'The Brow' evolving into 'The King'
The realities of aging mean Anthony Davis will inherit LeBron James' crown
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
Tonight, Anthony Davis and LeBron James will meet in Cleveland, when Davis' New Orleans Pelicans face James' Cleveland Cavaliers. That might not be the last time their paths intersect in the near future, and not only in terms of the return matchup Dec. 12 in the Big Easy.As both players age, it's seemingly inevitable that Davis will catch James<offer>, possibly sooner rather than later.</offer>
[h=3](Gradual) Decline of the King[/h]
Of all the explanations posited for James' slow start in his return to Cleveland, from his offseason weight loss to a hidden injury, the simplest one is his age. James will be 30 on Dec. 30, putting him firmly beyond the peak age for an NBA star. In general, NBA players appear to peak statistically at age 27, although it's more accurate to describe a peak range between ages 25 and 29.
While stars play by a slightly different set of rules, they too are generally in decline by age 30. Here's how the 12 players with at least 150 career wins above replacement player who have entered the league since 1990 have aged on average, as a percentage of their best single-season rating:
<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171); background: transparent;">Kevin Pelton/ESPN.com</cite>
This group peaked at age 28, and just two of the players (point guards Jason Kidd and Steve Nash) enjoyed their best season after age 29.
As important as the concept of peak age is, a single aging curve obscures some of the important details about the aging process. Really, there are two effects battling against each other. Players peak athletically before age 27, but they continue to add skills and experience throughout their career.
To try to quantify the distinction, I separated statistics that largely measure athleticism (offensive rebound percentage, steal percentage and block percentage) from those that primarily measure learned skills (shooting, turnover percentage and foul percentage). Among players with careers of 10 years or longer, here are the average aging curves for both types of stats, along with the combination of the two.
<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171); background: transparent;">Kevin Pelton/ESPN.com</cite>
The graph shows that athleticism-based stats (blue) generally peak at the start of a player's career and trend downward over time. Meanwhile, players continue to improve their skills and experience (red) until late in their careers. The green line approximates the overall aging curve. Before age 27, players gain more skills and experience than they lose athleticism. After this point, the athleticism drain causes them to decline.
That's generally what we've seen with James. His improvement as a shooter, along with the selectivity playing with great teammates in Miami afforded him, allowed James to become more efficient than ever deep into his 20s. We'll likely see that continue with the Cavaliers once James is comfortable with his new teammates -- and, perhaps more importantly, as the younger ones improve at running the offense.
At the same time, James' waning athleticism has manifested itself in weaker defensive stats, particularly in terms of blocked shots, and fewer offensive rebounds. It became clear during the Heat's 2014 playoff run that James wasn't merely coasting during the regular season. He isn't the same athlete he once was, and he shouldn't be expected to be. We're at the point where James' gains in skills and experience are unlikely to entirely overcome this drop-off.
[h=3]The rise of Davis[/h]
The same aging curve working against James continues to push Davis inexorably toward superstardom. At 21, the Pelicans' big man needn't yet worry about losing athleticism, and he seems to improve his skills by the day. Early in the season, Davis leads qualified players in PERand win percentage (the equivalent per-minute WARP rating); he is second in win shares per 48 minutes and box plus-minus.
Davis will have a tough time sustaining some of his early numbers, most notably a substantial uptick in his block percentage from last season's league-leading mark that can be traced to a nine-block season opener. Other improvements are likely to be more sustainable, such as his increased usage rate and a drop in turnover rate. We'll see where that leaves Davis relative to James and Kevin Durant in the NBA's hierarchy of stars, once Durant has returned from the fractured bone in his foot that has sidelined him.
It's now clearer than ever that, barring injury, Davis is on track to become the league's best player.
And that moment, which once seemed distant in the future, might already be within view. It's simply a matter of time -- and age.
[h=3]News and Notes[/h][h=4]Strength of Schedule[/h]
<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
• Which team has had the toughest schedule over the first two weeks of the NBA season? The chart at right shows the five hardest and easiest schedules in terms of points better than or worse than all average opponents, based on location and opponent performance this season.
