Is the trap set?

[Jarbo]

I am curious how Penn St. can be favored vs. Iowa - and it keeps going up!

And why Missouri is favored over Okla St.

Both of these lines seem way off to me. I know about let downs, natural rivals, what a week off can do, Joe Pa's ramblings etc. I'll let you experts tell me how stupid I am for even bringing it up.:umn:


Luck

 

[BigPete]

I dont see any trap but maybe some value on the home team:

---------Off. Yds ----Def Yds
Mizzuo ---402 ---------266
Okla St--- 404 --------361

Iowa -----332---------302
PSU ------356---------305

Couple the fact they home team should have even better stats at home and I see value in Mizzou and PSU. I see traps in Wisconsin and FSU.

 

[sphincter]

both have hammered some patsies....in missou`s case you`ve got ball st...baylor and arkansas st.......weak...

okie st`s seen smu...tulsa and iowa st.....and tulsa and iowa st may not really be patsies....

okie st has 2 quality wins on the road that weren`t really close...(colorado and ucla)....

missou struggled with colorado at home....

i`m sort of surprised that everyone has jumped away from okie st off one bad performance....vs what may be the hottest team in the country...

it`s 3.5....i bought the half and grabbed the 4....

i don`t believe that missou is the better club...

 

[BigPete]

Okie State had a -16 yard margin to Colorado as opposed Mizzous +166 yard margin to Colorado.

Also, I forget the covering percentage of lower ranked teams giving points to higher ranked teams but it is pretty good in favor of the lower ranked team.

Just food for thought.

 

[WinOne]

Realize that Mizzou has the first or second best defense in the B12 and had it not been for offensive TO's they probably beat UT in Austin. Ok St in a bad spot as they cannot throw the ball so teams with good defense will put 9 in the box as Aggies did. Mizzou defense far better than Aggies. Also note that Okie St may be looking ahead to OU which is big instate rivalry game for them "BEDLAM!!" and they typically don't travel well before OU game.

As for Iowa, didn't they just lose their 5th RB for the season?

WinOne!!

 

[sphincter]

pete....missou could well beat okie st...they are,after all,at home and are favorites....


but,the stats vs colorado are garbage.....okie st was up on colorado 21-0 at the half....28-0 at the end of the 3rd......obviously most of the yardage was passing yardage in garbage time....

texas?....they are beginning to look like a pretty overrated item right about now....who else did missou beat?....ball st....baylor....arkansas st...

there are some trends that point to missou....not denegrating anybody`s play.....

the point about oklahoma on deck is a concern and keeps me from playing this heavier...but,a loss to missou and a likely loss to oklahoma may well ruin okie st`s season....if they aren`t focused after getting spanked at home,they`ll lose...no doubt...

just my opinion that 4 points is a little steep,imo....vs a club that seems to play pretty well on the road....and was a darling before running into what appears to be a texas a+m buzzsaw.....

g.l. fellas...

 

[sphincter]

let me clarify......i came on a little strong...

.i was taking the opposing point of view on missou/okie st.....just making a counterpoint...

it`s not a game i feel strongly about....i can see a scenario in which missou,who is perennially strong at home,wins and covers this game...

okie st,shockingly,is 4-0 ats the last 4 prior to oklahoma.....

go figure....

still,the oklahoma on deck aspect is one that i think is enough to keep me from actually plopping down cash here....i had it pencilled in,but i don`t think i can play it...

sorry if i came on a little strong....not my intention....

a tough game for me to wager on...

didn`t mean to throw a hissy...lol

g.l.

 

[WinOne]

Sphincter, All:
Not wanting to come off strong or bashing as you know I don't roll that way. OSU 4-0 record is as follows since '00: OSU has played Baylor 3 times and LY Ags team, probably why they were 4-0. Since '85 OSU on the road before OU Pokes are 4-7. Of the 4 wins (2Bay/2A&M). The 7 losses in that time are (2KSU, 2Col, Neb, TCU, ISU). I dont think this Mizzou team fits the bill of a Baylor team or LY Ags team which went into the tank early.

