Is Home Court Overvalued? Replies welcomed

[MickyD]

I have been working on a theory in the NBA and College about the over or under value of the home team in games with spreads between 6 to 8.5. (why this number - like I say a theory) Had a little time today so I went back in the NBA and college using Don Best closing lines and found some interesting numbers. Yes I understand this is only a small sample size. went back from yesterday to 2-7-04. Used all games that Don Best had lines for, NBA college regular and added games as well as bracket buster games. My initial thought was that too much value is given to home teams and the lines are off, especially in the games that have lines from 6 to 8.5. I also thought away teams favored by these numbers were a good value because of this overvaluing of the home team. Found out I was right in NBA, Partially WRONG in college. Here are the numbers:

NBA - Home team favored by 6 - 8.5 points
record: 11-15 ATS with underdog winning outright 9 times

NBA - Away teams favored by 6-8.5 points
record: 7-2 ATS with only 1 outright win by underdog

College - Home team fav by 6-8.5 points
record: 51-35 ATS underdog wins outright 18 times (I did not expect the home team to do this well)

College Away team favored by 6-8.5 points
record: 10-14 10 outright wins by underdog

Conclusion: NBA away teams favored by 6-8.5 are a good value bet. Home teams favored by same number are not. There actually seems to be some value on playing these road dogs on money line.
College home court is huge key. More so than in NBA and home dogs of 6-8.5 are a solid money line investment. They tend to win outright when they cover (10 of 14 times in this study)

These numbers are only about a 3 week sample and part of that included the All Star break. Also these numbers are based on closing lines and may include some steam or sharp moves that changed the line to the number I used in my study. But as the books tighten up the numbers I see a little edge in playing using these trends.

I would love to see others opinions and thoeries on this subject.

 

[MickyD]

1st test is Sacrament +6 tonight at LA

 

[Bobby_Trendy]

Like the industriousness. Sample seems way too small at this point, though.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Below is a transcript of part of my post in the Handicapping forum here on pg 8 titled Capping 101. Interesting.


The following is a copy of a letter sent to the LA TIMES some years back and it goes in to some depth on what Ben was talking about homefield advantage:

Home-Court 'Edge' Confounds Experts

On Feb 29, you ran a statistical blurb saying that "home court advantage in the playoffs...is a considerable edge" and showing the annual percentages of NBA playoff series won by the home team. In total since 1990-1991 74.8% of playoff series have been won by the team with the home field advantage.

This is not evidence of homecourt advantage. The team with home court advantage is often simply the better team, as indicated by their superior regular-season record. The fact that these teams win 74.8% of their series may be attributed to their superior talent rather than home court advantage.

This is a classic example of what we statisticians call a "confounding factor," and I plan to use this example in my elementary statistic classes at UCLA. A better way to examine the significance of playoff home-court advantage is to compare the percentages of games won by the home team, since both the stronger and weaker teams get to play games on their home court. A slight problem is that the better teams get to play more games on their home court, but this problem is rather negligable. In the last 10 final series for instance, the home team has won only 29 of the 56 games, or 51.8%. Apparently, homecourt advantage in the NBA finals is not significant.

The best kept secret in basketball is that there is no such thing as homecourt advantage in the playoffs. The reason teams have worse records on the road during the regular season may be due to the weariness caused by travel. During the playoffs. however, both teams travel equally.

RICK PAIK SCHOENBERG Professor of Statistics, UCLA

OccamsRazor contributor to the Cappers Doctoral Program

 

[MickyD]

Thank you Occams, interseting read. I always look for you plays. I notice you often like the same game as me (which is good for me

)
Really don't know if there is anything to this yet. I am gonna track it for a while and see.

 

[Hitman26]

Mickey D:



Give me your email address and I will send you a great article on this subject that will help you out. Huge sampling size included in the article.


Hitman

 

[Hitman26]

Lets see if I can paste it:



Is the NBA Home Court Advantage a Myth?
By Jack Hughes
Jan 20, 2004, 15:08

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It has been a long-time belief that the NBA has a bigger home court advantage than any other professional sport, as it is not uncommon to see a team win by double digits at home and lose by double digits on the road vs. the same opponent. In fact, since 1990, home teams are 9555-6070 S/U for an impressive winning percentage of 61.2% (through games of Monday, December 10, 2003). However, I have found that winning on the court has NOT translated to success ATS. You may be surprised to know that these same home teams that have won at a 61.2% clip S/U since 2000 are only 7462-7700-343, 49.2% ATS! It has become apparent that those that make the line have built in the home court advantage into the number, thus inflating the odds against the home team. Therefore, those gamblers that have blindly continued to bet on home teams have paid the price.

I was also surprised to learn that the difference between home favorites and home underdogs is relatively insignificant. Home Favorites have gone 5279-5422-256, 49.3% ATS since 2000, while Home Underdogs are 2023-2103-87, 49.0% ATS. I ran this same study for non-conference games, conference games, and division games, and in none of the categories have either the home favorites or the home underdogs gone above 50%! The only subsection to even hit 50% are non-conference home favorites, which are 1679-1679-71 ATS.

Given this information, one would surmise that playing on ROAD teams should lead to steady profits. While this is not true over the whole population, since the 50.8% ATS win rate for road teams is still a losing proposition, I have found some spread ranges where the sharp player could have made a killing in recent seasons.

The most significant statistic I found is for Divisional Road Underdogs of +3 = or less. Since the 2000-2001 season, these clubs are a lucrative 138-77, 64.2% ATS! Broken down a bit further, road division dogs of +1 or +1.5 are an amazing 45-22-1, 67.2% ATS over this same span. The moral of this story is that if a home team does not merit being favored by more than 1 = points, it is almost always inferior to the road team talent-wise, and that the road teams have an easier time overcoming the home court advantage in this circumstance.

Believe it or not, this gets even better! I was SHOCKED to discover that these same road divisional dogs of +3 = or less went an astounding 125-93, 57.3% STRAIGHT UP! While it is not entirely surprising that dogs of +1 or +1 = went 43-25, 63.2% S/U, it was interesting that dogs between +2 and +3 = also held their ground on the court, going 82-68, 54.7% S/U. This sets up some outstanding Money Line potential! In summation, I recommend the following approach to maximizing profits:
1 _ Look for any DIVISIONAL game where the HOME TEAM is FAVORED by 3 = points or less;

2 _ If the line is _1 or _1 =, place the entire wager on the UNDERDOG on the MONEY LINE;

3 _ If the line is between _2 and _3 =, place HALF the wager on the underdog against the spread and half the wager on the underdog on the Money Line.



Hope this helps Edited out the hyperlinks and advertising.



Hitman





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[MickyD]

Hitman great info. Thank you much. I have updated the numbers in the 6-8.5 range thru Monday 2-29

NBA Home fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 14-19 underdog wins 12 outright
NBA road fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 8-3 underdog wins 3 outright

CBB Home Fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 65-44 underdog wins 23 outright
CBB road fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 14-17 underdog wins 10 outright