Indiana 8-01-2017

[Prof_Factor]

picks will be posted soon ... in the meantime, here is our 12-month longshot report for IND

Longshot List -  DATE 07-31-2017 | TRACK IND | ODDS 19:1+
=========================================================
(2016)     JOCKEY                  TRAINER               ODDS  DIST SURFACE    FS HORSE               
IND 706    CARDENAS, DICK          SCHULTZ, JOHN         22.6  6f   DIRT       12 IN A WHILE          
IND 707    TORRES, FRANCISCO       FLETCHER, KEVIN       21.9  6f   DIRT       7  RAISE YOUR L UP     
IND 712    RODRIGUEZ, MARIO        HARAN, JOHN           28    6f   DIRT       9  WEEKEND SPECIAL     
IND 712    GONCALVES, LEANDRO      KLOPP, RANDY          35.6  5.5f DIRT       9  RISE ABOVE IT       
IND 713    PRESCOTT, RODNEY        HAFFNER, RANDY        45.1  6f   DIRT       9  HOT SUSPECT         
IND 713    CARDENAS, DICK          CONTRERAS, CIPRIANO   19.4  5.5f DIRT       9  OPERATION STEVIE    
IND 715    PRESCOTT, RODNEY        MARTIN, DAWN          25.7  6f   DIRT       6  COCOA BANDITA       
IND 715    RODRIGUEZ, MARIO        FOSDICK, STEPHEN      24.1  8f   DIRT       8  C J'S GILDED CAT    
IND 719    RODRIGUEZ, MARIO        MCBRIDE, BARBARA      44.5  6f   DIRT       9  PAINTED CHIEF       
IND 719    RODRIGUEZ, MARIO        DAVIS, JOSEPH         21.5  6f   DIRT       10 RED SAILS FLYING    
IND 721    BRACHO, RICHARD         MORAN, SCOTT          83.4  7.5f TURF       10 LONE STAR RANGER    
IND 723    RIVERA, EZEQUIEL        COLEBROOK, BEN        25.9  5f   TURF       7  GUIDON              
IND 806    DE LA CRUZ, FERNANDO    MULLINS, SCOTT        20.7  11f  *TURF      8  WILD ABOUT YOU      
IND 812    PEREZ, EDUARDO          LAUER, MICHAEL        22.2  8f   *TURF      9  HOOSIER ZIP         
IND 817    PRESCOTT, RODNEY        MARTINEZ, RALPH       32.3  5f   DIRT       10 HIDENSEEK SALLY     
IND 819    GALLARDO, EDUARDO       STEARNS, JOHN         36    5.5f DIRT       8  MISS CARTELLE       
IND 827    ROMERO, RAMON           ALLEN, KATHRYN        34    6f   DIRT       9  LISA'S CAT NAP      
IND 830    GALLARDO, EDUARDO       GRANITZ, ANTHONY      38.8  8f   DIRT       8  HARD TO BE GOOD     
IND 830    PEREZ, EDUARDO          GRANITZ, ANTHONY      44.1  6f   DIRT       9  COLONY CROSSING     
IND 909    BRACHO, RICHARD         REIDY, TIM            39    8f   DIRT       7  NOTMUCHTOLOOKAT     
IND 914    RODRIGUEZ, MARIO        JACKSON, FRED         44.6  6f   DIRT       12 SAMMY'S A BREEZE    
IND 917    CONTRERAS, ALEJANDRO    HARAN, JOHN           21.3  8f   DIRT       7  WEEKEND SPECIAL     
IND 921    POMPELL, THOMAS         REECE, JOYCE          48.5  8f   DIRT       8  KITTY KAT LANE      
IND 927    BERMUDEZ, SAMUEL        FONTENOT, DAWN        28.4  8.5f DIRT       6  HOOSIER BOY         
IND 1001   RODRIGUEZ, MARIO        BROWN, RONALD         21.2  6f   DIRT       8  AMERICAN MOOSE      
IND 1001   MOJICA, ORLANDO         WISNER, TRACEY        19.3  6f   DIRT       9  ZOEY D              
IND 1005   CARDENAS, DICK          GONZALEZ, VICTOR      134.4 8f   DIRT       11 HAPPY CIRCLE        