Also remember that this pokes team is extremely 1 dimensional and they will face 8-9 men in the box. Also not sure they will be able to handle mobile BSmith since they had little success against Ags QB McNeil.

I wonder where Shortbus is when you need him. I believe he follows OSU religiously.

WinOne!!

 

[mws]

I was surprised by both these lines as well, but as WinOne said, these are probably matchup driven. Now that Iowa is down to their fifth-string TB they'll need to throw a lot, which plays to Penn State's strength. Mizzou has a strong run D that should have success against an OSU O that doesn't throw too well.

 

[sphincter]

actually,the comparison between mcneil and smith is very valid....i believe,at least offensively,mcneil has the stronger supporting cast....

another thing that makes me cautious about taking okie st is that they are relatively young and inexperienced on offense......

going on the road vs a top drawer big 12 program with an inexperienced squad isn`t a good thing....even though the ucla and colorado wins were impressive.....

i agree....where is shortbus?.....

 

[WinOne]

I happen to think OSU is in a bad spot. I will play Mizzou big. I love the spot that OSU is in having their bubble burst LW and OU on deck. Mizzou knows they have to win to have shot at B12 North. They have all the key characters at home. This is the last South opponent they have to get by. I'd like to think they will be ready.

WinOne!!

 

[shortbus]

Misery did lost to Troy.

The yardage comparison vs. CU would not be a qualifying stat to use because of field position. I'd say that for all games when looking at osu's yardage. They had the ball on SMU's side of the field to start nearly every time.

Not saying it's a reason to bet anyone, just not a good guage.

CU dropped a TON of passes against osu right in their hands, aTm dropped a couple...so it goes the other way there.

OSU is a quality team though, who got off to a horrendous start last weekend. If they don't turn the ball over, they stay in the game because they can control the ground game. They are NOT a come from behind team, and you witnessed it if you watched their 4th quarter come from behind drives that ate up nearly 6 minutes per drive.

That's because there is no confidence in the qb to throw the ball accurately down the field.

If Misery watched the aTm game they will come out with a similar offensive gameplan using Smith as a weapon.

OSU was rushing three and dropping 8 but McNeal had all day to throw. DUMB. He was easily able to run almost every down. If osu comes out with the same gameplan, the results will likely be the same.

DE Nate Peterson is probably out with a torn acl, but tackle Brad Girtman will finally be "allowed" to play. He is the best defensive lineman on the team, but may be rusty. I'd say that will even things out there.

Misery would be good to take adavantage of mismatches on the linebackers in short crossing situations, as well as getting their big TE matched up with 5'7" Daniel McLemore if they can. He has been out-heighted a lot since Darrent Williams went out with a broken arm.

 

[shortbus]

actually,the comparison between mcneil and smith is very valid....i believe,at least offensively,mcneil has the stronger supporting cast....

another thing that makes me cautious about taking okie st is that they are relatively young and inexperienced on offense......

going on the road vs a top drawer big 12 program with an inexperienced squad isn`t a good thing....even though the ucla and colorado wins were impressive.....

i agree....where is shortbus?.....

Smith/McNeal is a very valid comparison. OSU isn't really young and inexperienced on offense. They start a rs frosh qb, and play a freshman wr, but the OLINE is on par with OU's as the best in the conference and the TE's are both VERY solid. FB Shawn Willis is the best blocking FB in the country bar none, and Vernand Morency is one of the best TB's in the country. QB is a HUGE question mark.

I get so tired of moron osu fans saying, "he does all that is asked of him"...yeah, that's because they don't ask him to do anything he isn't capable of...like successfully throwing the football down the field.

OSU hasn't played really a good team until aTm. UCLA is pretty decent, but OSU had a good game and didn't turn it over.

