Aaron Rodgers has recaptured the imagination of the football world with an eight-game run for the ages. After predicting that his Green Bay Packers could "run the table" following a 4-6 start, Rodgers has elevated his game to heights rarely seen in NFL history. He has produced gasp-inducing throws and eye-popping pocket presence to lead his team to the NFC Championship Game.
With that said, can I share a little secret?
There is another NFL quarterback who has matched Rodgers throw for throw, from a statistical perspective, over that same span. In some regards, the Atlanta Falcons' Matt Ryan -- the presumptive league MVP and Green Bay's opponent Sunday -- might actually have performed better than Rodgers.
Let's take a closer look at the numbers, derived with help from research by ESPN Stats & Information senior statistics analyst Jacob Nitzberg, since the Packers' winning streak began in Week 12.
First, the basics.
Ryan has the better Total QBR, the most complete measure of quarterback play we have; it ranks No. 1 in the NFL since Week 12.
Rodgers created national headlines by throwing 318 consecutive passes without an interception -- before the Dallas Cowboys safety Jeff Heath picked off the Packers QB in last weekend's divisional-round meeting. But Ryan hasn't been much worse over that same span, with two interceptions (albeit in one less game). Their ratios rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the league, respectively.
It's worth noting, moreover, that Ryan has been on the field for 97 action plays without receiver Julio Jones (toe) on the field. Rodgers lost his top receiver, Jordy Nelson, to a rib injury midway through a wild-card victory over the New York Giants. But until that point, Nelson had missed only three action plays since the start of Week 12.
Here's how Rodgers and Ryan have performed on plays with Nelson and Jones, respectively, on the sidelines.
It's also worth looking at how Ryan has performed on third downs, which in sum could be considered the most important plays of any game. Ryan's Total QBR has been nearly perfect on such plays, significantly higher than Rodgers and more than double the NFL average.
Ryan has completed more than 80 percent of his passes on third down, by far the highest mark in the NFL. Rodgers ranks second at 70.6 percent.
The Packers (54.4 percent) have converted a slightly higher percentage of third downs on passing plays than the Falcons (53.6). But on an individual level, it's pretty amazing to realize that Ryan completes four out of every five third-down passes.
Accuracy, of course, can be a tricky attribute to measure. Completions depend not just on ball placement from the quarterback, but on his protection as well as the skills of the receiver and defender.
ESPN Stats & Information reviews every throw to evaluate the quarterback's delivery. It doesn't take into account a receiver's route-running error, but it does use the same standard (passes that appear either over- or under-thrown) for all quarterbacks. Since the start of Week 12, Rodgers has thrown a higher percentage of off-target passes than Ryan.
One explanation for that difference: Rodgers has thrown a far higher total of downfield passes, which naturally will be completed at a lower percentage. He has attempted an NFL-high 80 passes that traveled at least 15 yards in the air since the start of Week 12. Ryan has thrown 39.
Ryan has completed a higher percentage of passes that traveled between 15 and 29 yards downfield, albeit on a lower number of attempts, but Rodgers has been much better on throws longer than that.
To be clear, this exercise isn't to relegate Rodgers' performance, nor is it to exaggerate Ryan's. It's to note and document that, over the past two months, we've seen not one historic quarterback performance -- we've seen two.
With that said, can I share a little secret?
There is another NFL quarterback who has matched Rodgers throw for throw, from a statistical perspective, over that same span. In some regards, the Atlanta Falcons' Matt Ryan -- the presumptive league MVP and Green Bay's opponent Sunday -- might actually have performed better than Rodgers.
Let's take a closer look at the numbers, derived with help from research by ESPN Stats & Information senior statistics analyst Jacob Nitzberg, since the Packers' winning streak began in Week 12.
First, the basics.
Overall Stats, Since Week 12
Rodgers created national headlines by throwing 318 consecutive passes without an interception -- before the Dallas Cowboys safety Jeff Heath picked off the Packers QB in last weekend's divisional-round meeting. But Ryan hasn't been much worse over that same span, with two interceptions (albeit in one less game). Their ratios rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the league, respectively.
It's worth noting, moreover, that Ryan has been on the field for 97 action plays without receiver Julio Jones (toe) on the field. Rodgers lost his top receiver, Jordy Nelson, to a rib injury midway through a wild-card victory over the New York Giants. But until that point, Nelson had missed only three action plays since the start of Week 12.
Here's how Rodgers and Ryan have performed on plays with Nelson and Jones, respectively, on the sidelines.
Stats without top targets on the field, since Week 12
Ryan has completed more than 80 percent of his passes on third down, by far the highest mark in the NFL. Rodgers ranks second at 70.6 percent.
The Packers (54.4 percent) have converted a slightly higher percentage of third downs on passing plays than the Falcons (53.6). But on an individual level, it's pretty amazing to realize that Ryan completes four out of every five third-down passes.
Third down, since Week 12
ESPN Stats & Information reviews every throw to evaluate the quarterback's delivery. It doesn't take into account a receiver's route-running error, but it does use the same standard (passes that appear either over- or under-thrown) for all quarterbacks. Since the start of Week 12, Rodgers has thrown a higher percentage of off-target passes than Ryan.
Off-target percentage, Since Week 12
Ryan has completed a higher percentage of passes that traveled between 15 and 29 yards downfield, albeit on a lower number of attempts, but Rodgers has been much better on throws longer than that.
Completion percentage on downfield throws, since Week 12
