No Pac-12 coach faces higher expectations than Mark Helfrich
11 AM PT
Travis Haney ESPN Staff Writer
The conference has no new coaches, unless you count Clay Helton’s promotion at USC, and it features only one coach legitimately on the hot seat. For the second straight year, this is -- top to bottom -- the country’s most stable league.
These rankings go in descending order from least to most stable. Keep in mind that stability is not solely determined by whether a program will want to part ways with its head coach if there are perceived failings; often, success will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a program to keep a coach from leaving for a seemingly better job. Here is the breakdown of each Pac-12 coaching situation.
12. Mike MacIntrye, Colorado
Fourth season, 10-27 record
With an experienced quarterback and improved depth and talent, MacIntyre was optimistic last summer when he spoke with Insider. But another one-win Pac-12 season -- the Buffaloes have just two league wins in his three seasons -- leaves MacIntyre’s future very much in doubt. The Pac-12 South is brutally difficult when you’re playing catch-up, and there’s seemingly nowhere for the Buffs to climb.
Peers genuinely believe in MacIntyre’s ability as a coach, citing his work at San Jose State, but this particular situation just may be too daunting. The question is whether it’ll be any better for the next guy. It at least looks like the school is more financially supportive of football than it has been in the past.
11. Sonny Dykes, California
Fourth season, 14-23 record
After an awkward few weeks in the winter, during which Dykes and the school couldn’t agree on an extension -- and Dykes, in the meantime, kicked the tires on several other jobs -- the sides finally did come together in March for a new deal. But there still isn’t enough goodwill at this point to feel warmly about Dykes’ long-term future at the school.
Say this: He has done a nice job in Berkeley, going from one to five to eight wins in his three seasons. Quarterback Jared Goff was also the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft.
Cal would be wise to hold onto Dykes, but coaches and agents do wonder how badly he wants to be held onto by Cal. They think his roots in the South -- and in Texas, in particular -- will eventually draw him back closer to home.
10. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
Fifth season, 33-20 record
Like Dykes, Rodriguez experienced an awkward stretch this offseason with his school, as he actively looked into openings at Miami, South Carolina and Virginia Tech. And yet he’s still in Tucson.
AD Greg Byrne backed his coach after he declined South Carolina’s overture, but where does that truly leave Rodriguez in relation to his boss and the fan base?
Coaches and agents tell Insider that it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see RichRod again looking around later this year. Those close to the 53-year-old say that he’s interested in working closer to his native West Virginia. They also say that Rodriguez, even given how well he has done at Arizona, is aware that continuing to be competitive in the Pac-12 South will be difficult.
“It’s, what, the seventh- or eighth-best recruiting job in that league?” an agent said. “It’s a really hard place to win.”
9. Mark Helfrich, Oregon
Fourth season, 33-8
The Ducks won nine regular-season games in 2015, and yet you’d think they were abject failures. That’s the high bar Chip Kelly left for Helfrich. And it's why Helfrich faces an increasing amount of pressure entering his fourth year.
Two aspects to monitor, in particular: Brady Hoke takes over a defense that, coaches say, has not been the same since former DC Nick Alotti retired.
“You can tell they’ve missed his fire and energy,” a head coach in another league said.
Hoke will be eager to work again after a year away from the sidelines. It’s imperative for Helfrich’s security that he bolster that side of the ball.
And the other element to watch is the quarterback position, where there’s a chance Oregon will again start an FCS transfer. There are several young quarterbacks on campus or committed in future classes. Helfrich and the offensive staff have to better develop that position after Marcus Mariota set such a high standard.
8. Clay Helton, USC
First season
The decision to promote Helton, twice a USC interim coach, into the full-time role proved to be divisive, even among Trojans boosters and fans. Some see Helton as too close to the same Pete Carroll tree branches that failed with Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian. Some wondered why a proud brand such as USC couldn’t find someone better than a first-time head coach.
The 43-year-old Helton is the son of a longtime coach who has an easygoing demeanor. His makeup feels very different than Kiffin or Sarkisian, though there’s no way to defend this as anything other than another insular hire. It’s on Helton to prove outgoing AD Pat Haden correct in keeping the job in-house.
