I would not bet you one way or the other but as far as I'm concerned I would lot rather just wager the + 1400 right now and not worry about anything else. +1800 or + 1400 doesn't mean all that much to me as I have no intention of wagering ML every single week. However lets keep track right now and see what happens in the very remote case that the Colts should happen to go undefeated ! Let's give the Colts the + 185 that Oly is offering right now and see what happens. Or do you have a far better line online at a really solid site ? I think you will be very surprised what will happen to the odds on all future games if Colts would somehow beat the Patriots and continue their run to a 16-0 record. Do you actual think the odds would remain what they are now ? The head bookmaker at the Hilton I believe it was said the line on the Miami at New England game could go as high as - 24 ! You guys try to project what lines will be far out in the future when that simply is not what actually happens in real life ! Whoever would have projected that the Patriots at Indy would be Patriots -5 1/2 to 6 IF one was told that Colts would be undefeated ?
You are missing my point ! Let me show you a few examples of why.
You gave me a few lines into Colts future games that are way off already. You said Colts over Atlanta would be - 101/2 . However this line is already up and the posted line is - 14 1/2 ! Also you give me the future line on Colts over Balt at a - 250 but that line is already up at -7 which would be closer to - 330 or so. Also what you are overlooking is that if the Colts should beat Patriots this Sunday.. They would become the new Momster of the NFL and their lines would fall more into where the lines are when teams play the Patriots. For instance Patriots are favored by 11 1/2 at Ravens while Colts are right now only favored by 7 ! Lines change for future games after every weekend depending upon how teams perform etc. It is clear foolish to try to accurately project ml 6 or 7 games ahead of time. However if Colts keep winning , I certainly don't expect lines to go down ! Much like what has happened to the Patriots future game lines... UP Up UP !
I just want to comment that I have been wagering on futures for Many many years and it has been by far my biggest $$ Maker so I for one don't have any problem with Vig on futures if you simply pay attention. I have cashed wagers like Saints to win their division at 100/1 ... Yes it did happen ! Too many to even bore you with but I love futures and I am very glad that most of you pay little attention to them ! :money8:
I'm done ! You just don't get it ! No problem but betting futures is not for you so just keep betting the Money lines. I love wagering on futures ! No sense arguing about it as Colts will most likely go down this weekend. However if the Colts should happen to win, We will keep track of it. Right now the ml on Colts is + 185 at OLy so I will use that for my calculation. You aren't being honest if you just always take the best line each week as if you were actually trying to make $$ on this wager... You would have to take a stand sometime during the week. We all wish that We would have the luxury of always getting the best line on every game every week.
Good Luck to you also ! By the way I wouldn't take + 185 or + 205 on the Colts ml. I think the Patriots are the clear winner ! Far better team IMHO
I have some $$ on Patriots at + 950 to win the Super Bowl and some $$ on Colts at 8/1 to win SB. Both wagers were made long before the season started. I also have Packers at 30/1 to win NFC. BTW... I think the ml on Colts will go even higher than + 205 I think it should be much higher but that doesn't change a thing. If Colts win this Sunday... Everything changes and that seems to be what you are not considering. No matter what anyone might think.. The people set the line, not the books. The books set a line out there that they hope is correct, but the public's perception is what decides where the line ends up.
You are not getting it. You might be great at selecting futures but you are leaving $ on the table going the future route. Most football futures have so much vig built into them. Why not take the time and select the best ML each week on Colts to come out better? If you think there is not much difference in +1400 compared to +1800, then I cant argue with you because that is HUGE and you are not into gambling for making a profit.
I hope the Colts have a solid winning streak for you to learn something.
I've been betting fultures for a very long time now and I have been making a killing. If you want to spend your time trying to out smart me ... More power to you. Time is Money as they say and you must have plenty of it. I know a decent bet when I see it and I wager it only once. GL to you !
Let's just clear up one thing. What We are discussing has really nothing to do with whether or not + 1400 is a good bet. What We differ on is whether or not the true odds would turn out to be + 1400 or perhaps +1800 or more doing it your way .. ML wager every game left. I,ve been saying all along that I know that + 1400 is available. What the true payout would be doing it your way will forever be a mystery unless it actually happens. However unless you start right away .. We will never know! So don't just sit on the pot ... Make your move.. You have to decide to take your ml wager sometime. My problem with tracing what the true outcome might actually be is it's not fair to sit back and then take whatever turns out to be the best ml that comes up all week. We all would love to always get that line. Tell me where and when you are going to buy your ticket and We will keep track of it. Name the book and time and line. However don't give me a sh-t book or Pinny as 95 % of us can't wager there.
For the record, I don't think this is a jumping up and down Martha great bet at + 1400. However I have some great odds on Patriots to win Super Bowl + 950 and also some ok $$ on Patriots to go 16-0 and +1400 on Colts insures me to have a live ticket after this weekend is over. Go Patriots is what I'm rooting for but 8/1 on Colts would be OK also !