IND 1007   CONTRERAS, ALEJANDRO    HARAN, JOHN           28.4  6f   DIRT       8  ARCHIE'S GIRL       
IND 1007   BERMUDEZ, SAMUEL        GREENHILL, JEFFREY    26.3  5f   TURF       9  MISS CATWOOD        
IND 1011   DE LA CRUZ, FERNANDO    LOPRESTI, CHARLES     40    8f   TURF       11 ARAMINTA            
IND 1012   PEDROZA, MARCELINO      WISMER, TROY          35.1  8f   DIRT       8  CHROMED OUT         
IND 1014   PUSAC, ALBERTO          PATRICK, R.           36.4  8.5f DIRT       9  PRINCESA STYLE      
IND 1018   POMPELL, THOMAS         DELONG, GARY          24.1  5.5f DIRT       7  MAXIMUM CHARGES     
IND 1019   PRESCOTT, RODNEY        HUGHES, BYRON         57.8  8.5f TURF       11 BECKNERVILLE        
IND 1021   ARAGON, ROLANDO         GLYSHAW, TIM          33    6f   DIRT       7  JIMNPAULS LAST TOY  
IND 1026   BERMUDEZ, SAMUEL        HOLDEN, JAY           58.4  8.5f TURF       12 ENGLISH FLOWER      
IND 1029   POMPELL, THOMAS         PANDOLI, BETHANY      37.6  8.5f DIRT       12 KNIGHT OF DREAMS    
(2017)
IND 425    PEDROZA, MARCELINO      LAUER, MICHAEL        34    8.5f DIRT       9  TALES OF WAR        
IND 502    POMPELL, THOMAS         DAVIS, JOSEPH         88.6  8f   DIRT       10 BAR RAG             
IND 505    CLAWSON, KATIE          HARAN, JOHN           21.5  8f   DIRT       7  TYOGA SIX           
IND 509    PATRICK, CHEYANNA       PATRICK, R.           71.1  8f   DIRT       9  SHOW THE WORLD      
IND 510    CONTRERAS, ALEJANDRO    HARAN, JOHN           21.7  6f   DIRT       8  PRESIDENT ELECT     
IND 510    POMPELL, THOMAS         FOSDICK, STEPHEN      79.8  6f   DIRT       9  ANOTHER STONE       
IND 516    RIQUELME, JOSE          HAMMOND, KIM          36.4  5.5f DIRT       7  JACKSON CHROME      
IND 520    PRESCOTT, RODNEY        HOLDEN, JAY           25.9  8f   TURF       8  SLICKLY DONE        
IND 520    CLAWSON, KATIE          ROBERTS, MERRILL      24.2  5.5f DIRT       7  CHECKTHESALT        
IND 531    MURRAY, E.              HAFFNER, RANDY        24.6  6f   DIRT       7  OH ARCHIE           
IND 606    ARAGON, ROLANDO         DURAN, ANTONIO        22.9  6f   DIRT       7  WESTERN BOY         
IND 616    POMPELL, THOMAS         FOSTER, ERIC          20.3  8f   DIRT       6  SKY BLUE MONGOLIA   
IND 620    PRESCOTT, RODNEY        RICHARDVILLE, TIANNA  36.2  8f   TURF       10 CAREER GIRL         
IND 627    GONCALVES, LEANDRO      CRISTEL, MARK         39.8  8f   DIRT       8  PURELY GIVEN        
IND 628    POMPELL, THOMAS         HARAN, JOHN           48.9  5f   TURF       8  DESERT IMAGE        
IND 706    MURRAY, E.              BROWN, RONALD         34.2  6f   DIRT       8  ELMA                
IND 707    FRANKLIN, MALCOLM       KLOPP, RANDY          27.3  5f   DIRT       6  ROCO DIAMOND MINE   
IND 707    RECHY, RAMON            RECHY, CHAZ           41.1  5f   TURF       6  GEEZE WALLY         
IND 720    COURT, JON              OLIVER, VICTORIA      51.3  8f   TURF       12 YOUNGEST DAUGHTER   
IND 725    FRANKLIN, MALCOLM       WISNER, TRACEY        19.5  8.5f TURF       10 HOOSIER CHROME      
IND 728    ROMAN, CONSTANTINO      PATRICK, R.           19.3  6f   DIRT       9  TUFFSTUFFJUSTICE    


