is this a poor strategy? plse don't be gentle

[WilliamMoney]

starting with a $5000 bankroll,my goal is to earn a profit of 25%($1250).i am going to attempt this by playing 2team parlays that offer 13/5 odds or better.(i know what you must be thinking) i am playing one parlay at a time sequentially so that when i win a play, i bank the earnings and start again at the top of the sequence. here is the sequence:
bet $wagered $won/$lost $in bnk.
#1 $10
#2 $20
#3 $30
#4 $50
#5 $80
#6 $110
#7 $160
#8 $200
#9 $300
#10 $425
my goal is to gain a profit of $1200 before losing #10 sequence which i realize will eventually happen. i also want to track the games as if they were played individually risking 2% of bank per play($100). is probability of success very unlikely, extremely unlikely, or 0? responses appreciated. thank you.

 

[spidermonkey]

expecting to turn a profit playing only parlays? i would say your chances are pretty slim.

 

[WilliamMoney]

you are probably right, but at least this will ensure that i dont risk too much on 1 play. if i fail i know it wont cost me entire bank.

#1 $10 to win$37

texas+3.5(-102)
unlv(+139)

 

[JDeuce]

One potential small problem I think you'll encounter is not many places accept $160 or $425 parlays...so you might have to spread your action around to two seperate books who happen to have the same lines. That shouldn't be a huge deal though...

You'd also be limiting yourself to one parlay at a time...but you could play 2 noon games, two 2pm games, etc...

You put a UNLV underdog money line in there, which is a disadvantage for you. Games against the spread are (in theory) a 50/50 proposition. Money line dogs have less than a 50% chance of winning, so you might want to reconsider using those...

The laws of probability say you'll hit 1 out of every 4 of these parlays...so if you hit an 0 for 10 string, you'd have to be doing something really wrong. If I was flipping coins with someone and they told me I wouldn't get an agreed upon two toss outcome at least one time out of 10, I'd take that bet all day long.

Since you're trying to win money in a systematic fashion, you'd almost be better off handicapping these games unscientifically (like flipping coins to see who you'll bet on) and leave everything out of your hands. You'll be in this for a very long boring haul before seeing a significant profit, but I'd be curious to see how this turns out. You should have a decent shot at turning out some profit after time...

 

[CedarCreaker]

Playing 2 games (bet 1 first..bet winnings and initial bet on the 2nd..example rather than a $100 parlay bet $100 on first game and WHEN win bet $200 on 2nd game...made $300 profit rather than $260) provides more profit than just a 2 team parlay...and a 3 team parlay is by far the best parlay bet arounfd (6-1)...somewhere in the Handicapping or betting thread is a great explanation...hope this helps and is clear

Cedar

 

[jwunderdog]

Cedar is right. Very poor strategy.

 

[WilliamMoney]

thanks for the feedback guys! jdeuce,in order for me to achieve a 25% increase in my bank(in this case $1250),using sound $ management-risking 1% of bank on each and every play or $50-i woulb need to compile a record that produces +41 games assuming 11/10 odds. at a 56% win rate i would need to play 345 games.this would give me 193 wins and 152 losses. 193winsx$46=$8878. 152lossx$50=$7600. $8878-$7600=$1278 profit. playing 345 games would personally take me close to 4 months, and i still need to win at a very difficult 56%! i feel that slow, long, and boring is just the way it is in realizing a return on investment in sports wagering. although this parlay method will also take time(especially if successful) i dont need to have a 56 overall winning % be profitable-i can lose 14 games in a row and still have 3 chances remaining in the sequence to go 2-0 and win a parlay and add $ to bank. the fact that i have little confidence in my ability to hit 56% of a large number of plays has everything to do with considering this strategy! thanks alot william

 

[truelyhandicapping]

have you thought about doing 3 2 team parlays, using three teams. all you have to do is win 2 of 3 to win money each night. and if you go 3 for 3 you clean house.

wish you luck

 

[tsm123]

Have you considered this is very late in the season and many veteran handicappers will tell you this is not the very best time to have an advantage over your opponent. Contrary to what others may think, neither are the conference playoffs or March Madness. I don't have a problem with your betting strategy...only the timing of when you're putting it to the test.

Just my .02

 

[jwunderdog]

Look at Cedars post, unless the games go off at the same time you get better odds by just progessive betting. Cedar made one mistakes since he didn't include juice on the straight bets but you still come out better.