http://collegefootballnews.com/
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/
http://www.donbest.com/ie.htm
http://www.covers.com/
http://he.net/~budsport/index.php
http://www.twominutewarning.com/
http://talksport.com/index.cfm
Hope this is not overkill, just a few of the sites I find usefull during the football season..Good luck
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/
http://www.donbest.com/ie.htm
http://www.covers.com/
http://he.net/~budsport/index.php
http://www.twominutewarning.com/
http://talksport.com/index.cfm
Hope this is not overkill, just a few of the sites I find usefull during the football season..Good luck
I look at rush avg defense and avg yds per rush offense, weight it more and more as the season progresses. But it's just one small part of the big picture, a lot of the public doesnt even know this stat exists, so it's fairly valuable. It really helps to breakdown a team using home vs away. Some teams do perform better on the road than at home, but typically a good team may win only half of their road games...or less. And that applies to all sports. Dont look at rankings in college sports, it helps not to even know who is ranked what. They are not a good barometer of performance, if you look at rankings heading into the final stretches of seasons and the final outcomes it might help illustrate this. Dont be shy taking dog moneylines. Just a couple of things that I wish I had always recognized.
Browse through this Handicapping Zone forum. You can also search by topic/author. Also search the indivdual sports forum for the sport you are interested in. Lots of great info in past posts here.
Here's a quick list of posters that I've found informative for handicapping:
Sixth Sense
ATX
Ben Dover
Peep
I'm sure I am forgetting some great posters. Many more than I can list here!!!
Good luck buddy
Here's a quick list of posters that I've found informative for handicapping:
Sixth Sense
ATX
Ben Dover
Peep
I'm sure I am forgetting some great posters. Many more than I can list here!!!
Good luck buddy
i very rarely see this very important aspect of sports handcapping or betting mentioned..........IMo its the only thing that determines winners and losers........i am talking about the line...yes that number with the - or + beside it........
you do your research on stats, power ratings, trends, angles, every last detail is considered, except your strongest play is also the betting publics favorite and the line skyrockets, many times handcappers talk themselves into taking a team at a bad number or a number that has lost all value........they "should" get there anyway they reason.....
guys...........the oddsmakers are pretty sharp dudes, if you cant find a game that you think the line is way off........then you better pay attention to lines.........
case in point today.....if you liked v-tch, at the opening # your a winner, if not at best a push, lots of people are still asking themselves why they layed -21'...............
another game was wiscy/w. vir.............the line opened at 3, but guys were touting wiscy at -5.........they covered this time, but if you make a habit out of taking bad numbers, then you will not be successfull.....this is fact not opinion.....gl
you do your research on stats, power ratings, trends, angles, every last detail is considered, except your strongest play is also the betting publics favorite and the line skyrockets, many times handcappers talk themselves into taking a team at a bad number or a number that has lost all value........they "should" get there anyway they reason.....
guys...........the oddsmakers are pretty sharp dudes, if you cant find a game that you think the line is way off........then you better pay attention to lines.........
case in point today.....if you liked v-tch, at the opening # your a winner, if not at best a push, lots of people are still asking themselves why they layed -21'...............
another game was wiscy/w. vir.............the line opened at 3, but guys were touting wiscy at -5.........they covered this time, but if you make a habit out of taking bad numbers, then you will not be successfull.....this is fact not opinion.....gl
dimes that is one of the best post iv'e seen here makes a ton of sence, but let me ask you a question you say to go ahead and find your angles,trends,stats, power rankings and you will on the same side as joe public and i agree but is the answer too find a different way to cap or just be the first guy done with his homework and grab the early line? thanks
Good last question. 70% of the time if you follow the "bet the fav early and the dog late" you will get better prices.
As with some of the examples above, square money tends to flood in to the fav - especially a big fav - on the day of the game. This is not the time to be backing the fav, but will be the ideal time to back the dog if that is your pick.
