Is beating the closing line overrated?

[NowshesmyRuca]

I would say yes.

 

[namathfan]

Absolutely not...

ask yourself if you'd rather have a better price than the closing one or the same price as the closing one...not much question I would think.

 

[patswin]

nope

 

[HacheMan]

I've found the answer to be yes, absolutely, in basketball, which is what I mainly personally wager on.

For example, the last 2 years in the NBA, the first few weeks of the regular season, I beat lines moves up to 1-3 points consistently, yet was still losing my azz as the games were going the opposite and resulted in having to dig myself out of huge holes to climb back to positive.

I couldn't say on other sports.

 

[HacheMan]

ask yourself if you'd rather have a better price than the closing one or the same price as the closing one...not much question I would think.

A better price to someone could also be just the opposite of what others like.

If you like -4 and grab it early, I may like +4 but wait to see if it goes up and like +5.5 EVEN BETTER, while you think you got a great deal.

It all depends on which side you like....:toast:

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

A better price to someone could also be just the opposite of what others like.

If you like -4 and grab it early, I may like +4 but wait to see if it goes up and like +5.5 EVEN BETTER, while you think you got a great deal.

It all depends on which side you like....:toast:

(<)< There it is. Predicting the line movement is much more valuable than beating it.

 

[jwunderdog]

It gives you a bet that is better then 50/50 but does it make up for the juice by itself? no.

 

[Sammy439]

It gives you a bet that is better then 50/50 but does it make up for the juice by itself? no.

In some cases you are right, it doesn't. But in some cases it does. It depends on how much you beat the closing line by.

 

[TomGshotput]

Depends how highly peope rate it

If people rate it as a sure ticket to profit, than it is highly overrated

If people think predicting line movement is nothing and predicting the game is everything, than it is highly underrated

 

[randyrohm]

Getting a better number can't be overrated.

 

[kidman232]

on games with spreads, i think its a big deal, on moneyline sports line baseball, not that big of a deal

 

[ChiTownHustler]

no.

as time and plays increase, it is the difference between winning and losing.

 

[-Slim-]

This question has so many ways to answer it, Im not even sure where to start.

In the end, I think the best way I can put it is, these numbers feed us (bookies) day in and day out. If you can beat those numbers, you are beating what feeds us.

Of course, u can follow line moves and end up losing your ass, its not like its automatic.

 

[TomGshotput]

Getting a better number can't be overrated.

If that is the only thing people base their selections on, they absolutely are overrating it. . .

 

[Seymour]

It means very little tonight - very little tommorrow - but over an extended period of time it is really important - from a gamblers perspective you need every little edge you can get to keep your head above water

 

[IrishTim]

It means very little tonight - very little tommorrow - but over an extended period of time it is really important - from a gamblers perspective you need every little edge you can get to keep your head above water

Exactly. In baseball, for every 2 cents you can beat the closing line by, you can expect a 1% return on investment. The best the sharps beat the closing by around 8 cents on average, so they can statistically expect a 4% ROI long-term.

 

[onemwtheone]

Exactly. In baseball, for every 2 cents you can beat the closing line by, you can expect a 1% return on investment. The best the sharps beat the closing by around 8 cents on average, so they can statistically expect a 4% ROI long-term.

Minor quibble - you still have to take into account the juice. You'll get a 1% return above what you'd otherwise get if you went with the closing line, but you'd still lose money when the vig is taken. (I also think in terms of 50% ROR as breaking even, so you'd need a 4c advantage for 1%).

But you're exactly right - you have to consistently beat the closing line to have long term success.

 

[totalsquare]

if i can get at least 1 point better than the closing line 80% of the time, i'd quit working...

 

[BadCo]

Yeah books will shut you down if you are beating them to the apex consistently.

There is a reason for that.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Yeah books will shut you down if you are beating them to the apex consistently.

There is a reason for that.

Not exactly..

It would probably take a small-time local or offshore to cut your limits if all you are doing is betting something at it's apex. I know of one person in particular who does just this and has around 10-20 outs at any given time. No problems whatsoever.

As for the original post, who clearly is lacking some logic - of course beating the closing line isn't overrated. Anytime you can get a better number than the closer, you create a statistically better situation for yourself. Obviously, this varies by sport and is extremely important in MLB and NHL totals. I can't tell you how many times I have won or pushed a total bet because I got a better number than what it closed at. Like if I wanted to bet U 9.0 in a MLB game, and got that number, then it closed at 8.5. I have a pretty big advantage over the bettor who got the 8.5 Now, if the total lands right on 9.0, I will push and essentially have a 1 run advantage over the closing number (since 8.5 only eliminates the push on 8.0).

When you calculate that you maybe have a 1 run advantage from the opening number and the number drops and closes a half run lower and I bet that closing number, I have effectively eliminated my 1 run advantage and now it is only 0.5, so mathematically it will of course worse in the long run than the 1+ run advantage.