JOCKEYS (W/ TRAINERS)
=====================

POMPELL, THOMAS : 7 
  FOSTER, ERIC: 1 
  HARAN, JOHN: 1 
  DAVIS, JOSEPH: 1 
  FOSDICK, STEPHEN: 1 
  REECE, JOYCE: 1 
  DELONG, GARY: 1 
  PANDOLI, BETHANY: 1 

PRESCOTT, RODNEY : 6 
  RICHARDVILLE, TIANNA: 1 
  HOLDEN, JAY: 1 
  HAFFNER, RANDY: 1 
  MARTIN, DAWN: 1 
  MARTINEZ, RALPH: 1 
  HUGHES, BYRON: 1 

RODRIGUEZ, MARIO : 6 
  HARAN, JOHN: 1 
  FOSDICK, STEPHEN: 1 
  MCBRIDE, BARBARA: 1 
  DAVIS, JOSEPH: 1 
  JACKSON, FRED: 1 
  BROWN, RONALD: 1 

CONTRERAS, ALEJANDRO : 3 
  HARAN, JOHN: 3 

CARDENAS, DICK : 3 
  SCHULTZ, JOHN: 1 
  CONTRERAS, CIPRIANO: 1 
  GONZALEZ, VICTOR: 1 

BERMUDEZ, SAMUEL : 3 
  FONTENOT, DAWN: 1 
  GREENHILL, JEFFREY: 1 
  HOLDEN, JAY: 1 

GONCALVES, LEANDRO : 2 
  CRISTEL, MARK: 1 
  KLOPP, RANDY: 1 

MURRAY, E. : 2 
  BROWN, RONALD: 1 
  HAFFNER, RANDY: 1 

FRANKLIN, MALCOLM : 2 
  KLOPP, RANDY: 1 
  WISNER, TRACEY: 1 

ARAGON, ROLANDO : 2 
  DURAN, ANTONIO: 1 
  GLYSHAW, TIM: 1 

PEDROZA, MARCELINO : 2 
  LAUER, MICHAEL: 1 
  WISMER, TROY: 1 

CLAWSON, KATIE : 2 
  HARAN, JOHN: 1 
  ROBERTS, MERRILL: 1 

BRACHO, RICHARD : 2 
  MORAN, SCOTT: 1 
  REIDY, TIM: 1 

DE LA CRUZ, FERNANDO : 2 
  MULLINS, SCOTT: 1 
  LOPRESTI, CHARLES: 1 

PEREZ, EDUARDO : 2 
  LAUER, MICHAEL: 1 
  GRANITZ, ANTHONY: 1 

GALLARDO, EDUARDO : 2 
  STEARNS, JOHN: 1 
  GRANITZ, ANTHONY: 1 

RECHY, RAMON : 1 
  RECHY, CHAZ: 1 

COURT, JON : 1 
  OLIVER, VICTORIA: 1 

ROMAN, CONSTANTINO : 1 
  PATRICK, R.: 1 

PATRICK, CHEYANNA : 1 
  PATRICK, R.: 1 

RIQUELME, JOSE : 1 
  HAMMOND, KIM: 1 

TORRES, FRANCISCO : 1 
  FLETCHER, KEVIN: 1 

RIVERA, EZEQUIEL : 1 
  COLEBROOK, BEN: 1 

ROMERO, RAMON : 1 
  ALLEN, KATHRYN: 1 

MOJICA, ORLANDO : 1 
  WISNER, TRACEY: 1 

PUSAC, ALBERTO : 1 
  PATRICK, R.: 1 


TRAINERS (W/JOCKEYS)
====================

HARAN, JOHN : 6 
  POMPELL, THOMAS: 1 
  CLAWSON, KATIE: 1 
  CONTRERAS, ALEJANDRO: 3 
  RODRIGUEZ, MARIO: 1 

PATRICK, R. : 3 
  ROMAN, CONSTANTINO: 1 
  PATRICK, CHEYANNA: 1 
  PUSAC, ALBERTO: 1 

GRANITZ, ANTHONY : 2 
  GALLARDO, EDUARDO: 1 
  PEREZ, EDUARDO: 1 

BROWN, RONALD : 2 
  MURRAY, E.: 1 
  RODRIGUEZ, MARIO: 1 

WISNER, TRACEY : 2 
  FRANKLIN, MALCOLM: 1 
  MOJICA, ORLANDO: 1 

LAUER, MICHAEL : 2 
  PEDROZA, MARCELINO: 1 
  PEREZ, EDUARDO: 1 

DAVIS, JOSEPH : 2 
  POMPELL, THOMAS: 1 
