Pure stats heavily favor Toledo, but ISU has had a much tougher schedule...the age old handicapping dilemna, lol. In this case, I think, the statistical advantage was strong enough to warrant TOL as a very live dog here.
Interested to hear your reasoning as the line swing suggests as much.
Iowa St. is playing at home and circling the wagons after their AD publicly backed the coaches and team and chastised blown officiating in recent home losses.
Iowa St. in a must win situation to keep bowl hopes alive
Toledo w much less to play for here in a non-conference game sandwiched between conference games including an overtime victory last week at western michigan in a game they never lead
I follow ISU and Toledo extremely close. I can tell you that Mightyminnow hit the nail on the head with the "circling the wagons" comment.
If Toledo's RB (Kareem Hunt) plays then the game becomes a little more tight IMO. He is a very good RB and changes the way this game is played.
I think ISU will be out to prove something and I see them pulling out a 6-7 point win with Toledo scoring late to make it a one possession game. Iowa State has gotten better and better, since the first game of the season - regardless of their wins and losses.
At the end of the day, are you going to put money on Toledo who has less to play for? I put more money on that unwritten rule more than any stat line.
I guess it is a bit of a sandwich spot for Iowa St. with Toledo in between conference foes Okla St and Texas, but that is some interesting line movement right there.
There's been some strange things going on with Toledo lines all season. Remember back to week #2 when Mizzou opened up around a 6.5 point favorite at Toledo. With about 70% of the bets coming in on Mizzou, the line fell from 6.5 to 3.5 and Mizzou covered rather easily. Moving to week #3, Toledo was @ Cincy playing their first game of the year. Cincy opened around -11.5 and the line moved down to -9.5 again with about 70% of the bets on Cincy. Here we go again with more RLM on Toledo vs an FBS squad. Will this be the week the pull off the upset? Not so sure, but would like to see that line go down to -2.5 again.
Iowa State is in a must win situation - your crazy to be betting Toldeo against an FBS team at home during a must win situation. Plain and simple. Money should be on Iowa State until it gets to a TD, then you start to think about your balancing act.
As a Toledo Alum 09' and preffered walk on,
This team is know for the funky lines and being on the take.
U know when the FBI starts locking cats up there is/was something there.
Still think "gary" manni is waiting to stand trial, some 7-8 yrs later
I have ISU/Under thinking of hedging with toledo/over
Waiting till before kick when the moneyline will climb on my Rockets