Is Anyone Here (or on Earth) Taking the Pats? [Discussion Thread]

[chonce]

I like the rest of the gambling world online, thought the 9.5 line was absurd when it was released. The last few meetings between these teams have been 1, 2 and 3 point games respectively. You have to go back to 2012 to see a time when the Patriots blew out the Jets. I don't know the best way to measure consensus but on every site that does the Jets are getting 65-70 percent of the tickets. The Sports Book Review has them getting 68 percent of the tickets and the money. Every poster here seems to love the Jets, myself included until I realized the whole planet is on them.

Food for thought: the Pats are 14-5-1 ATS in the last 15 at home. They are averaging 36 PPG and, according to 538 ELO rankings the Pats are the 4th best team through 6 weeks in NFL history, behind only: 1) 85 Bears; 2) 42' Bears; 3) 2007 Pats. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...lmost-on-pace-to-be-the-greatest-of-all-time/

The line is down to 7.5 at one book. Is anyone on NE? Bueller?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

If you like fading the public, please do so.......I don't think you will be happy with the result.

One if my locals was so pissed about the Michigan St game last week, he said everyone took Mich St, several guys on the ML, lol......he got buried on that game.

Just because you see everyone on game, doesn't mean it will lose, especially when its not a primetime game.

 

[bradyisgod]

If history is any indicator of the future, I'd say this game stays close. I'm ignoring the public. I'm just objectively looking at the history/trends, the line and making my best guess from what I know about the teams. There's a few factors going on with what you see in this line:

1) A ton of people love the Jets. I have noticed this since I've been on this board. Geno Smith could go onto the field with 1 arm and you'll have everyone on here in the in-game thread (including RUSS) screaming for them every time they score telling me what a dumbass I am for squaring the pats again. I really don't get it, but the public fucking loves them.

2) People hate the Patriots. I've won a lot of money over the past 5 years fading the public and just betting the Pats when they start to slump. Everyone looks for every reason to bet against them and they are usually wrong.

So IMO those are your main factors for why everyone is pounding the Jets, ESP. with the points. With that said, I still think it's a good bet. I have to stop myself from being biased when I bet Pats, mainly because I like them (and they win a lot).

I think Computer User has a good point. If anyone is beating the Patriots at home this year it's the Jets or Packers. I don't think the Jets will win, but I think they will hang close and an upset would NOT surprise me. I think it's absurd to put this line up at -8.5 (didn't it go to 10?!!!) given the history of the franchises and my main factor:

The Jets hung close with freakin Geno smith and co. Seriously, hung with a super bowl team, best team in the league, with what I feel is a WAY worse team than the Jets of today. The Jets this year are actually pretty good, their D is stellar and that alone is worth betting on. These are just my thoughts, but if the Jets can keep it close with Geno Smith, they can stay just as close if not closer and possibly pull an upset on the Pats (although I don't think this happens). BOL!!

 

[chonce]

TCG I am not simply interested in fading the public. I haven't even made a bet. I am just trying to encourage discussion on the cause of this consensus. The Pats TT has gone OVER in 8 straight games and they are usually a public team. It is highly unusual to see 70 percent going against ANY public team, let alone the Patriots.

 

[bradyisgod]

Also, I do not expect this line to shoot up at game time. If anything I expect the opposite. I think 8.5 was as good as I'm going to see. Doesn't surprise me if this stays at 7.5 or moves to a touch down. The big value was at 8+ but there's a strong argument to be made for taking it at a touchdown as well.

Do not take what I'm saying for fact, but if I were you wanting to go Pats, I'd wait a little longer and see if you can get it a touchdown or less. I think there's a good chance it goes down but I can't predict the future, only take my best guess at it. Cheers.

 

[chonce]

2) People hate the Patriots. I've won a lot of money over the past 5 years fading the public and just betting the Pats when they start to slump. Everyone looks for every reason to bet against them and they are usually wrong.

Gambling pubic loves the Pats-- they are almost always taxed due to massive public money.

 

[bradyisgod]

Gambling pubic loves the Pats-- they are almost always taxed due to massive public money.

Lemme rephrase that, I wrote that up quick. Not in this match up. They love the Jets and it shows with the spread. The gambling public absolutely loves the Jets.

I don't really think the Patriots gambling tax applies or has anything to do with this match-up.

 

[degen]

I am on the Patriots @ 7.5. The world was betting on the Patriots last week and those same people are betting against them this week. Kind of funny.

 

[chonce]

If you like fading the public, please do so.......I don't think you will be happy with the result.

One if my locals was so pissed about the Michigan St game last week, he said everyone took Mich St, several guys on the ML, lol......he got buried on that game.

Just because you see everyone on game, doesn't mean it will lose, especially when its not a primetime game.

I am not against riding public teams -- I took SEA last night . The one-sided betting is not what makes this noteworthy. There are one-sided games every week, but rarely to public teams like this. I would be just as curius if the 70 percent of the money was against the Packers, for instance.

 

[bradyisgod]

I'm not sure how accurate this site is, but I use it and it's helpful. It says 57% of the action is on the Pats.

http://www.wunderdog.com/public-consensus.html

 

[bradyisgod]

Unless you're talking about the total. 64% on the Jets. Maybe I missed that in your first post.

 

[bradyisgod]

You're right about SportsBookReview. They have pats getting 72% of the money. That's strange that the two sides differ that much. They only have a little over 2k bets logged.

The site I listed has over 10k bets from the public logged so SBR doesn't look like it is as up to date with wagers. Maybe I'm missing something here or I'm just spent from working all day.

 

[TomandJerry]

SBR doesn't give the right % consensus or $.

 

[Dexter03]

i am taking pats -7. b1.

 

[chonce]

SBR doesn't give the right % consensus or $.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/consensus/
As I said I don't know which, if any, sites have reliable consensus numbers but often you can see broad trends when comparing. It seems public and sharps are on NYJ. The book might've hung a bad line (often the case when sharps and public are on the same side) but I do suspect the book will do better with a NE win than a NYJ win (although teaser liability is also an issue)

 

[bradyisgod]

Yeah all the sites have different numbers so it's hard to tell which one is the most accurate. I'm still going to go with sports insights public consensus because they have the most wagers placed (5x that of SBR). Either way you roll, if you google "public consensus NFL", you get varied results from the top 3-5 sites with the Jets only being favored by an average of something like 10%. It's really not surprising because even your average Joe knows these teams play close and everyone likes an underdog when the line hits as high as 10.

Both plays for both sides make sense. BOL guys!

 

[Kaveman]

Not sold on the Jets; they've fattened up on lower tier teams. This is ripe for a blowout, but being a divisional rivalry, I wouldn't lay more than 6.5.

 

[justanobserver]

What about the total, i feel like if NYJ can win the will have to score over 24, right now i can get 47.5, feel like an over is inevitable.

 

[chonce]

What about the total, i feel like if NYJ can win the will have to score over 24, right now i can get 47.5, feel like an over is inevitable.

I feel like the game will go OVER if Pats cover, and UNDER if the Jets do.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Jets will win SU