No it does seem much tougher this year. I think it's because a lot of aces like Verlander, Halladay, etc haven't been an automatic win like before. Phillies is a team people liked betting on and they are so injured. The relief pitching has been so erratic and unpredictable.
Also, teams like K.C, Orioles etc have improved and it took awhile to adjust to that.
Also, teams like K.C, Orioles etc have improved and it took awhile to adjust to that.
Well, PHI under93.5 was already a popular under bet and even before the season started, their offense was depleted by missing Howard+Utley. Spring Training gave a pretty good outlook on what to expect offensively and while they're missing Halladay now, it wasn't that far fetched to expect at least one DL stint by one of their top3 SP (I would have guessed Lee or Hamels though).
Relief pitching can be easily eliminated by betting 1st 5 innings instead of full game, but I don't think it's that much worse than it was last year or the year before. You always had shaky bullpens and stellar bullpens on other teams, it's just in my opinion the one part on every team, that usually changes most on a year to year basis.
Since you bring up KC: Like PHI under was a popular season bet, KC over was, too. Pretty much anybody expected them to be largely improved and they got hurt far worse by injuries than PHI imo since they lost #2 SP Duffy and closer Soria for the year, #4 SP Sanchez for several weeks and also by #1 Hochevar so far not living up to the expectations. They also started 0-10 at home, so I don't really see how they could be seen as a huge surprise with their current record...
No, I guess I meant that people liked betting on the Yanks Phillies, Tigers when Verlander pitches etc. and against K.C and other crappy teams that were automatic losses. Now it's not that way. Bad teams have gotten better and the very good teams are weaker. You can see it coming but it still doesn't change the fact that there seems to be more parody this season. That's my point I guess.
It's not getting harder for me. I could never win at baseball, so I stopped trying.
although I'll start playing games in September, and I've done alright in the fall. Or should I say some falls?
although I'll start playing games in September, and I've done alright in the fall. Or should I say some falls?
the thing that surprised me about kc, was that they were so highly rated pre-season. Couldnt see why, although they have a good young nucleus of talent, the pitching was weaker than recent years right out of the gate. There is rarely any value in a large favorite, therefore no reason to wager on them.
Have to disagree with you here: Their starting rotation last year was Hochevar, Duffy, Chen, Paulino and a mix of Davis and O'Sullivan. The first four were still there this year and at least Hochevar/Duffy were supposed to improve at their age and Paulino had good stuff, so there wasn't much reason to think his numbers would get worse instead of better....Leaves the #5 spot and I would take Sanchez over O'Sullivan or Davies any day. They also added Broxton to an already strong bullpen, that already featured a strong backend in Soria and one of the best setup men in baseball, Holland. So on paper it appeared to most (incl. me) like they got better.
It's just that their starters so far (excl. Paulino, whose only problem so far was a lack of pitching deeper into ballgames) have been way below expectations. Even if the guys after Paulino would just give them 6IP 3ER regularly (though that's a QS, it's still a rather pedestrian ERA of just 4.50), they might already be above .500 by now and challenging CLE for the division lead....