7. Todd Graham, Arizona State
Fifth season, 34-19 record
Last season was a complete dud for the Sun Devils. Coming off consecutive 10-win seasons, 2015 appeared to have great promise for ASU. Graham spent the summer months touting the team as special and one to watch. Some analysts projected a playoff run for ASU, which returned a great deal of talent and a fifth-year senior QB.
The Devils went 6-7.
Graham earned quite a bit of capital in his first three seasons, but he lost a lot of that momentum in 2015. Another season like that, and Graham would be trending toward the hot seat discussion.
6. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
12th season, 95-46 record
A number of coaches and agents have told Insider in each of the past two offseasons that they were surprised Whittingham didn’t bolt for another job.
For one, he has won 19 games the past two seasons in an extremely difficult division. That’s a hard act to sustain at Utah, which is not recruiting at nearly the level of Pac-12 South foes USC and UCLA, or even Arizona State.
Additionally, there were the reports a year ago about friction between Whittingham and longtime AD Chris Hill. That buzz in the coaching community seems to have subsided, and Whittingham has been given contract extensions each of the past two Januarys. This situation feels more stable than in the past year or two, but the 56-year-old Whittingham could still be on the lookout for a parachute to a gig with an easier path to victories.
5. David Shaw, Stanford
Sixth season, 54-14 record
Every year, our NFL insiders such as Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen talk about the NFL's intense desire to pluck Shaw. And every year, Shaw shoots down those notions and says he’s happy at Stanford.
That could always change -- perhaps he’s awaiting the perfect situation in the NFL -- but Shaw does seem content to continue his excellent run at Stanford, where he’s averaged a mere 10.8 wins per season and won three Pac-12 titles in five years. Shaw might even have a long-awaited Heisman Trophy winner for the Cardinal this fall, with do-it-all back Christian McCaffrey returning.
4. Jim Mora, UCLA
Fifth season, 37-16
Like Shaw, Schefter and Mort also floated Mora’s name this past offseason as a candidate to move back to the pro game. But agents and college coaches are skeptical of that notion.
“I think he’s home now,” one agent told Insider. “I think he’s a college guy now.”
Injuries to star players such as Myles Jack undercut the Bruins’ season in 2015, but coaches think Mora has done a terrific job in elevating UCLA’s profile and making the Bruins competitive in the Pac-12. They laud his staff’s recruiting ability, saying UCLA has had as much talent as anyone in the league the past two or three seasons. They say the Bruins should be in a Rose Bowl soon.
3. Gary Andersen, Oregon State
Second season, 2-10 record
It was a horrific start for Andersen’s return to the West Coast, but no one expected much from a team that didn’t bring back a great deal of talent and was forced to start a freshman quarterback.
Andersen will not be judged too harshly for that first year, but the clock is ticking for him to show improvement. Based on his track record at Utah State and Wisconsin -- his teams won 30 games from 2012-14 -- expect the Beavers to trend upward. Perhaps they’ll follow a similar track to that of Dykes at Cal.
One thing to note is that Todd Stansbury took over as AD after Andersen was hired. But Stansbury was at OSU from 2003-12, so he does understand the landscape and how difficult it is to win in Corvallis. Andersen will be given plenty of time, coaches believe.
2. Chris Petersen, Washington
Third season, 15-12 record
A year ago, Huskies boosters would text Insider that they weren’t quite sure about Petersen and wondered about his vision for the program.
And now? They have pretty well bought in, seeing glimpses of the success at Boise State beginning to take hold in Seattle. With a freshman quarterback and a slew of new starters in 2015, the Huskies overachieved to reach -- and win -- a bowl game.
Expectations are starting to climb for U-Dub, and Petersen has proven steady enough in the past to manage and handle what’s coming. This is a great fit that is improving with time.
1. Mike Leach, Washington State
Fifth season, 21-29 record
We’ve noted before in similar exercises that Washington State, understanding the difficulty of the job, was going to be patient with Leach -- but that he needed to win. Well, the 9-4 season in 2015 went a long way in pacifying any Cougars fans upset with Leach’s 12 total wins in the first three years. So the Pirate is again back in good graces with most every supporter.
