In Theory Would This Succeed?

[quantumleap]

i know what you're saying, but some people don't know how to use statistical analysis...

for instance, you could look at nfl teams who avg more rush yds than opponents and think it might give you an edge, but after research and due dilligence, let's say you find it only beats the spread 52%... but maybe someone w/ a better eye for stat anal will take those teams that outrush and outperform in ypc, or outrush by a certain amt, or outrush and outdefend, etc... and find a model where teams that fit this criteria hit 62%!!!

I think a problem a lot of people have with statistical analysis is that they only factor in one team at a time. There are two teams playing and the other team can skew the strengths of the team being analyzed.

For example, if you take the ypc stat and don't factor in the opponent who may have an excellent run defense your stats are going to fall short.

 

[OmegaGMequation]

i know what you're saying, but some people don't know how to use statistical analysis...

for instance, you could look at nfl teams who avg more rush yds than opponents and think it might give you an edge, but after research and due dilligence, let's say you find it only beats the spread 52%... but maybe someone w/ a better eye for stat anal will take those teams that outrush and outperform in ypc, or outrush by a certain amt, or outrush and outdefend, etc... and find a model where teams that fit this criteria hit 62%!!!

so yes the stats are there for all of us, but not everyone knows exactly how to use these resources...

or maybe in the first instance that only hit 52%, if they applied that to dogs it moves up to 59%, or dogs of more than 3 pts 64%!!! so here you would have stat anal AND line analysis...

just curious what criteria you were basing your model on... i have some models that i plan to use in the bowls as well

good luck

:toast:

My model is strictly pointspread based. Tonight in NCAAB I am following the model's pick of the underdog ARKANSAS +8 vs. Texas. Other than that I gotta see what populations I have already in the NBA for immediate forcasting use.

 

[trentmoney]

My model is strictly pointspread based. Tonight in NCAAB I am following the model's pick of the underdog ARKANSAS +8 vs. Texas. Other than that I gotta see what populations I have already in the NBA for immediate forcasting use.

cool... i mostly use a combo of both, but usually lean towards the stat analysis

ever love a team but get scared off bc of the pointspread and they end up blowing them out any..?? or you're persuaded to take a team that you don't love but they're getting tons of points and then they shit the bed anyway...?? that's why i usually lean towards stat analysis...

hit tcu for 2* last night... you can check out my plays in my bowl thread for cfb

good luck

:toast:

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Cant believe I did it but it happens. Left out a game in the SEC/BIG 12 population and after auditing ATS of past games this season find a mistake that would have killed me. It is TEXAS -8 2night.

 

[OmegaGMequation]

:howdy:

 

[trentmoney]

have you been playing bowls?

 

[OmegaGMequation]

I havent been playing the bowl games. Been testing to see if this exp. model fits but doesnt seem to fit. Model seems to fit pros more than college games. I also think the bowl games are not taken seriously by coaches and the kids. Look at last night. New Mex. FUMBLES on the 1 yard line? Come on!! Thats BULLSHIT!!. Next Friday, I plan On betting a Bowl game on one of my favorite no nonsense coaches. I will not post who I am playing on till about 1/2 hour before the game. I do believe this coach has "Bowl Win Incentives" hammered out in his contract. Till then we'll have to see.

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Back To Basics

saw your nba picks last night... nice job!! interested in what your model values... line or stats??

if you keep hitting like last night hoops you should have no problem finding investors... how much principal are you forecasting that you will need??

Untill I can see at least 70% WIN RESULTS. I can not forecast any principal at this time. This model is still in it's exploratory stage. Seems I have side tracked myself by testing a different calulation for this model and I really got off a "good start path" I began with the original calculation. Lets see if i'm back on track with these back to basics picks that I plan to put a little money on today.....


LAKERS +1
NETS -1
MEMPHIS -1

Waiting To See Tonight

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Untill I can see at least 70% WIN RESULTS. I can not forecast any principal at this time. This model is still in it's exploratory stage. Seems I have side tracked myself by testing a different calulation for this model and I really got off a "good start path" I began with the original calculation. Lets see if i'm back on track with these back to basics picks that I plan to put a little money on today.....


LAKERS +1
NETS -1
MEMPHIS -1

Waiting To See Tonight

After closer analysis the official picks are

Lakers +1
Houston +1
Milwaukee +1
Toronto -1

:smoking: :smoking: :smoking: :smoking:

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Hit my first 4 team parlay of my life. Add the three team parlay not to long ago in the NBA and I may be on my way. I dont really like basketball. I work the model and see what happens. Thats how betting on sports should be. Like a stock analyst who searches for that edge whether it be through contacts or true financial analysis through some type of quantative tools to pick winning price movements. Thats what I am attempting to do here with sports. Develop a quantative analytical tool for high percentage profits.

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Official pick for tonight: Dallas -3.5

 

[trentmoney]

i like your thinking...
i personally think that betting hoops is the hardest sport... nfl is hard bc you bet the big games eg mnf and since it's only once a week we bet a bunch of games instead of one or two...

with hops you should probably just place your bets and check the paper in the morning like your stocks...

good luck

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Louisville -10 today in the Orange Bowl

ORLANDO -4.5 NBA

:toast: :toast:

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Louisville -10 today in the Orange Bowl

ORLANDO -4.5 NBA

:toast: :toast:

Again, I rushed posting the first NBA pick. The official NBA picks are: CLIPPERS +4.5
PHOENIX -5
SACRAMENTO -8.5

THE ORANGE BOWL PICK REMAINS THE SAME. :modemman:

 

[trentmoney]

on the other side in the OB...
based on my model that's over 60% last 6 yrs and 13-10 this bowl season....
at least one of us will win-
good luck

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Louisville -10 today in the Orange Bowl

ORLANDO -4.5 NBA

:toast: :toast:

sHOULD of never changed this pickuppy: uppy:

 

[OmegaGMequation]

:howdy: :howdy:

 

[trentmoney]

had lsu on a 65% model last night

 

[OmegaGMequation]

had lsu on a 65% model last night

Thats great trent. I picked ND as my personal play and not according to the model which I hadnt even set up for that game.hno: No biggy. Didnt bet that game. Today I put my money where my model predicts. I believe I have found the filter I needed to accurately recognize the most advantagous game or games on the betting board. It's in the NBA tonight and if you want I can email you the pick I am going to throw $275 on. I am anxious today but confident that all this research is gonna pay off. Confident mainly because I have a true mathimatical model here

email: seerusmaximu@yahoo.com later:toast:

 

[OmegaGMequation]

gonna post the picks according to the model that has been 100% for the NFL CONF CHAMP GAMES tomorrow. Jumping on MEMPHIS +7.5 TODAY at 3:30 in the NBA