Illinois 10/25/2003 9:00:01 AM - PST
Spread +15 -110 for Game
Select #3 : College Football
Louisville 10/25/2003 11:00:01 AM - PST
Spread -16½ -110 for Game
Select #4 : College Football
Arkansas 10/25/2003 4:15:01 PM - PST
Spread pk -110 for Game
Select #5 : College Football
Central Michigan 10/25/2003 1:00:01 PM - PST
Spread +7 -110 for Game
Amount : Risking 50.00 To Win 1,050.00 USD
If Arkansas @ 4:15 is the last leg and all I need to win the parlay, then I am going to hedge with the other side on that game. In this case I am guaranteeing myself up to 5X my normal bet of $100. That is value to me.
Select #1 : College Football
Syracuse 10/25/2003 9:00:01 AM - PST
Spread +7 -110 for Game
Select #2 : College Football
Illinois 10/25/2003 9:00:01 AM - PST
Spread +15 -110 for Game
Select #3 : College Football
Louisville 10/25/2003 11:00:01 AM - PST
Spread -16½ -110 for Game
Select #4 : College Football
Arkansas 10/25/2003 4:15:01 PM - PST
Spread pk -110 for Game
Select #5 : College Football
Central Michigan 10/25/2003 1:00:01 PM - PST
Spread +7 -110 for Game
Amount : Risking 50.00 To Win 1,050.00 USD
If Arkansas @ 4:15 is the last leg and all I need to win the parlay, then I am going to hedge with the other side on that game. In this case I am guaranteeing myself up to 5X my normal bet of $100. That is value to me.
I have bet probably 3 futures in the last 2 years - one on an NBA series, one on an NHL series, and the final one on the Cubs to win the WS.
All were taken with the specific purpose to cash out on what I considered to be very overly generous odds. The NHL bet I lost, it was never hedgeable, the other 2 I cashed extremely well on by hedging, and interestingly enough, both of the futures bets actually lost outright.
Admittedly, relatively few gamblers enter into futures bet with the plan to hedge beforehand, so I understand Pat's point to a degree, especially a gambler who is CONSTANTLY making and losing futures bets - for such a gambler, his overall picture of losses from prior futures bets probably gives him an incentive to let it ride, otherwise he'll never realize the profits that will (hopefully) more than cover his past losses.
Another point I made earlier was about injuries - let's say hypothetically that you bet $1,000 on the Celtics to win $40,000 if they won the NBA championship this year. And they had an amazing run, and managed to get into the championship series (but don't have the home court advantage), except you find out 1 day prior to the first game that 1 of the starters pulled a hamstring in practice and 3 others are ill with a pretty bad flu. Obviously I'm exaggerating to make a point - here, a rational, intelligent non-degenerate gambler would hedge like a mofo. Point being, you have to consider the situation.
Here's another example of a hedge I did last night - when I thought Enrique Wilson would lead-off, I put some coin on him to score the first run and a little on Juan Pierre as a hedge. But late, I found out that hot-hitting Jeter would be leading off, so I hedged on him again. In other words, I hedged due to changing information. Result - I cashed half a unit, but more importantly I avoided losing.
Different types of hedging for different reasons.
All were taken with the specific purpose to cash out on what I considered to be very overly generous odds. The NHL bet I lost, it was never hedgeable, the other 2 I cashed extremely well on by hedging, and interestingly enough, both of the futures bets actually lost outright.
Admittedly, relatively few gamblers enter into futures bet with the plan to hedge beforehand, so I understand Pat's point to a degree, especially a gambler who is CONSTANTLY making and losing futures bets - for such a gambler, his overall picture of losses from prior futures bets probably gives him an incentive to let it ride, otherwise he'll never realize the profits that will (hopefully) more than cover his past losses.
Another point I made earlier was about injuries - let's say hypothetically that you bet $1,000 on the Celtics to win $40,000 if they won the NBA championship this year. And they had an amazing run, and managed to get into the championship series (but don't have the home court advantage), except you find out 1 day prior to the first game that 1 of the starters pulled a hamstring in practice and 3 others are ill with a pretty bad flu. Obviously I'm exaggerating to make a point - here, a rational, intelligent non-degenerate gambler would hedge like a mofo. Point being, you have to consider the situation.
Here's another example of a hedge I did last night - when I thought Enrique Wilson would lead-off, I put some coin on him to score the first run and a little on Juan Pierre as a hedge. But late, I found out that hot-hitting Jeter would be leading off, so I hedged on him again. In other words, I hedged due to changing information. Result - I cashed half a unit, but more importantly I avoided losing.
Different types of hedging for different reasons.