The Boston Celtics have played six teams that made the playoffs a year ago, and while the Indiana Pacers are no longer a challenging foe, the other five are off to above-average starts. The Oklahoma City Thunder have gotten no favor playing without Durant and Russell Westbrook, while the Golden State Warriors were the last undefeated team (until Sunday night) despite a tough slate. At the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Pistons haven't taken advantage of weak opposition, a troubling sign.
• With Golden State's loss at Phoenix, the league's longest winning streak now belongs to the 6-1 Toronto Raptors, who crushed the Philadelphia 76ers 120-88 for their fourth consecutive win. At plus-11.6 points per game, the Raptors also have the NBA's best point differential, and while blowing out the Sixers isn't much of an accomplishment, Toronto started the weekend with an impressive 103-84 win over the Washington Wizards. Though it's far too early to start booking travel north of the border for the late spring in anticipation of a deep Raptors playoff run, you might want to get your passport just in case.
• Whether Lakers fans would get free tacos (they did) wasn't the only reason to stay tuned to the closing moments of the Lakers' opening win Sunday night, a 107-92 victory over theCharlotte Hornets.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Down 17 with 2:41 left, Hornets coach Steve Clifford conceded by putting Bismack Biyombo and Gerald Henderson in the game. Biyombo had yet to play all season after losing his job as backup center to journeyman Jason Maxiell, while Henderson fell behind rookie P.J. Hairston in Clifford's rotation on Friday, getting a DNP-CD for the first time since his rookie season.It's reasonable to guess that both Biyombo and Henderson could become trade candidates. While it's hard to imagine much interest in Henderson's contract -- which has a season-plus remaining and pays him $6 million a year -- Biyombo could be an interesting buy-low candidate with his expiring contract. Though Biyombo is one of the league's worst offensive players, he is a premier rim protector who could help a team like the Cavaliers.
• Link of the day: The D-League tipped off its 14th season Saturday, which meant the debut of former Grinnell College assistant David Arseneault Jr. as head coach of the Reno Bighorns, theSacramento Kings' affiliate. The Grinnell system yielded a 158-135 loss to the Idaho Stampede with a box score that must be seen to be believed.
The realities of aging mean Anthony Davis will inherit LeBron James' crown
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
Tonight, Anthony Davis and LeBron James will meet in Cleveland, when Davis' New Orleans Pelicans face James' Cleveland Cavaliers. That might not be the last time their paths intersect in the near future, and not only in terms of the return matchup Dec. 12 in the Big Easy.As both players age, it's seemingly inevitable that Davis will catch James<offer>, possibly sooner rather than later.</offer>
[h=3](Gradual) Decline of the King[/h]
Of all the explanations posited for James' slow start in his return to Cleveland, from his offseason weight loss to a hidden injury, the simplest one is his age. James will be 30 on Dec. 30, putting him firmly beyond the peak age for an NBA star. In general, NBA players appear to peak statistically at age 27, although it's more accurate to describe a peak range between ages 25 and 29.
While stars play by a slightly different set of rules, they too are generally in decline by age 30. Here's how the 12 players with at least 150 career wins above replacement player who have entered the league since 1990 have aged on average, as a percentage of their best single-season rating:
This group peaked at age 28, and just two of the players (point guards Jason Kidd and Steve Nash) enjoyed their best season after age 29.
As important as the concept of peak age is, a single aging curve obscures some of the important details about the aging process. Really, there are two effects battling against each other. Players peak athletically before age 27, but they continue to add skills and experience throughout their career.
To try to quantify the distinction, I separated statistics that largely measure athleticism (offensive rebound percentage, steal percentage and block percentage) from those that primarily measure learned skills (shooting, turnover percentage and foul percentage). Among players with careers of 10 years or longer, here are the average aging curves for both types of stats, along with the combination of the two.
The graph shows that athleticism-based stats (blue) generally peak at the start of a player's career and trend downward over time. Meanwhile, players continue to improve their skills and experience (red) until late in their careers. The green line approximates the overall aging curve. Before age 27, players gain more skills and experience than they lose athleticism. After this point, the athleticism drain causes them to decline.
That's generally what we've seen with James. His improvement as a shooter, along with the selectivity playing with great teammates in Miami afforded him, allowed James to become more efficient than ever deep into his 20s. We'll likely see that continue with the Cavaliers once James is comfortable with his new teammates -- and, perhaps more importantly, as the younger ones improve at running the offense.