  RODRIGUEZ, MARIO: 1 

FOSDICK, STEPHEN : 2 
  POMPELL, THOMAS: 1 
  RODRIGUEZ, MARIO: 1 

KLOPP, RANDY : 2 
  FRANKLIN, MALCOLM: 1 
  GONCALVES, LEANDRO: 1 

HOLDEN, JAY : 2 
  PRESCOTT, RODNEY: 1 
  BERMUDEZ, SAMUEL: 1 

HAFFNER, RANDY : 2 
  MURRAY, E.: 1 
  PRESCOTT, RODNEY: 1 

DURAN, ANTONIO : 1 
  ARAGON, ROLANDO: 1 

FOSTER, ERIC : 1 
  POMPELL, THOMAS: 1 

RICHARDVILLE, TIANNA : 1 
  PRESCOTT, RODNEY: 1 

CRISTEL, MARK : 1 
  GONCALVES, LEANDRO: 1 

RECHY, CHAZ : 1 
  RECHY, RAMON: 1 

OLIVER, VICTORIA : 1 
  COURT, JON: 1 

HAMMOND, KIM : 1 
  RIQUELME, JOSE: 1 

ROBERTS, MERRILL : 1 
  CLAWSON, KATIE: 1 

SCHULTZ, JOHN : 1 
  CARDENAS, DICK: 1 

FLETCHER, KEVIN : 1 
  TORRES, FRANCISCO: 1 

CONTRERAS, CIPRIANO : 1 
  CARDENAS, DICK: 1 

MARTIN, DAWN : 1 
  PRESCOTT, RODNEY: 1 

MCBRIDE, BARBARA : 1 
  RODRIGUEZ, MARIO: 1 

MORAN, SCOTT : 1 
  BRACHO, RICHARD: 1 

COLEBROOK, BEN : 1 
  RIVERA, EZEQUIEL: 1 

MULLINS, SCOTT : 1 
  DE LA CRUZ, FERNANDO: 1 

MARTINEZ, RALPH : 1 
  PRESCOTT, RODNEY: 1 

STEARNS, JOHN : 1 
  GALLARDO, EDUARDO: 1 

ALLEN, KATHRYN : 1 
  ROMERO, RAMON: 1 

REIDY, TIM : 1 
  BRACHO, RICHARD: 1 

JACKSON, FRED : 1 
  RODRIGUEZ, MARIO: 1 

REECE, JOYCE : 1 
  POMPELL, THOMAS: 1 

FONTENOT, DAWN : 1 
  BERMUDEZ, SAMUEL: 1 

GONZALEZ, VICTOR : 1 
  CARDENAS, DICK: 1 

GREENHILL, JEFFREY : 1 
  BERMUDEZ, SAMUEL: 1 

LOPRESTI, CHARLES : 1 
  DE LA CRUZ, FERNANDO: 1 

WISMER, TROY : 1 
  PEDROZA, MARCELINO: 1 

DELONG, GARY : 1 
  POMPELL, THOMAS: 1 

HUGHES, BYRON : 1 
  PRESCOTT, RODNEY: 1 

GLYSHAW, TIM : 1 
  ARAGON, ROLANDO: 1 

PANDOLI, BETHANY : 1 
  POMPELL, THOMAS: 1 


RACE TYPE BREAKDOWN
===================
OPT : 5 / 140  4%
MSW : 17 / 203  8%
ALW : 8 / 165  5%
STK : 1 / 46  2%
MCL : 8 / 165  5%
CLM : 19 / 386  5%

 

[Prof_Factor]

Indiana 8-01-2017

Turf track hasn't seen rain since the 28th, I believe, so it should be Firm-er. It was listed Firm on the 29th, but that was a slower type Firm ... if you know what I mean. Contemplating a post about handicapping first time turfers and turf dynamics. So check back for that or post a reply if you would be interested.


race #1 - 6f
#7 7-5 QUICK GRADUATE
#3 7-2 CHASING SUNSETS
#4 9-2 SLICKTRICKJUSTICE

race #2 - 6f
#4 9-2 JACKSON CHROME
#8 12-1 EASY DOER - turnback speed
#1 6-1 SIGHTS AND SOUNDS

