Is Phoenix -10 a crazy bet?

[HonestRob]

Phoenix -10 @ Oklahoma City

OKC is just horrible and 10 of their 13 losses are by double digits. What are your thoughts on taking Phoenix to cover?

 

[bellyputter]

Against New Orleans(1st game with Scott Brooks), their body language and small line-up showed a complete change of heart. We will see.

 

[sumday]

how is that a crazy bet? if suns dont win by at least 10 i will be surprised

 

[OTK]

how is that a crazy bet? if suns dont win by at least 10 i will be surprised

because it's laying 10 points on the road in the nba. percentage of plays like that winning cant be high.

with that said its hard to play okcity because they suck so damn much. i think they are the play here though.

 

[TheChief+]

perhaps OKC first half?

they often start off decently but falter down the stretch because they dont have the talent to go 4 quarters

 

[Soccermom]

Yea if this game is close in the 4th quarter, no way does a team like OKC pull through. I like PHO to cover on this but I myself will stay away from this. By the way, when people say 1 unit, does that mean $1? $100?

 

[yanni_gogolak]

84% of 2200 bets on PHO and no line movement, fishy.
http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketball-public-betting-chart

 

[Risk44]

The Suns' last four games have come against Detroit, Utah, LA (Lakers) and Portland. All four of those teams have winning records. Off those "big" games, it should be fairly easy for the Suns to overlook the lowly Thunder here. Note that Phoenix is 0-3 ATS its last three games against teams with a losing record and a money-burning 33-42-3 (44%) ATS against losing teams since the start of the 2006 season. Its also worth noting that the Suns were just 2-6-1 ATS during that stretch when listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Yes, the Suns did sweep the Sonics last season. However, a closer look shows that Seattle went 3-0-1 ATS in those games. The Suns won the games by an average of less than eight points per game and no games were decided by greater than 12 points. The Suns have played seven road games this season and only one of those resulted in a victory of more than 10 points.

 

[HonestRob]

By the way, when people say 1 unit, does that mean $1? $100?

I'm new here but I believe it just means a unit of betting. For example if 1 unit = $100 then 2 units = $200. I think the actual value of a unit differs from person to person depending on their bankroll. It's just a simpler way of communicating how much you are betting on a game. 1 unit is a good play. 5 units is a great play. That's what I think anyway. Am I right here?

 

[yanni_gogolak]

Am I right here?

yes
for me i unit=$0.50
hit a bit 5 unit the other night, jk

 

[HonestRob]

The Suns' last four games have come against Detroit, Utah, LA (Lakers) and Portland. All four of those teams have winning records. Off those "big" games, it should be fairly easy for the Suns to overlook the lowly Thunder here. Note that Phoenix is 0-3 ATS its last three games against teams with a losing record and a money-burning 33-42-3 (44%) ATS against losing teams since the start of the 2006 season. Its also worth noting that the Suns were just 2-6-1 ATS during that stretch when listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Yes, the Suns did sweep the Sonics last season. However, a closer look shows that Seattle went 3-0-1 ATS in those games. The Suns won the games by an average of less than eight points per game and no games were decided by greater than 12 points. The Suns have played seven road games this season and only one of those resulted in a victory of more than 10 points.

Yeah but you're just focusing on the Suns here and not on the Thunder. The Thunder have won 1 game. They've lost 13. Out of those 13 losses 10 of them were by 10 points or more. The Thunder aren't just a bad/average team. They're arguably the worst team in the league and they regularly get blown out.

These teams have beaten OKC by 10 or more:
New Orleans(2)
LA Clippers(only have 2 wins on the season)
Houston(2)
Philadelphia
NY Knicks
Orlando
Boston
Milwaukee

Both teams are coming off two days rest. I don't think Phoenix looks past them for this reason. If Phoenix had played a big game last night I could see that happening but not after having two days rest. Phoenix also won one of their road games by exactly 10 points so it's two road game victories of 10+.

I'm not quite as good at NBA as I am at NFL so please let me know what you think?

 

[yanni_gogolak]

Both teams are coming off two days rest. I don't think Phoenix looks past them for this reason. If Phoenix had played a big game last night I could see that happening but not after having two days rest. Phoenix also won one of their road games by exactly 10 points so it's two road game victories of 10+.

I'm not quite as good at NBA as I am at NFL so please let me know what you think?

i think you're right here. PHO has nobody to look past to. MIN is their next game, no slouch but not an important game for them. OKC is the worst scoring team in the league. they wont be able to keep any kind of pace with PHO.

 

[gabbana]

suns getting barbosa back tonight...i like them to win for sure but -10 is a risky line to lay especially on the road...

 

[Mr_Mark]

suns should win by at least 10 tonite

the only concern i have here is that the suns jump out to a too big of lead early on, rest the starters and let okc get back in the game.

well actually not that worried bout it.... its okc

go suns

gl fellas

 

[hcskip]

Well, Mr Mark, you got me concerned with that "better pull the starters" line, so I took the -6 in the 1st Half for my original bet last night on the full game....

We'll see what happens!

 

[HonestRob]

I put 1 unit on Phoenix -10.

 

[ProPokerPlayer]

Okla has a TV game with Lebron tomorrow night...............look ahead?

 

[OTK]

Okla has a TV game with Lebron tomorrow night...............look ahead?

Ok City isn't good enough to look past anybody, especially a top team like Phoenix.