Follow or fade me on this totals play at your own peril. @)
I believe the Wright State Raiders and Oakland Golden Grizzlies will go OVER 155 total points scored.
The game is being played at the Grizzlies home court (Athletics Center O'rena) in Rochester, Michigan.
Both of these teams are members of the Horizon League.
Wright State is 13-8 overall and 7-1 in conference play (2nd place). They are 2-6 SU this year on the road.
Oakland is also 13-8 overall and 5-3 in conference play (tied for 3rd place with Milwaukee Panthers and Green Bay Phoenix). They are 5-3 SU this year at home.
The Wright State Raiders will travel to Michigan on Friday evening for a tough Horizon League battle against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies. After a finishing the non-conference season with a below-.500 record, Wright State has stormed out to an impressive 7-1 conference record to take a share of the league-lead heading into the weekend. The Raiders earned arguably their biggest victory of the season last weekend, defeating Valparaiso at home by the score of 73-62. Billy Donlon’s squad is fresh off of a convincing 14 point win over UIC in their last conference matchup. Mark Alstork scored a team-high 19 points to lead four Raiders’ players in double-figures to help Wright State maintain a share of the conference lead.
According to the most current up to date (Thursday 28th) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, Wright State is ranked #130 and Oakland #120.
Wright State's offense is ranked #233, while their defense is ranked #51.
Oakland's offense is ranked #29, while their defense is ranked #285.
If we go solely by the above KENPOM rankings, both these teams will keep the point total UNDER 155. Right?
Raiders Riding 6-Game Win Streak
The Wright State Raiders come in at #130 in Ken Pomeroy’s College Basketball Rankings after winning their sixth consecutive game over the UIC Flames at the beginning of the week. The Raiders are limiting opponents to just 96.6 points per 100 possessions (50th in the NCAA) on just 41.4% from the field (96th in the NCAA) and 30.9% from three-point range (36th in the NCAA). Wright State struggles on the offensive end, but ranks among the top three-point shooting teams in the country, shooting 37.0% as a team from beyond the arc. Billy Donlon’s squad owns an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 99.8 points per 100 possessions (233rd in the NCAA) on the season.
Oakland Wins 2nd Straight
The Oakland Golden Grizzlies won their second straight game, defeating the Milwaukee Panthers on the road on Wednesday night. Golden Grizzlies’ guard Max Hooper hit seven three-pointers en route to 21 points to lead Oakland in scoring, while Kahlil Felder posted 17 points and 12 assists in the 82-79 win. Hooper, who ranks 5th in the NCAA at 3.6 makes per game from beyond the arc, has yet to make a two-point field goal on the year. Oakland comes in sporting an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 113.3 points per 100 possessions (30th in the NCAA) on the season.
ATS Trends
The Wright State Raiders are:
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs. Horizon League.
- Over is 8-2 in last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 17-8 in last 25 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
The total has gone OVER the posted total 4 out of the last 5 games. That's 80% ATS!
The Golden Grizzlies rank in the top-50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, but don’t play much defense.
Oakland is allowing opponents to score at a rate of 108.6 points per 100 possessions on the season (285th in the NCAA).
While Wright State can struggle to score at times, they are shooting 37% from three-point range as a team! This could be the great equalizer on Friday night.
I feel this will be a shootout and the total points scored between these two teams will be 160+ when the final horn sounds!
OVER 155 is the play!
Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
$$
