Follow or fade me on this play at your own peril. @)
THIS IS TRULY AN UGLY "DON'T MAKE SENSE" PICK, BUT HEAR ME OUT!
I believe the San Jose Spartans will cover the +12.5 over Colorado State at the Rams home court (Moby Arena) in Fort Collins, Colorado. These teams are both members of
the Mountain West Conference (MWC).
San Jose State is 6-14 overall and 1-7 in conference play (last place or 11th place). They are 1-8 SU this year on the road.
Colorado State is 11-8 overall and 3-3 in conference play (6th place). They are 7-4 SU this year at home.
The San Jose State Spartans have lost seven of their last eight games. San Jose State is averaging 68.5 points per game and they are shooting 41.6 percent fro the floor while defensively they are allowing 76.9 points and their opponents are shooting 44.7 percent. Frank Rogers leads the Spartans averaging 12.9 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. Ryan Welage is averaging 12.7 points and 6.2 rebounds, Princeton Onwas is averaging 10.9 points, and Gary Williams Jr. is averaging 7.8 points.
The Colorado State Rams are coming off of a win that ended a two game losing skid. Colorado State is averaging 81.2 points per game and they are shooting 43.4 percent from the floor while defensively they are allowing 79.9 points and their opponents are shooting 45.5 percent. Gian Clavell leads the Rams averaging 20.8 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Antwan Scott is averaging 15.7 points, John Gillon is averaging 12.3 points, and Emmanuel Omogbo is averaging 10.9 points and 7.2 rebounds.
According to the most current up to date (Tuesday 26th January) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, San Jose State is ranked #300 and Colorado State is #181.
San Jose State's offense is ranked #302, while their defense is ranked #269.
Colorado State's offense is ranked #52, while their defense is ranked #319.
According to these teams' overall records/conference standings and KENPOM rankings, the Rams should administer a bully beat-down on the Spartans, right?
ATS Trends
San Jose Spartans are:
9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games
4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss
5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Mountain West
Colorado State Rams are:
2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games
1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
16-36-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a SU win
2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400
Yes, these are indeed compelling technical trends favoring San Jose State! We should be cognizant that San Jose State always seems to be
within the number when they play Colorado State.
Look at the head to head history from a ATS perspective.
San Jose State has covered ATS 4 of the 5 times over Colorado State. 80%!
This is purely a technical play. It's quite possible Colorado State will have a 20 point lead at the 5 minute mark,
and San Jose State will get the proverbial BACK DOOR for the cover!
I'm not saying San Jose State will win (not a snowball's chance in hell), but I really believe they can hang within 12.5 points.
Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