race #3 - 8.5f turf
... not many speed types for a turf race and this race is cheap. Longshots worth a gander are #2 (bug but horrid pedigree), #3 (lasix, turf lineage), #7 (plodder needs slow track).
#1 7-2 RIDING HIGH
#5 3-1 K L S FORTY THREE
#9 1-1 TO THE KING

race #4 - 4.5f
... 2yo MSW Indiana breds.
#1 6-5 I TWEET - logical
#8 9-2 CLASSY SCORE - good works
#4 30-1 PLEASANT SUNRISE - workouts better than debut so improve potential is high.

race #5 - 5f turf
... very wide open race. Can make a case for all.
#5 3-1 DOLL FACE
#4 7-2 BE A FACTOR
#3 8-1 NADIAES IMAGE

race #6 - 8f
#6 2-1 REHEARSED
#9 7-2 PROMISE OF SPRING
#4 5-1 STETSON GOLD

race #7 - 8f turf
#2 3-1 SULLY'S DREAM
#12 10-1 PAULINE REVERE
#7 4-1 CHA CHA MAGIC

race #8 - 5.5f
#3 8-5 I SEE LONDON
#4 15-1 MOUNTAIN BROOKE
#10 6-1 PASS AND GO


FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!

 

[Jack1999]

Yeah would be interested in your take on turf racing. Thx.

 

[Lt1]

Good luck Prof.:toast:

 

[Prof_Factor]

In general, we all know most turf tracks run faster times than your average dirt tracks. For all intents and purposes here, we will use typical Firm turf examples and average fast dirt courses.
We all know Track Variants tell us just how fast. The faster the track, the farther speed will carry (less stamina required).

From strictly a handicapper's perspective, what are we looking for in a first time turf horse??
First and foremost ... Natural Speed. The races will run faster on the turf so our horse must have the 'action' to run faster. If our horse does not have the action then he will get left behind with too much to overcome. I prefer using miles-per-hour to determine speed capabilities, but you can use fractions. Of course, the strength of the field will determine just how speedy our horse will need to be to compete. Generally, for the sake of throwing a number out there for reference, the horse will likely need to be able to run a sub 23 quarter.
FYI (for the curious),
to calculate MPH from ft/sec use
MPH = ( ft/sec ) * 0.6818182
if you don't use ft/sec then you can use
MPH = ( ( 660 * furlongs ) / seconds ) * 0.6818182

So, how much will the turf move a speedy horse up??
That will depend, but in our scenario anywhere from 10 to upwards of 20 speed figure points. 10 for sure.

