At 11-5 Indy won the divison by 4 games last year over the Titans who were their closest competitor, at 7-9.
Jacksonville was 4-12 and no way they make that big of a leap to compete for the division.
The Texans finished 2-14 and while many might have thought they could turn it around again, I think the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be their QB most of the year dampens the odds of that happening...