Follow or fade me on this play at your own peril. @)
Sometimes you have to dig deep to find a hidden gem in an obscure game.
In a battle of two teams of the Summit League, the North Dakota State Bison takes on Western Illinois at the Leathernecks home court at the LeRoy A. Ufkes Court at Western Hall in Macomb, Illinois.
The North Dakota Bison are 13-7 overall and 3-3 in conference play (3rd place). In their last game on Thursday 21st, they barely lost on the road to league leader IPFW Mastodons by the score of 79-74. The Leathernecks of Western Illinois are 7-10 overall and 0-6 in conference play (8th last place). In their last game Wednesday 20th, they lost on the road to Summit League 6th place holder South Dakota Coyotes by the score of 76-67.
According to the most current up to date (Friday 22nd) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, North Dakota State is ranked #152 and Western Illinois is #224.
North Dakota State's's offense is ranked #202, while their defense is ranked #103.
Western Illinois' offense is ranked #208, while their defense is ranked #244.
It's a "ho hum" game between two mediocre teams, but the SUPER STRONG technical trends support taking the UNDER 136 here.
ATS Trends
North Dakota State Bison is:
6-4 UNDER in their last 10 games
3-2 UNDER in their last 5 road games
Western Illinois Leathernecks are:
6-3-1 UNDER in their last 10 games
4-1 UNDER in their last 5 home games
7-1 UNDER in their home games YTD
While these general technical trends may not overwhelming to support the UNDER in this game, one should look to the head to head match-up history between these two teams.
The UNDER is 8-2 in this series! 80%!
Sometimes you just have to follow the numbers. As stated above, North Dakota State has gone UNDER in 3 out of their last 5 road games. Western Illinois
has had 4 of their last 5 games at home go UNDER. Combined, that's 7 out of 10 games going UNDER in this situation. 70%!
The trends say taking UNDER 136 in this game is the right play here.
IMO, this will be an lower scoring game between two mediocre teams.
I forecast the total of this game will be at 128 or below when the final horn blows.
Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