Really, the greatest threat to stability at Wazzu is if Leach wakes up one day and decides he wants to write nonfiction full time. Or become a professional archer. Or a botanist. He’s a curious guy. For now, he’ll stick with coaching ball.
11 AM PT
Travis Haney ESPN Staff Writer
The conference has no new coaches, unless you count Clay Helton’s promotion at USC, and it features only one coach legitimately on the hot seat. For the second straight year, this is -- top to bottom -- the country’s most stable league.
These rankings go in descending order from least to most stable. Keep in mind that stability is not solely determined by whether a program will want to part ways with its head coach if there are perceived failings; often, success will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a program to keep a coach from leaving for a seemingly better job. Here is the breakdown of each Pac-12 coaching situation.
12. Mike MacIntrye, Colorado
With an experienced quarterback and improved depth and talent, MacIntyre was optimistic last summer when he spoke with Insider. But another one-win Pac-12 season -- the Buffaloes have just two league wins in his three seasons -- leaves MacIntyre’s future very much in doubt. The Pac-12 South is brutally difficult when you’re playing catch-up, and there’s seemingly nowhere for the Buffs to climb.
Peers genuinely believe in MacIntyre’s ability as a coach, citing his work at San Jose State, but this particular situation just may be too daunting. The question is whether it’ll be any better for the next guy. It at least looks like the school is more financially supportive of football than it has been in the past.
11. Sonny Dykes, California
After an awkward few weeks in the winter, during which Dykes and the school couldn’t agree on an extension -- and Dykes, in the meantime, kicked the tires on several other jobs -- the sides finally did come together in March for a new deal. But there still isn’t enough goodwill at this point to feel warmly about Dykes’ long-term future at the school.
Say this: He has done a nice job in Berkeley, going from one to five to eight wins in his three seasons. Quarterback Jared Goff was also the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft.
Cal would be wise to hold onto Dykes, but coaches and agents do wonder how badly he wants to be held onto by Cal. They think his roots in the South -- and in Texas, in particular -- will eventually draw him back closer to home.
10. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
Like Dykes, Rodriguez experienced an awkward stretch this offseason with his school, as he actively looked into openings at Miami, South Carolina and Virginia Tech. And yet he’s still in Tucson.
AD Greg Byrne backed his coach after he declined South Carolina’s overture, but where does that truly leave Rodriguez in relation to his boss and the fan base?
Coaches and agents tell Insider that it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see RichRod again looking around later this year. Those close to the 53-year-old say that he’s interested in working closer to his native West Virginia. They also say that Rodriguez, even given how well he has done at Arizona, is aware that continuing to be competitive in the Pac-12 South will be difficult.
“It’s, what, the seventh- or eighth-best recruiting job in that league?” an agent said. “It’s a really hard place to win.”
9. Mark Helfrich, Oregon
The Ducks won nine regular-season games in 2015, and yet you’d think they were abject failures. That’s the high bar Chip Kelly left for Helfrich. And it's why Helfrich faces an increasing amount of pressure entering his fourth year.
Two aspects to monitor, in particular: Brady Hoke takes over a defense that, coaches say, has not been the same since former DC Nick Alotti retired.
“You can tell they’ve missed his fire and energy,” a head coach in another league said.
Hoke will be eager to work again after a year away from the sidelines. It’s imperative for Helfrich’s security that he bolster that side of the ball.
And the other element to watch is the quarterback position, where there’s a chance Oregon will again start an FCS transfer. There are several young quarterbacks on campus or committed in future classes. Helfrich and the offensive staff have to better develop that position after Marcus Mariota set such a high standard.
8. Clay Helton, USC
The decision to promote Helton, twice a USC interim coach, into the full-time role proved to be divisive, even among Trojans boosters and fans. Some see Helton as too close to the same Pete Carroll tree branches that failed with Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian. Some wondered why a proud brand such as USC couldn’t find someone better than a first-time head coach.
The 43-year-old Helton is the son of a longtime coach who has an easygoing demeanor. His makeup feels very different than Kiffin or Sarkisian, though there’s no way to defend this as anything other than another insular hire. It’s on Helton to prove outgoing AD Pat Haden correct in keeping the job in-house.
