[h=1]Is Drew Brees regressing?[/h][h=3]The Saints QB's problems have more to do with the help[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Sando[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton would have us believe quarterback Drew Brees is the least of his team's problems through a 2-4 start to the season. Brees himself has shrugged off questions about whether his arm strength is diminishing significantly at age 35.
Watching Brees put together one of the worst statistical fourth quarters of his career in a Week 8 defeat at Detroit had to be jarring for Saints fans accustomed to consistent excellence. That performance just further added to the chatter among some fans that perhaps an aging Brees (he'll be 36 in January) is really on the decline. So -- is he?
There are some factors preventing Brees from putting together the type of MVP-caliber season some anticipated. But after running through the numbers and speaking with general managers who have watched the Saints<offer></offer>, the idea of Brees as an older quarterback in decline appears premature.
The Lions are playing dominant defense this season. They rank 12th out of 320 teams since 2005 in points allowed per game (eighth in defensive expected points added). The Lions did more than simply limit Eli Manning and MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers earlier this season. They shut down both quarterbacks.
The chart shows how starting quarterbacks have fared this season against the Lions and against the other teams on their schedules. Brees was the only one of the seven to finish with a higher Total QBR score (73.0) against the Lions than against his other opponents (64.2). Rodgers and Manning were dramatically worse against Detroit. The six quarterbacks other than Brees combined for a 22.3 QBR score against the Lions, compared with 64.4 against other teams. How bad is 22.3? E.J. Manuel is the only qualifying quarterback with a score below 22.3 this season.
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"Brees is getting older, but he has not lost it," one of the GMs said. "If the Saints released him, every team without a great QB would be lining up to pay him. They have not been a very good road team, and they have already played four road games this season."
GMs pointed to other reasons the offense, although third in EPA per game and touchdowns per drive, has not been good enough to pull out close games consistently.
Tight end Jimmy Graham has not been healthy. Receiver Marques Colston appears slower. The Saints' guards have not played as well, allowing additional pressure up the middle, where a shorter quarterback such as Brees is particularly vulnerable. Pro Football Focus grading corroborates those perceptions. Graham, both guards and especially Colston are rated lower this season. So is Brees. "A big one is Darren Sproles being gone and the new chemistry with Brandin Cooks is probably not there yet," one GM said. "Brees will adjust. They will be competing for the division at the end of the year."
Brees' production in the deeper passing game has fallen off. However, he put up good numbers against Detroit on passes traveling more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage (7-of-11, 167 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Overall, Brees ranks 10th in QBR this season at 66.1. That figure lines up closely with where he was in even-numbered seasons since 2006. Brees was better than that in most of the intervening seasons.
The only time the Saints suffered a losing record during the Brees era was in 2012, when Payton was suspended and the defense was historically bad. The team's current defense is actually worse than the 2012 version in EPA per game, which tallies how each play affects scoring expectations based on many thousands of plays run in similar situations previously.
The great (bad?) thing about the NFC South this season: The Saints are 2-4 and only one game out of first place.
They have issues, but the evidence suggests Brees is part of the solution -- not part of the problem.
[h=3]Notes[/h]
• Denver's dilemma: The Broncos have a good problem to solve as they figure out how to keep Julius Thomas andDemaryius Thomas beyond this season. Re-signing both to long-term deals would be the best-case scenario, but that will be easier said than done. I asked a personnel director which one he'd take if forced to choose. He didn't see a clear choice and said that he'd probably go with Demaryius but that, if I asked him the same question next week, the answer could change. Using the franchise tag for one of them could make sense. The tag for tight ends is more affordable. Teams have tagged six tight ends and five wide receivers over the past five offseasons.
• Peyton takes MVP lead: Philip Rivers was my MVP favorite a couple of weeks ago, but now that his San Diego Chargers have lost two in a row, the race appears wide open. Peyton Manning would be my first choice right now, followed by DeMarco Murray, Rodgers, Rivers and Andrew Luck.
Manning has six TD passes with no interceptions in victories over Luck's 5-2 Indianapolis Colts and Rivers' 5-3 Chargers.
What about Murray? The best quarterbacks are always more valuable than the best running backs. It's the nature of their positions. Murray deserves special consideration, however. Although he has help from an outstanding Dallas Cowboys offensive line, his consistent production is a leading reason the team has adopted and stuck with its run-oriented approach. Without that change, quarterback Tony Romo would be forced to carry the team, same as in the past. The Cowboys would look a lot more like their recent 8-8 teams than the 6-1 NFC East leaders they have become.
• Piling on Cutler: The piling on continues in Chicago as quarterback Jay Cutler navigates a difficult stretch. Brian Urlacher's critique -- that Cutler is "elite" only in terms of how much money the quarterback earns -- jibes with responses from the 26 coaches and personnel evaluators I polled in the offseason. None of the 26 placed Cutler in the first tier. Ten put him in the second tier. Sixteen put him in the third tier. None put him in the fourth or fifth tiers. Cutler came in 17th out of the 32 quarterbacks projected to start in Week 1. He currently ranks 13th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR. He was 10th through Week 6 and has had only one truly bad game this season.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Sando[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton would have us believe quarterback Drew Brees is the least of his team's problems through a 2-4 start to the season. Brees himself has shrugged off questions about whether his arm strength is diminishing significantly at age 35.