Today, race 3 at Indiana (the first turf race on the card, see above) just completed and since we picked the trifecta cold, we'll use that race as an example. There were 4 dirt to turf horses in the 9 horse field.
You'll notice we needed to gauge (guess) the turf firmness (thus, speedy-ness) as per my opening statement.
My guess looks to be correct as that race ran 50 points over par. So about +50 track variant in play today. That is SPEEDY!
Let's re-handicap the 9 horses quickly with projections ...
I'd like to pause for a second to mention race 5 (the 2nd turf race on the card) is complete and we picked the $152 trifecta cold in that one as well and that the only dirt to turf runner in the field ran 3rd at 13-1 (right where we had him). ;-)
Now to continue ...
#1 (7-2) RIDING HIGH - last race on turf was horrible (no speed at all), race before on dirt was very good and showed speed, jock switch to DeLaCruz (trainer intent). Obviously I believed the last race was a toss because of jock error as did the trainer, since the horse was entered back on turf. Candy Ride sire encouraging. Projected fig 70++.
#2 (15-1) KID MANGO - dirt to turf .... no speed, gets bug, horrid pedigree, no speed works. Projection fig 60 max.
#3 (20-1) THEY CALL ME BRUCE - dirt to turf ... stopped badly in only race (dirt/sprint) after showing speed, turf bred top and bottom, gets lasix, longshot threat. Projection fig 60.
#5 (3-1) K L S FORTY THREE - dirt to turf ... closer style, no early speed, no workout speed. Projection fig (likely dirt equivalent) 75 max.
#6 (30-1) LEGAL TO RUN - easy throw out, ignore.
#7 (30-1) PAPPY ON THE ROCKS - plodder ran best race on turf but turf had a negative variant. Internal fractions reveal he has no turn of foot. Lack of pace hurts. Projection fig < 70.
#8 (20-1) LORD STANNIS - dirt to turf ... easy toss out, no speed in previous races, no speed in works, dirt figs too low.
#9 (1-1) TO THE KING - heavy favorite shows best turf fig in the field, no natural speed so turf fig similar to dirt fig, we'll use that for projection. Projection fig 71.
#10(30-1) HANDFUL OF CRYSTAL - easy throw out, ignore.


result was 1-5-9-7.

Feel free to post any comments or questions. Hope you enjoyed this and hope it helps.

This just in .... our 3rd and final turf race at Indiana is complete. We FAILED to get the trifecta cold!! But, we did get the exacta cold.
So we managed to pick the winner (err, and exacta) in each turf race.
Oh ..., shut the yell up Prof. We got it!

 

[Jack1999]

Good info. And nice calls on the the 3 turf races today at Indiana.

 

[Lt1]

Nice work Prof. I model each distance and surface for the tracks I play. I have found that most turf races are won by off the pace horses with good 3rd fractions. This is based solely on my capping. There are times when the lack of rain causes the turf to become cement thus allowing early paced horse to win.Belmont is one track that sees this shift usually in July during hot humid weather. By keeping my models I'm alerted to when there is a shift in what running styles are winning. Since this is the first yr that I've played Sar on a daily basis I've noted that both turf courses are playing fairly evenly with the exception of 8.5 on the Mellon and 11f on the inner where late runners have the advantage.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Thanks for the post, Lt.
I don't want to confuse anybody, so I want to clarify, when I'm talking about speed, and I'm not talking about running style (or front runners). I can see how these two things seem the same. Turf tracks in general tend to favor off-the-pace runners. But for a horse to be a turf runner it must possess natural speed regardless of his turf running style. Example, some dirt pressers with speed will become turf stalkers.
But, yes, everything you said is true about style tendencies and track conditions.
I was trying to shed light on identifying turf runners from dirt lines.

 

[Lt1]

You did an excellent job with that. My computer program allows me too see the amount of energy a horse will expend to the 2nd call and what it has left for the 3rd fraction. This serves me well when using a dirt horse in a turf race since I know the acceptable range to win at that dist and surface. Nothing works 100% of the time but this close enough for me.