Follow or fade me on this play at your own peril. @)
In a battle of the two cellar-dwelling teams of the Horizon League, Illinois-Chicago takes on Cleveland State at the Vikings home court at the Henry J. Goodman Arena in the Wolstein Center.
The Flames of UIC are 2-14 and riding a 6 game losing streak. They're 0-5 in conference play. They got obliterated this past Saturday 16th night losing to the Milwaukee Panthers by a score of 87-62. The Vikings of Cleveland State hasn't fared much better. They are 6-13 overall and 1-5 in conference play. Their lone conference win came this past Saturday 16th night on the road against Northern Kentucky by the score of 70-65.
The UIC Flames have been outscored by a total of 103 points over their last 6 games. One of the big problems for UIC is they can't shoot the ball. They're shooting a pathetic 38% from the field. They also struggle for the 3 point line shooting 31% and the free throw (FT) line, shooting 63%.
As mentioned above, the Cleveland State Vikings got a much-needed win over win over Northern Kentucky on Saturday 16th, winning 70-65. The team made 9 of 16 three pointers which greatly contributed to the win. It was a rare good shooting game by Cleveland State, who, like UIC, are a poor shooting team. They are at 41% from the field and only 30% from 3 point land.
According to the most current up to date (Sunday 17th) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, UIC is ranked #340 and Cleveland State is #266.
UIC's offense is ranked #342, while their defense is ranked #285.
Cleveland State's offense is ranked #288, while their defense is ranked #214.
I wrote about both team's shooting woes and I firmly believe this will be a really low scoring game.
It's an ugly game between two really shitty teams, and the technical trends support taking the UNDER here.
ATS Trends
UIC Flames are:
4-0 UNDER in their last 4 games following an ATS loss
11-1 UNDER in their last 12 road games
8-1 UNDER in their last 9 games vs. Horizon League teams
18-4 UNDER in their last 22 games overall
Cleveland State Vikings are:
17-5 UNDER in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
21-8 UNDER in their last 29 home games
Sometimes you just have to follow the numbers. As stated above, UIC has gone UNDER 11 out of 12 of their last 12 road games. Cleveland State
has had 21 of their last 29 games at home go UNDER. Combined, that's 32 out of 42 games going UNDER in this situation.
The trends say taking the UNDER 132 is the right play here.
IMO, this will be an ugly low scoring game between two really piss poor pathetic shooting teams.
Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