7. Todd Graham, Arizona State
Last season was a complete dud for the Sun Devils. Coming off consecutive 10-win seasons, 2015 appeared to have great promise for ASU. Graham spent the summer months touting the team as special and one to watch. Some analysts projected a playoff run for ASU, which returned a great deal of talent and a fifth-year senior QB.
The Devils went 6-7.
Graham earned quite a bit of capital in his first three seasons, but he lost a lot of that momentum in 2015. Another season like that, and Graham would be trending toward the hot seat discussion.
6. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
A number of coaches and agents have told Insider in each of the past two offseasons that they were surprised Whittingham didn’t bolt for another job.
For one, he has won 19 games the past two seasons in an extremely difficult division. That’s a hard act to sustain at Utah, which is not recruiting at nearly the level of Pac-12 South foes USC and UCLA, or even Arizona State.
Additionally, there were the reports a year ago about friction between Whittingham and longtime AD Chris Hill. That buzz in the coaching community seems to have subsided, and Whittingham has been given contract extensions each of the past two Januarys. This situation feels more stable than in the past year or two, but the 56-year-old Whittingham could still be on the lookout for a parachute to a gig with an easier path to victories.
5. David Shaw, Stanford
Every year, our NFL insiders such as Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen talk about the NFL's intense desire to pluck Shaw. And every year, Shaw shoots down those notions and says he’s happy at Stanford.
That could always change -- perhaps he’s awaiting the perfect situation in the NFL -- but Shaw does seem content to continue his excellent run at Stanford, where he’s averaged a mere 10.8 wins per season and won three Pac-12 titles in five years. Shaw might even have a long-awaited Heisman Trophy winner for the Cardinal this fall, with do-it-all back Christian McCaffrey returning.
4. Jim Mora, UCLA
Like Shaw, Schefter and Mort also floated Mora’s name this past offseason as a candidate to move back to the pro game. But agents and college coaches are skeptical of that notion.
“I think he’s home now,” one agent told Insider. “I think he’s a college guy now.”
Injuries to star players such as Myles Jack undercut the Bruins’ season in 2015, but coaches think Mora has done a terrific job in elevating UCLA’s profile and making the Bruins competitive in the Pac-12. They laud his staff’s recruiting ability, saying UCLA has had as much talent as anyone in the league the past two or three seasons. They say the Bruins should be in a Rose Bowl soon.
3. Gary Andersen, Oregon State
It was a horrific start for Andersen’s return to the West Coast, but no one expected much from a team that didn’t bring back a great deal of talent and was forced to start a freshman quarterback.
Andersen will not be judged too harshly for that first year, but the clock is ticking for him to show improvement. Based on his track record at Utah State and Wisconsin -- his teams won 30 games from 2012-14 -- expect the Beavers to trend upward. Perhaps they’ll follow a similar track to that of Dykes at Cal.
One thing to note is that Todd Stansbury took over as AD after Andersen was hired. But Stansbury was at OSU from 2003-12, so he does understand the landscape and how difficult it is to win in Corvallis. Andersen will be given plenty of time, coaches believe.
2. Chris Petersen, Washington
A year ago, Huskies boosters would text Insider that they weren’t quite sure about Petersen and wondered about his vision for the program.
And now? They have pretty well bought in, seeing glimpses of the success at Boise State beginning to take hold in Seattle. With a freshman quarterback and a slew of new starters in 2015, the Huskies overachieved to reach -- and win -- a bowl game.
Expectations are starting to climb for U-Dub, and Petersen has proven steady enough in the past to manage and handle what’s coming. This is a great fit that is improving with time.
1. Mike Leach, Washington State
We’ve noted before in similar exercises that Washington State, understanding the difficulty of the job, was going to be patient with Leach -- but that he needed to win. Well, the 9-4 season in 2015 went a long way in pacifying any Cougars fans upset with Leach’s 12 total wins in the first three years. So the Pirate is again back in good graces with most every supporter.
Really, the greatest threat to stability at Wazzu is if Leach wakes up one day and decides he wants to write nonfiction full time. Or become a professional archer. Or a botanist. He’s a curious guy. For now, he’ll stick with coaching ball.