Watching Brees put together one of the worst statistical fourth quarters of his career in a Week 8 defeat at Detroit had to be jarring for Saints fans accustomed to consistent excellence. That performance just further added to the chatter among some fans that perhaps an aging Brees (he'll be 36 in January) is really on the decline. So -- is he?
There are some factors preventing Brees from putting together the type of MVP-caliber season some anticipated. But after running through the numbers and speaking with general managers who have watched the Saints<offer></offer>, the idea of Brees as an older quarterback in decline appears premature.
The Lions are playing dominant defense this season. They rank 12th out of 320 teams since 2005 in points allowed per game (eighth in defensive expected points added). The Lions did more than simply limit Eli Manning and MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers earlier this season. They shut down both quarterbacks.
The chart shows how starting quarterbacks have fared this season against the Lions and against the other teams on their schedules. Brees was the only one of the seven to finish with a higher Total QBR score (73.0) against the Lions than against his other opponents (64.2). Rodgers and Manning were dramatically worse against Detroit. The six quarterbacks other than Brees combined for a 22.3 QBR score against the Lions, compared with 64.4 against other teams. How bad is 22.3? E.J. Manuel is the only qualifying quarterback with a score below 22.3 this season.
| QB | QBR vs. Lions | QBR vs. Others | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 73.0 | 64.2 | +8.8 |
| Cam Newton | 55.2 | 63.0 | -7.8 |
| Kyle Orton | 30.3 | 46.8 | -16.5 |
| Geno Smith | 12.3 | 36.8 | -24.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 47.7 | 87.4 | -39.7 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2.5 | 48.1 | -45.6 |
| Eli Manning | 27.8 | 83.3 | -55.5 |
| Totals | 31.8 | 64.6 | -32.8 |
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"Brees is getting older, but he has not lost it," one of the GMs said. "If the Saints released him, every team without a great QB would be lining up to pay him. They have not been a very good road team, and they have already played four road games this season."
GMs pointed to other reasons the offense, although third in EPA per game and touchdowns per drive, has not been good enough to pull out close games consistently.
Tight end Jimmy Graham has not been healthy. Receiver Marques Colston appears slower. The Saints' guards have not played as well, allowing additional pressure up the middle, where a shorter quarterback such as Brees is particularly vulnerable. Pro Football Focus grading corroborates those perceptions. Graham, both guards and especially Colston are rated lower this season. So is Brees. "A big one is Darren Sproles being gone and the new chemistry with Brandin Cooks is probably not there yet," one GM said. "Brees will adjust. They will be competing for the division at the end of the year."
Brees' production in the deeper passing game has fallen off. However, he put up good numbers against Detroit on passes traveling more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage (7-of-11, 167 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Overall, Brees ranks 10th in QBR this season at 66.1. That figure lines up closely with where he was in even-numbered seasons since 2006. Brees was better than that in most of the intervening seasons.
The only time the Saints suffered a losing record during the Brees era was in 2012, when Payton was suspended and the defense was historically bad. The team's current defense is actually worse than the 2012 version in EPA per game, which tallies how each play affects scoring expectations based on many thousands of plays run in similar situations previously.
The great (bad?) thing about the NFC South this season: The Saints are 2-4 and only one game out of first place.
They have issues, but the evidence suggests Brees is part of the solution -- not part of the problem.
[h=3]Notes[/h]
• Denver's dilemma: The Broncos have a good problem to solve as they figure out how to keep Julius Thomas andDemaryius Thomas beyond this season. Re-signing both to long-term deals would be the best-case scenario, but that will be easier said than done. I asked a personnel director which one he'd take if forced to choose. He didn't see a clear choice and said that he'd probably go with Demaryius but that, if I asked him the same question next week, the answer could change. Using the franchise tag for one of them could make sense. The tag for tight ends is more affordable. Teams have tagged six tight ends and five wide receivers over the past five offseasons.
• Peyton takes MVP lead: Philip Rivers was my MVP favorite a couple of weeks ago, but now that his San Diego Chargers have lost two in a row, the race appears wide open. Peyton Manning would be my first choice right now, followed by DeMarco Murray, Rodgers, Rivers and Andrew Luck.
Manning has six TD passes with no interceptions in victories over Luck's 5-2 Indianapolis Colts and Rivers' 5-3 Chargers.
What about Murray? The best quarterbacks are always more valuable than the best running backs. It's the nature of their positions. Murray deserves special consideration, however. Although he has help from an outstanding Dallas Cowboys offensive line, his consistent production is a leading reason the team has adopted and stuck with its run-oriented approach. Without that change, quarterback Tony Romo would be forced to carry the team, same as in the past. The Cowboys would look a lot more like their recent 8-8 teams than the 6-1 NFC East leaders they have become.
• Piling on Cutler: The piling on continues in Chicago as quarterback Jay Cutler navigates a difficult stretch. Brian Urlacher's critique -- that Cutler is "elite" only in terms of how much money the quarterback earns -- jibes with responses from the 26 coaches and personnel evaluators I polled in the offseason. None of the 26 placed Cutler in the first tier. Ten put him in the second tier. Sixteen put him in the third tier. None put him in the fourth or fifth tiers. Cutler came in 17th out of the 32 quarterbacks projected to start in Week 1. He currently ranks 13th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR. He was 10th through Week 6 and has had only one truly bad game this season.
