Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots 11/18/2012

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The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 80% of simulations over the Indianapolis Colts. Tom Brady is averaging 289 passing yards and 2.4 TDs per simulation and Stevan Ridley is projected for 98 rushing yards and a 48% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 19% of simulations where Indianapolis Colts wins, Andrew Luck averages 1.98 TD passes vs 0.64 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.36 TDs to 1.24 interceptions. Donald Brown averages 54 rushing yards and 0.41 rushing TDs when Indianapolis Colts wins and 35 yards and 0.17 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 70% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 89% of the time.
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