Nighthwak, game push on '3' is much higher than 5.26%. But I don't agree that the percentage should be higher for a first half than for game. The reason is: OVERTIME. When you're tied at the half, you're tied at the half. When you're tied at the end, you end up with someone winning by 3 (90% of the time). IMO a tie at the half is generally more likely than either individual side leading by 3.
I went for it anyway because I thought for sure it was good value. But I'm not that sharp. If all of you guys think that most games are likely to be a tie at the end of the half, then wouldn't it be wise to take the underdog in every single NFL first half. Are you guys saying that there would be positive value in these plays?
Basically you are risking 20 cents that it will be a tie on the KC side.
The bet doesn't make sense to me. It makes just about as much sense as betting Balt -2.5 -110 and KC +3 -110. You are simply looking to side the game.
If the game doesn't land on KC down by 3 then you can win nothing. The ONLY way to make this wager a winner is by a single outcome.
I do not know the stats for half time games that are right on a -3 differential for the "right" side. i.e. teams +3, but I would wager that they are not common enough to make this wager a correct one.
But if you are feeling lucky and want to take a shot then go for it I guess.
The bet doesn't make sense to me. It makes just about as much sense as betting Balt -2.5 -110 and KC +3 -110. You are simply looking to side the game.
If the game doesn't land on KC down by 3 then you can win nothing. The ONLY way to make this wager a winner is by a single outcome.
I do not know the stats for half time games that are right on a -3 differential for the "right" side. i.e. teams +3, but I would wager that they are not common enough to make this wager a correct one.
But if you are feeling lucky and want to take a shot then go for it I guess.
Did the book have a ML for the first half with that -2.5? If it was -140/145, that might have been the better way to go. At least a shot of getting some sort of middle, and only costing slightly more to get it. But now you are paying 40 cents rather than 20. But in a game like this one is apt to be, fora half, the points are probably worth more than in a normal situation.
Woody:
You are dead wrong. If I were playing KC+3.5 -120 Bmore -2.5 -120 then I would be paying 20 cents juice to win a dollar. That would be 5 to one. Assuming the true line is Bmore -3, I have around 50% of the outcomes where I will not lose any juice. For example Bmore up by 4 or more at half I break even on the deal.
Do you see it that way?
Hitman
You are dead wrong. If I were playing KC+3.5 -120 Bmore -2.5 -120 then I would be paying 20 cents juice to win a dollar. That would be 5 to one. Assuming the true line is Bmore -3, I have around 50% of the outcomes where I will not lose any juice. For example Bmore up by 4 or more at half I break even on the deal.
Do you see it that way?
Hitman
How do you figure you are even?
Half time score 7-3 Balt ahead.
240 on Balt -2.5 -120 = +200
200 on KC +3 +100= -200
That is breaking even. If KC covers you lose 40 on the Balt bet. Anyway you slice it, you are risking 20 cents per dollar for a push.
If the odds were inverted: Balt -2.5 +100 and KC +3 -120, then you would have a slight advatage, since the worse odds had a chance for a tie for the player.
Half time score 7-3 Balt ahead.
240 on Balt -2.5 -120 = +200
200 on KC +3 +100= -200
That is breaking even. If KC covers you lose 40 on the Balt bet. Anyway you slice it, you are risking 20 cents per dollar for a push.
If the odds were inverted: Balt -2.5 +100 and KC +3 -120, then you would have a slight advatage, since the worse odds had a chance for a tie for the player.
Sorry, I was referring only to the outcome where you win the $1 and made a short response. I was basically looking at the risk-reward ratio.Hitman26 said:
Obviously if it goes one way you lose 20 cents and if it goes the other you break even. If these results are equally likely then you're risking 10 cents to win $1 and need to hit it on the nose more than 10% for a winning position.
Thanks for pointing that out.
Hitman YES, on that one there is no risk whatsoever. Your worst scenario is a break even, but every game that landed on 3 would win. You only need one to make money.As long as you got those odds and those numbers you could bet that way a thousand times and not lose money.
But that isn't exactly the odd/hold I put up. I used -2.5 +100 and +3 -120. That way your worse odds/vig/hold (-120) has the chance for the tie. Rather than the -2.5 that you have. When you can get a tie it is always easier to eat the bigger number. Not sure of the math, since no one can say for certain. But in real world scenarios a tie isn't a loss, and that tie is a winner the other way for "better" odds.
The only way to work it out is to know every single game outcome in NFL history under these circumstances. Even then it only gives you an historical probability, not a mathematical certainty.
Math is a tricky thing in sports. It is all just guess work, even with all the answers. Because the data is constantly changing. The finish tonight in fact will alter the results used to base a play we made tonight. So while one way might reinforce the play in the future, a finish the other way might tip the scales to the other side. That is why it is very tricky, and actually pretty subjective.
Most guys wouldn't make the play you gave me where you cannot lose. Mostly because they don't get it or won't waste their time for a few nickles. Ironically that is what the books are doing for the most part, and we all know who gets most of the money in the end.
But that isn't exactly the odd/hold I put up. I used -2.5 +100 and +3 -120. That way your worse odds/vig/hold (-120) has the chance for the tie. Rather than the -2.5 that you have. When you can get a tie it is always easier to eat the bigger number. Not sure of the math, since no one can say for certain. But in real world scenarios a tie isn't a loss, and that tie is a winner the other way for "better" odds.
The only way to work it out is to know every single game outcome in NFL history under these circumstances. Even then it only gives you an historical probability, not a mathematical certainty.
Math is a tricky thing in sports. It is all just guess work, even with all the answers. Because the data is constantly changing. The finish tonight in fact will alter the results used to base a play we made tonight. So while one way might reinforce the play in the future, a finish the other way might tip the scales to the other side. That is why it is very tricky, and actually pretty subjective.
Most guys wouldn't make the play you gave me where you cannot lose. Mostly because they don't get it or won't waste their time for a few nickles. Ironically that is what the books are doing for the most part, and we all know who gets most of the money in the end.
