is the line/juice going to change??

[AllAboutTheBenjamins]

lots of juice to play carolina tonight. is the line gonna move to 3.5 and juice back to -110??

 

[omahamoneymaker]

If you like Tampa wait a bit. It is already at 3.5 -110 at SBG. It will move that way at other books also but I think around kickoff it might come back down so if you want the 3.5 take it when you see it.

 

[buffettgambler]

Assuming Pinnacle as the efficient market (current price of -3/-121), fair value on the favorite at 3.5 is +102 right now. Is there a particular reason why you would prefer to wait to lay -110 on the 3.5 instead of laying the vig on the 3 (if you think the line is going to go up)?

 

[PittsburghPaul]

welcome back to the RX, Buffet

 

[AllAboutTheBenjamins]

i want to play the panthers. i would even take it at 3.5 with less juice. i will take it at 3 with the high juice if i have to, but would rather lay less.

i am a gambling beginner for the most part, so let me know if there is some flaws in my thinking (besides, obviously losing the option of a push if they win by only a FG)

 

[buffettgambler]

Thanks Paul.

AATB,
A common gambling fallacy is to assume vig and payout are interchangeable. The payout is -121 per 100 and the the vig on the -121/+113 is 1.67%

This fallacy leads to a more comment and detrimental fallacy, high "laying more vig (in reality it is payout)" is bad. Not true. Laying more vig is bad (implying betting at books with higher theoretical hold retention), but laying shorter odds is not inherently worse.
Cetris Peribus,-3/-121 is equal to -3.5/+102 as far is EV is concerned. However, in its truest sense, laying the -121 is more prudent as higher percentage bets reduces the variance of ones bankroll, and laying -121 vs. the -110 is more prudent.

You are not saving "juice" by laying -110, rather shortening the payout structure at the expense of increasing your -EV (or decreasing any percieved EV).

 

[AllAboutTheBenjamins]

i THINK i understand haha

thanks!!!