I know that nobody does this, but wouldn't it make things so much easier if we did? If we just had to decide if it was a play or not a play, and then make the bet at the best line. If there were no such things as "huge plays" that discourage us when we lose them, wouldn't it be easier to pick winners? Winning percentage means very little unless you are flat betting. You could go 60% for the year, yet lose money if you lose the bigger plays. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm starting to think that flat betting might be the best route to go. Just pick winners, baby, and if you lose a few, don't sweat it. Keep grinding.