Tennis is my main sport and follows this rule, but there are times when it does not apply, these are not always easy to know in advance.
One clear one is if you are backing someone wholly or partly because you believe the other guy may be injured, take the opening line whether he is a dog or not. As time passes and more bettors realise the injury risk, your guy's price will shorten.
I'd imagine this sort of thing also appplies to other sports.
I like to measure the opening & closing lines against the lines I got to make sure I am consistently getting the best prices on my picks.
As with some of the examples above, square money tends to flood in to the fav - especially a big fav - on the day of the game. This is not the time to be backing the fav, but will be the ideal time to back the dog if that is your pick.
Tennis is my main sport and follows this rule, but there are times when it does not apply, these are not always easy to know in advance.
One clear one is if you are backing someone wholly or partly because you believe the other guy may be injured, take the opening line whether he is a dog or not. As time passes and more bettors realise the injury risk, your guy's price will shorten.
I'd imagine this sort of thing also appplies to other sports.
I like to measure the opening & closing lines against the lines I got to make sure I am consistently getting the best prices on my picks.
teddy..............let me clarify
alot of times, you will find your strongest selection (based on whatever capping system you use) will also be a public favorite......
its important to get down at a number that still has value.....
and its important not to talk yourself into taking a bad number...ie. your system says -9 is okay, but the line has moved to -11 everwhere......that should be a pass situation...imo..
cappers fall into the same trap as many squares do.......thinking they have to give a selection or bet on every game........nope thats the bookies job.......
as the season progresses the oddsmakers get sharper posting lines.........you will see that a half-point will come into play on sides and totals with amazing accuracy..........
gl
alot of times, you will find your strongest selection (based on whatever capping system you use) will also be a public favorite......
its important to get down at a number that still has value.....
and its important not to talk yourself into taking a bad number...ie. your system says -9 is okay, but the line has moved to -11 everwhere......that should be a pass situation...imo..
cappers fall into the same trap as many squares do.......thinking they have to give a selection or bet on every game........nope thats the bookies job.......
as the season progresses the oddsmakers get sharper posting lines.........you will see that a half-point will come into play on sides and totals with amazing accuracy..........
gl
dont handicap, invest.
knowing which way the line will move is more than half the battle.
keep records.
did you win by luck or did you forecast?
the lines are not always an accurate indication of what the score will be or should be, knowing which way they are prodding you is key.
give this time, handicap each game, notate your leans, see how they turn out, see why/how/where you were wrong, make adjustments.
wager no more than 2% bankroll until you have a documented record of identifying value.
knowing which way the line will move is more than half the battle.
keep records.
did you win by luck or did you forecast?
the lines are not always an accurate indication of what the score will be or should be, knowing which way they are prodding you is key.
give this time, handicap each game, notate your leans, see how they turn out, see why/how/where you were wrong, make adjustments.
wager no more than 2% bankroll until you have a documented record of identifying value.
atx & dimes im having a hard time figuring out why i should bet a 220 dog just because i have them capped at 170 and everyone says 'well thats good value' but still i have them at 170 which means they should still lose, so why should i care if i found a 220? mlb of course, i had a few tonight i hope this makes sence. also you guys sure in the hell sound like you know your shit do you consider yourselfs sharps? thanks
i do not handicapp any sports.......have been known to read the racing form, but thats it.....
i would be hard pressed to give you any statistics to back up anything i post.......not that the stats dont support it, its just that ive never been a "stat" type of person....
over 10yrs bookmaking, being in contact with the "sharpest" gamblers and bookmakers in the world, and learning this business the hard way has rubbed off a little bit......
i would be hard pressed to give you any statistics to back up anything i post.......not that the stats dont support it, its just that ive never been a "stat" type of person....
over 10yrs bookmaking, being in contact with the "sharpest" gamblers and bookmakers in the world, and learning this business the hard way has rubbed off a little bit......