At the same time, James' waning athleticism has manifested itself in weaker defensive stats, particularly in terms of blocked shots, and fewer offensive rebounds. It became clear during the Heat's 2014 playoff run that James wasn't merely coasting during the regular season. He isn't the same athlete he once was, and he shouldn't be expected to be. We're at the point where James' gains in skills and experience are unlikely to entirely overcome this drop-off.
[h=3]The rise of Davis[/h]
The same aging curve working against James continues to push Davis inexorably toward superstardom. At 21, the Pelicans' big man needn't yet worry about losing athleticism, and he seems to improve his skills by the day. Early in the season, Davis leads qualified players in PERand win percentage (the equivalent per-minute WARP rating); he is second in win shares per 48 minutes and box plus-minus.
Davis will have a tough time sustaining some of his early numbers, most notably a substantial uptick in his block percentage from last season's league-leading mark that can be traced to a nine-block season opener. Other improvements are likely to be more sustainable, such as his increased usage rate and a drop in turnover rate. We'll see where that leaves Davis relative to James and Kevin Durant in the NBA's hierarchy of stars, once Durant has returned from the fractured bone in his foot that has sidelined him.
It's now clearer than ever that, barring injury, Davis is on track to become the league's best player.
And that moment, which once seemed distant in the future, might already be within view. It's simply a matter of time -- and age.
[h=3]News and Notes[/h][h=4]Strength of Schedule[/h]
| Team | G | SOS |
|---|---|---|
| Boston | 6 | 3.2 |
| Oklahoma City | 7 | 2.2 |
| Golden State | 6 | 1.9 |
| Dallas | 7 | 1.9 |
| San Antonio | 5 | 1.7 |
| Phoenix | 7 | -1.2 |
| Chicago | 7 | -1.9 |
| Milwaukee | 7 | -2.1 |
| Brooklyn | 6 | -3.2 |
| Detroit | 6 | -3.9 |
<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
• Which team has had the toughest schedule over the first two weeks of the NBA season? The chart at right shows the five hardest and easiest schedules in terms of points better than or worse than all average opponents, based on location and opponent performance this season.
The Boston Celtics have played six teams that made the playoffs a year ago, and while the Indiana Pacers are no longer a challenging foe, the other five are off to above-average starts. The Oklahoma City Thunder have gotten no favor playing without Durant and Russell Westbrook, while the Golden State Warriors were the last undefeated team (until Sunday night) despite a tough slate. At the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Pistons haven't taken advantage of weak opposition, a troubling sign.
• With Golden State's loss at Phoenix, the league's longest winning streak now belongs to the 6-1 Toronto Raptors, who crushed the Philadelphia 76ers 120-88 for their fourth consecutive win. At plus-11.6 points per game, the Raptors also have the NBA's best point differential, and while blowing out the Sixers isn't much of an accomplishment, Toronto started the weekend with an impressive 103-84 win over the Washington Wizards. Though it's far too early to start booking travel north of the border for the late spring in anticipation of a deep Raptors playoff run, you might want to get your passport just in case.
• Whether Lakers fans would get free tacos (they did) wasn't the only reason to stay tuned to the closing moments of the Lakers' opening win Sunday night, a 107-92 victory over theCharlotte Hornets.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Biyombo
</center>Down 17 with 2:41 left, Hornets coach Steve Clifford conceded by putting Bismack Biyombo and Gerald Henderson in the game. Biyombo had yet to play all season after losing his job as backup center to journeyman Jason Maxiell, while Henderson fell behind rookie P.J. Hairston in Clifford's rotation on Friday, getting a DNP-CD for the first time since his rookie season.It's reasonable to guess that both Biyombo and Henderson could become trade candidates. While it's hard to imagine much interest in Henderson's contract -- which has a season-plus remaining and pays him $6 million a year -- Biyombo could be an interesting buy-low candidate with his expiring contract. Though Biyombo is one of the league's worst offensive players, he is a premier rim protector who could help a team like the Cavaliers.
• Link of the day: The D-League tipped off its 14th season Saturday, which meant the debut of former Grinnell College assistant David Arseneault Jr. as head coach of the Reno Bighorns, theSacramento Kings' affiliate. The Grinnell system yielded a 158-135 loss to the Idaho Stampede with a box score that must be seen to be believed.