OSU will try and run the ball down Misery's throat with Morency/Willis. They'll throw some short out passes to the TE, and IF/WHEN they get into enemy territory, they'll throw it deep to the endzone. They will try and get the ball into Prentice Elliots hands 4/5 times at wr behind the line of scrimmage on a reverse or flat passes. They'll throw a couple of jump balls to Dejuan Woods, and that is it. You can take that to the bank and cash it.
Actually, they'll try the option/qb around the end...but it won't work-as usual. That will be their approach.

 

[WinOne]

Bus,

Doesn't OSU have a kid on the bench who came into OSU as a passer (pena or perez). I remember seeing him in a passing camp a couple years ago but I may be thinking about someone else. Is he not capable of getting any reps?

WinOne!!

 

[ppeter]

Bus, so are you saying you like Mizzou in this one?

 

[shortbus]

Al Pena is his name. He was put in with 1:47 left vs. Tulsa for the two minute drill and was 4-4 passsing, then the next time was 2-2 making him 6-6 and looked good doing it.

Many are questioning why we haven't seen him yet, or Robbie Ried, the highly touted Freshman qb from Tx who skipped his last semester of college to enroll early only to have shoulder surgery. He's good to go but will probably RS now.

If Woods continues to struggle, you'll see Pena, but to my surprise they didn't put him in vs aTm until the last series with less than a minute to go.

I think Oklahoma State wins this game if they get up early, like I said last week vs aTm. If they get down 14 or more, they are basically in need of a miracle.

OSU's game is to control the offensive line of scrimmage and the clock and wear down the opponent. I'll be honest with you, the defense is SUSPECT. I hate the 4-2-5. They rush 3 half the time and try to get a coverage sack but a good qb will find an open man or run and that has been what's happened. With Darrent Williams out at CB, Peterson out at DE, it's spooky, but Brad Girtman will be a huge addition at DL like I said.

I'll be playing OSU but over any total is probably a pretty safe bet.

 

[shortbus]

don't guage off me though, I'm an OSU homer bleed orange, look through orange colored glasses, etc.

I WILL HOWEVER, have a VERY good idea of who's going to win this game on Friday.

 

[WinOne]

Bus,

Thanks for the input. I thought Pena would have played a bit more. I remember him at a passing camp and he threw the ball well. Several of us were surprised that he went up there as he had a couple more options in more of a pro style offense.

I wish him the best next week, I hope he stays benched this week.

WinOne!!

 

[viking611]

Iowa hasn't won 20 games the last 2 years because of a fluke. They are a better team than Penn St and should win straight up. Penn St has had some tough losses but I see another one coming as well. Iowa should've beat Michigan this year. Arizona St loss was just one of those games. Go Hawks.

 

[BoomBoom92]

Shortbus, good points on Okla. St. However, I don't think it's Donovan Woods lack of ability to throw that's the problem. I think he's been progressing nicely. He threw for over 200 yards versus A&M. There's nothing wrong with that. The problem was Morency's uncharacteristic 2 fumbles and that ridiculous hail mary A&M completed at the end of the half plus the clueless defense we played Saturday.


I've never been a fan of Bill Clay's defense. I think the 4-2-5 is a gimmick scheme to compensate for a lack of athletes. The thing is Okla St now HAS the athletes to run something different. The bend but don't break philosphy is in trouble against a dual threat QB (McNeal) good receivers (Terrance Murphy) and a good RB (Courtnry Lewis).

The biggest problem I had though was Okla St's lack of urgency in the 2nd half. The two scoring drives took forever and we showed no hurry up offense of any kind. A&M continued to single cover our wideouts with no saftey help even after D'Juan Woods burned them several times with jump ball throws. If that coverage continues against us Woods needs to throw even more. It'll only open things up more on the inside with Morency.

I look for a more inspired effort out of Okla St this weekend...especially from the defense. If we win the turnover battle I like our chances.