THIS WAS A GOOD READ ON TONIGHTS GAME
SPORTS ADVISORS
(22) Cincinnati (7-2, 4-4 ATS) at Louisville (5-4, 4-4 ATS)
The red-hot Bearcats have jumped into the Top-25 for the first time this season thanks to back-to-back wins over ranked teams and now travel to Louisville for a Big East matchup with the Cardinals.
Since falling in Connecticut on Oct. 25, Cincinnati has beaten then-No. 24 South Florida 24-10 as a 1½-point ‘dog and then last week went to 20th-ranked West Virginia and got a 26-23 overtime win as a seven-point underdog. Bearcats QB Tony Pike, still recovering from surgery on his non-throwing arm, threw a 2-yard TD pass in OT to Kazeem Alli to beat West Virginia, and he’s thrown 10 TDs this season against just three INTs.
Cincinnati has won six of its last seven games (4-3 ATS) to pull into a three-way tie for first in the Big East with the Mountaineers and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in the eight-team division.
Louisville has dropped two straight, both on the road, including last week’s 41-7 disaster in Pittsburgh as a six-point underdog. The Cardinals lead the Big East with 21 turnovers and coughed it up five times against the Panthers last week, including a fumble and interception that were returned for scores.
Cardinals’ QB Hunter Cantwell was replaced twice last week by redshirt freshman Matt Simms, but Cantwell is slated to start tonight even though he’s completing just 57.9 percent of his throws and has 13 TDs and 11 INTs.
Louisville has won the last five matchups (4-1 ATS) with nearby Cincinnati and nine of the last 10 (8-2 ATS). Last season, the Cardinals went to Cincinnati and got a 28-24 win as eight-point underdogs, handing the Bearcats their first loss of the 2007 season. The last time these two met in Louisville, the Cardinals prevailed 23-17 but came nowhere near covering as 25-point favorites.
Cincinnati is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 19-9-2 overall, 5-2-1 in Big East games, 25-10-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 12-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0-1 in November contests. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Friday affairs, but otherwise the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-9 at home and 5-2 following a non-cover.
The over is 9-3-1 in the Bearcats last 13 road games, but the under has been the play in seven of their last 10 after a straight-up win and five of their last seven after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Louisville has stayed under the total in four straight Big East contests.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(22) Cincinnati (7-2, 4-4 ATS) at Louisville (5-4, 4-4 ATS)
The red-hot Bearcats have jumped into the Top-25 for the first time this season thanks to back-to-back wins over ranked teams and now travel to Louisville for a Big East matchup with the Cardinals.
Since falling in Connecticut on Oct. 25, Cincinnati has beaten then-No. 24 South Florida 24-10 as a 1½-point ‘dog and then last week went to 20th-ranked West Virginia and got a 26-23 overtime win as a seven-point underdog. Bearcats QB Tony Pike, still recovering from surgery on his non-throwing arm, threw a 2-yard TD pass in OT to Kazeem Alli to beat West Virginia, and he’s thrown 10 TDs this season against just three INTs.
Cincinnati has won six of its last seven games (4-3 ATS) to pull into a three-way tie for first in the Big East with the Mountaineers and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in the eight-team division.
Louisville has dropped two straight, both on the road, including last week’s 41-7 disaster in Pittsburgh as a six-point underdog. The Cardinals lead the Big East with 21 turnovers and coughed it up five times against the Panthers last week, including a fumble and interception that were returned for scores.
Cardinals’ QB Hunter Cantwell was replaced twice last week by redshirt freshman Matt Simms, but Cantwell is slated to start tonight even though he’s completing just 57.9 percent of his throws and has 13 TDs and 11 INTs.
Louisville has won the last five matchups (4-1 ATS) with nearby Cincinnati and nine of the last 10 (8-2 ATS). Last season, the Cardinals went to Cincinnati and got a 28-24 win as eight-point underdogs, handing the Bearcats their first loss of the 2007 season. The last time these two met in Louisville, the Cardinals prevailed 23-17 but came nowhere near covering as 25-point favorites.
Cincinnati is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 19-9-2 overall, 5-2-1 in Big East games, 25-10-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 12-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0-1 in November contests. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Friday affairs, but otherwise the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-9 at home and 5-2 following a non-cover.
The over is 9-3-1 in the Bearcats last 13 road games, but the under has been the play in seven of their last 10 after a straight-up win and five of their last seven after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Louisville has stayed under the total in four straight Big East contests.
Tony Pike has been playing well since he came back from injury and Cinny has two dynamic WR in Gilyard and Goodman. Also Gilyard is one of the better kickoff return guys in the nation which could be a big factor in deciding this game.
Louisville lost to Syracuse the worst team in the Big East and got blown out vs. Pitt last week. People talk about their great rushing defense, but they haven't played any great rushing attacks this year. The one game they played an elite RB is vs. UConn at home where Brown ran for 190 yards and they lost 26-21. Cinny has beat probably the two most dynamic QB in the Big East Grothe and White who they have both pretty much shut down and also Devine last week. I think people are putting too much stock into what Louisville has done to Cinny the past couple of years when they had Brohm and vs. Div IA teams at home they are only 1-2.
Louisville lost to Syracuse the worst team in the Big East and got blown out vs. Pitt last week. People talk about their great rushing defense, but they haven't played any great rushing attacks this year. The one game they played an elite RB is vs. UConn at home where Brown ran for 190 yards and they lost 26-21. Cinny has beat probably the two most dynamic QB in the Big East Grothe and White who they have both pretty much shut down and also Devine last week. I think people are putting too much stock into what Louisville has done to Cinny the past couple of years when they had Brohm and vs. Div IA teams at home they are only 1-2.
I'm on Cinci!!
I took Cinci -4. Cincy is definetly the better team and they are in the hunt for the Big East title and a BCS-berth.
I liked their road win against WV last week. My only concern is a possible look ahead next week (Pitt), but I have faith in HC Brian Kelly in not allowing the former to happen.
The Cards sucked against Syracuce @ home and got blown away by Pitt. I know my pick runs against the grain of home team underdog playing on a weekday. I'll take my chances with the better team and the better coach.
GL to you on whatever you decide!!
Henry
I took Cinci -4. Cincy is definetly the better team and they are in the hunt for the Big East title and a BCS-berth.
I liked their road win against WV last week. My only concern is a possible look ahead next week (Pitt), but I have faith in HC Brian Kelly in not allowing the former to happen.
The Cards sucked against Syracuce @ home and got blown away by Pitt. I know my pick runs against the grain of home team underdog playing on a weekday. I'll take my chances with the better team and the better coach.
GL to you on whatever you decide!!
Henry
Yeah, they got blown out by pitt because they turned the ball over 5 times to Pitt's zero. Any team that loses the TO battle 5-0 will look bad. They did shut down Pitt's run game, holding LeSean McCoy to his lowest output of the season. That really impressed me more than anything. I think they have a good chance to shut down Cincy's run game and make them one dimensional,and if they can take care of the ball, they can win. There is nothing special about this Cincy team. They are hardly dominant and they are very beatable. They almost lost at Akron earlier in the year, Louisville was able to upset South Florida at home just like UC.
hno:The line is certainly suspect to me, but I think it has a lot to do with Cincy's inability to win against UL recently. This year, again, UL is not playing well. ND made the comment about 5 turnovers being the reason UL lost to Pitt - well they still turned it over, and its not the first time. Cincy is playing well and they are very motivated as the SRs have never beaten UL.
