Is hitting a favorite THAT HARD?

[dynamite140]

Damn it. I am so damn pissed off right now. Already down $5200 the last 6 weeks and just trying win my money back playing $50 a game now. Of course i cant hit CRAP. I don't know about you guys but the favorites are keep losing. I am 3-15 in my last 18 favorites. Last night Milwaukee loses -155 at home and today Cubs -230 at home.

Of course i was going to take Phillies but the Cubs game was not over yet so I see no pt in chasing if i hit my Cubs ML play.

Damn, i really dont know it anymore. This baseball thing is the hardest sport ever. Chasing, value, i cant hit shit. Now i am down another 300 dollars and this is like 5500 dollars now and only making 50-100 dollar plays and FAVORITES LOSE AT HOME -155 AND -230.

I LIKE 2 GAMES FOR TONIGHT TO CHASE IT BACK. RAYS WITH KAZMIR AND DODGERS EVEN THOUGH THAT LINE IS BS B/C THEY SHOULD NEVER BE -200 TO NO ONE.

Who do you guys like for tonight?

 

[dynamite140]

obviously i just want Rays to win the game tonight so i dont have to bet on the Dodgers game.

MAN THESE FAVORITES ARE PISSING ME OFF. HOW CAN THEY LOSE SO MUCH.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

If your going to play favorites then try some RL's.

I like the Tigers and Twins tonight, but you shouldn't take my advice.

 

[boombaby]

Mil. at home,not as high fav.

 

[candylicker]

Imo your risking to much, no value there, take a shot with minn, or maybe sd

 

[prodigy]

the fact that youre in chase mode explains why you are making irrational decisions against your own better judgement. you cant justify the dodgers as a 2/1 favorite ... but yet you are going to play them tonight? you need to step away from the computer for a few days, relax, clear your mind, and come back at it fresh. right now, it seems like you are 'betting the clock' and not the teams you actually like. meaning you are just trying to chase 1pms with 4pms and then 4pms with 10pms.

 

[dynamite140]

I have heard of guys going 0-10 and 3-15 but thats usually betting games with spreads like nba or nfl. But to go 3 wins and 15 losses in last 18 favorites, i think at least 4 of them were -200 makes me sick now.

 

[dynamite140]

prodigy, i took a 2 week break already. I started betting again 3 days ago and its still crap. Whenever i pick a damn team +200, that team loses 9-2 yet when i play the favorite, its either a TOUGH win or a tough loss.

 

[OILCAN]

Rays !!!!!

 

[homedawg]

you should never ever ever bet -200 favorites in baseball. you will end up pretty much where you are now. i rarely even play anything above -140. you will find much more value in dogs. if your going to be better -150 and above just save your money cause your going to end up in trouble....or ill take your action??

 

[prodigy]

prodigy, i took a 2 week break already. I started betting again 3 days ago and its still crap. Whenever i pick a damn team +200, that team loses 9-2 yet when i play the favorite, its either a TOUGH win or a tough loss.

the best advice i can give you is a piece i received many years ago and it really helps during the tough frustrating stretches of baseball season.

very simply, do not play any games when the line is more than a -150 lay.
that means steer clear of the game completely. no +185 dogs. no -210 favorites.

if you try to weather the storm playing games in the general 'pick'em' range or -130/+130 range, it does wonders for your psyche for a few reasons.

first of all, when you are cold, the last thing you want to do is lay MORE money to win a unit. during cold stretches, its hard enough to pick the straight up winner. theres no need to compound it with crazy juice.

now on the flip side, chasing with big dogs hoping for a quick score isnt the way to go either because big dogs often will fail to show profit short term. their benefit is long term. when things are going well, its easy to laugh it off when your +180 dog gets blasted 9-2. but during a cold stretch, it just leads to second guessing and regret.

for now, id say playing games that involve pick'ems and favs/dogs of up to 150 tops. maybe even 130 if you really want to be conservative while getting your confidence back.

 

[homedawg]

great advice right there by prodigy

 

[LLXC13]

prodigy, I also stick with the -150 tops...though sometimes I will go up to -159.

 

[slapshot]

its all about the schedule this round of games are almost even just Angels / Rays have advantage and they are both on the road

last set you had Det/KC Bos/Sea Cle/LAA that went 8/1

dogs this weekend is not a surprise

 

[MrRogers]

Over 25 Faves Hit Between Monday And Wednesday....days Like This ...only A Matter Of Time

 

[dynamite140]

Favorites hit when i am on a break or i stay away.

 

[homedawg]

let's get it straight the team don't think dynamite140 is on us tonight lets blow. has more to do with the selections than anything else

 

[terpkeg]

agreed, baseball = stay away from -150.

also, if you are going to be gambing all baseball season long, i take it that you will either 1. eventually crush youself enough that you stop gambling. 2. or, get yourself together.
you should probably decide a specific amount of $$$ that are expendable to you right now. open several os accounts. and start with a sold mm system where 1u is 1% of your roll and that is your base play. when you look at it like a long term hobby/investment and not a get rich plan, you will be more selcetive in your plays and find it more enjoyable/less stressful.
then, within a couple weeks you will be just as excited to win a game you hav 10.00 on as you were to win 100.00. seeing your bankroll increase will be your goal. the itch to go large and chase will always come back, but it will be easier to control.

just my 2 cents. but i seriously wouldnt play la tonight. they very well may win, but if you dont think there is value in that line, then it shouldnt be a play.

 

[dynamite140]

I honestly dont think LA should be -200 against any MLB team.

 

[terpkeg]

i just went through some of my mlb #'s.

i went 1-15-1 from 7/2 - 7/18. playing primarily dogs and unders.

been 13-6 since, but playing mostly dogs, so have made a nice chunk back.
but without any money management, a 1 for 17 run could end your whole season.
i actually wasnt even aware it was that bad as i have been playing alot of mma, wnba, tennis in that span as well.