Is a Florida play too obvious?

[goodcall]

Just looking at pitchers, Florida seems to have a clear advantage:

NYM - Pelfrey:
Rookie, only 3 games, 5.28 ERA, coming off a loss

Fla - Olsen:
9-3 last 12, 2.08 ERA last 9, including a two-hitter (no runs) through 6 in his last game

And not even a clear favorite

Thoughts?

 

[TKE683]

I like Florida here as well, but I think the line is that way just because the Mets are the big public team and people arent getting how good Florida is. Add to that Olsen can be wild at times and you'd have to give the hitting edge to mets lineup. But i'll be on Florida in this one.

 

[goodcall]

yeah Mets can definitely hit the ball...I figured that's why the line was like that.

good luck to you

 

[Addict101]

I looked at the over in this game, but there is that chance that Olsen could be on his A game and shut down the Mets lineup. I'm gonna stay away from this one, but if you are going to make a play the Fish seem like the right play. Good luck to you both.

 

[atlantic10]

Why would Florida at 49-56 ever be favored over the Mets at 63-41 and the best team in the national league? Maybe with Willis at home they might be -110. Way too much emphasis is put on starting pitchers, Vegas doesnt make that mistake.

 

[TKE683]

Overall record is different, but as of late Mets are 12-7 and the Marlins 11-7 to close out the month. The Marlins seem to be a young team that keeps getting better and better as does Olsen.

 

[sprtfrk]

i think i am going with the marlins in the first five. their pen is shaky

 

[goodcall]

Why would Florida at 49-56 ever be favored over the Mets at 63-41 and the best team in the national league? Maybe with Willis at home they might be -110. Way too much emphasis is put on starting pitchers, Vegas doesnt make that mistake.

Those records show that in general, Mets pitchers are better than Florida's pitchers. Tonight, however, the Marlins have the better guy on the mound. Are you saying it's a good idea to blindly bet the best few teams in the league when they are dogs?

I agree that starting pitchers are over-examined by the public, but books set the line to get equal action, not by who they think will win.

 

[shipdapaper]

Why would Florida at 49-56 ever be favored over the Mets at 63-41 and the best team in the national league? Maybe with Willis at home they might be -110. Way too much emphasis is put on starting pitchers, Vegas doesnt make that mistake.

And i think the public puts way to much emphasis on the Win - Loss Record as well...probably more than the pitching match up....

 

[bearmelt]

Mets are 8-3 away vs. lefties scoring 7.11 runs/game, 9 runs/game vs. L last 10!. Fla scores 4.31 home vs. R. Mets are 16-5 game 1 after a win. They are feeling their oats after coming off a road sweep of a Braves team that owned them in the past, was hot and trash. Sanchez injury is a bad break, but I would not bet agaist them. Olsen coming off 2 shutouts due for a 5-6 inning/3 run effort. Top prospect Pelfrey has great stuff and should bounce back from 5 run stinker. I believe his first two games (5-6 IP/2ER) is more representative. Chasing the hot pitcher, going to the well once too often will kill you in the long run, as they usually come back to earth. Pitchers off bad outings usually bounce back. Go Mets.

 

[goodcall]

bump...same situation today

Nolasco has been a beast lately...although his last performance against the Mets was a disaster to say the least

 

[jammanxc]

marlins will win today

 

[TKE683]

I'm hitting Florida again myself.