First off General....you have to separate the good from the bad. Find the guys that are consistent winners each year, not just one big year and then nothing. There's more from there, but not sure if this is the place to discuss it since many criticize the idea......
criticism is for the weak most often. Let's talk. I have always been one to make my own plays, take a hint from another, and I have tracked cappers, but never looked into the service plays listed. I can see an idea of tracking them, but you have to get all of them(all of their plays) to do so. We do not see them daily I do not think. Or do we?
General.....If you look Wayyyy....back in some of my threads, you will see that I was once a critic of service plays. My motto was "If you have to pay for service plays, then you obviously shouldn't be wagering on sports". But......since then, my opinion has changed. Im a pro guy.....NFL & NBA. Ive followed these since I was a kid around 7~8 years old. The college game was never something I was interested in. Little did I know that later on this would haunt me in my gambling days....lol....Anyhow, I still don't have much interest in college sports to this day. I simply like seeing the best of the best. The talent gap is unreal and much, much more than many realize. Think how many colleges there are, and then think how many pro NFL and NBA players "stick" in those leagues. Anyhow, I soon realized that many people, of course, DO follow college sports, and obviously many of those are "services". They know and spend much more time on these teams than I do, no comparison. Now, Ive only been doing the "service" thing for around 8 months, and it was by accident I stumbled upon an individual online that taught me much about them. He's been associated with sports services for years and years, and he pointed out some that were good, some that were bad, and various other things. To make a long story short, I've learned some of the better cappers/services. Guys that win year in & year out, not guys that win one year and stink it up thereafter. Ive since had much success in the college game while doing this. Ive seen many guys bring up the fact that it's not usually good when you see all or many services on one side. Well, that's not necessarily true, and is definitely not the case if you see guys like, just for example, Joe Gavazzi, The Manager, Mo Money, Steve Turner, Joey Dimes, Alatex Superplay, to name a few, on the same side, especially if it's their top play. There are a couple other guys that know me and are familiar with what Im talking about here, and can vouch for what I've said here, but I wont call them out, just if they see this they may want to add their comments....
Something else I use often is a system of my own, not intellectual at all and in the 4th year of tracking. Now I can see that there are definitely services to look for so I understand your thinking. It must take some time to reveal to yourself which are good and which are bad and that leads to tracking history. I applaud systems and using trends. Mostly fades for me. Either way, the new guy can't just look at service threads on a Saturday morning and expect to reach and grab 5 plays and win?
No, your right, a new or average guy cant just visit a service thread/site and choose which plays to go with. It does take some time to learn which are the better ones, of course. But, there are others that already know from experience which are the better ones, and that helps if you are able to ask. The one guy originally told me to take 10 or more well known services and track them for a while and then you know for youself. That works fine of course, but so much time and effort is involved in it. As I said, I learned from others also....just takes some time. Many people besides yourself believe in "Fading" General, but I just can't buy into that philosophy. Lets say a guy knows not one thing about sports, and we track his plays. Does this mean you should fade his plays if they are losing for a while? You have to keep in mind that even though this guy knows not a thing about sports, he could still easily hit 50% since it would merely be like flipping a coin for heads or tails. I just cant agree with fading someone just because they are losing or losing at the time. Now a good capper year in and year out obviously has the feel, knowledge, and simply the knack for making the right decisions regarding selecting sides of a game, therefore , once again, in my opinion, cancelling out the "fade" factor again if he seems to lose a few.......
Thanks for the opinion Hache. I appreciate it. As for fading, I try and find the point inwhich the odds disclose themselves to me with a big edge. There are many systems/strategies out there and I suppose alot of these services that are successful use such.
BTW, I like Minnesota under 196
Good luck
BTW, I like Minnesota under 196
Good luck
Now going with a fade at a point where the odds are in your favor is a different matter I think General. I wouldnt necessarily call that fading though. I suppose you could look at the term fading in different ways. Now, if your winning with these systems of yours.....help us out!!
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> You have to keep in mind that even though this guy knows not a thing about sports, he could still easily hit 50% since it would merely be like flipping a coin for heads or tails. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I don't agree with this statement. It's quite obvious that knowing "something" about a game can lead you astray and cause you to bet into the WRONG side. Flippng a coin will give you 50% winners, but a square mentality can give you much worse...That is why some people can have long-term winning % under 50%. Some might call them "trap" lines (although I don't really believe in that), but the fact is that your total square will hit much less than 50%. Ppeter proved this to many of us...
I don't agree with this statement. It's quite obvious that knowing "something" about a game can lead you astray and cause you to bet into the WRONG side. Flippng a coin will give you 50% winners, but a square mentality can give you much worse...That is why some people can have long-term winning % under 50%. Some might call them "trap" lines (although I don't really believe in that), but the fact is that your total square will hit much less than 50%. Ppeter proved this to many of us...
Thanks for you opinion drunkguy, but I still stand by my opinion also. For example, some of our friends had a brother with a mental problem. Almost all of one football season they had him pick football games, and he came out ahead at end of year. Who's to say he couldnt luckily do this 2~3 years in a row? It could easily be done since, once again, it's like a flip of the coin. Another guy recently (this past football season) had his 10 year old son picking winners for weeks! A square could very easily have 2 or 3 consecutive winning years.
interesting post, usually service play discussion stays in basement like our crazy grandma who no one likes to talk about.
you can definitely win with them if you leave your ego at the door, do some research, and be absolutely committed to your plan.
in a nutshell, i use 3 handicappers for each sport with proven long term records. i play every game they release for the same amount and if the handicappers disagree, i pass the game.
last year i had about 2000 plays and hit 53.8% overall which would be a bit higher but generally im on the underdog in nhl and mlb. every bet was for 1% of my bankroll and only rises after a 25% increase in bankroll.
you need a reliable source for your plays and cant rely on forums to get you the information because it is too inconsistent.
in terms of cost, it is my opinion that you cant spend more than 1 wager per month to get access to the plays you want. for instance a hundred dollar player cant spend 200 a month because it is costing you 24 games a year which is a huge percentage of the 100 net games per year you should expect from the handicappers you are following.
it is an everyday grind where results should be judged monthly or quarterly, not daily and weekly because while things can be ugly for awhile they always seem to turn around just when the novice is out of money
there is alot of smaller variables that i use but that is the general idea.
just a note on the above posts, the person who knows nothing about sports should have a higher win percentage than someone who knows a little because there is no emotion involved for the former which is a sportsbettor's worst nightmare.
lastly you cant decide which games to play and which to pass because you are in affect handicapping the handicapper which creates "emotion" and decision making which is better left to the capper you have chosen to follow as he has the proven track record which is why we selected him in the first place.
example tonight is florida vs georgia, i have a play on florida and i absolutely hate the pick but i didnt complain when i went 2-0 yesterday with picks i thought were mediocre at best so i have to live with the results tonite. (i just jinxed myself i think, georgia rolls LOL)
one more thing, the worst thing someone can do when reading the consensus reports is following the "hot hand". it is called chasing and it doesnt work. i had to eliminate 2 cappers this year from college basketball at the half way point because they were having the best year imaginable. i feel sorry for the people who started following them at that point because they were "hot" because they wont even hit 50% the rest of the way in my opinion because 71% is not sustainable for an entire year in hoops by any stretch
ok i have to go watch "24" as it has just started, talk to you later
you can definitely win with them if you leave your ego at the door, do some research, and be absolutely committed to your plan.
in a nutshell, i use 3 handicappers for each sport with proven long term records. i play every game they release for the same amount and if the handicappers disagree, i pass the game.
last year i had about 2000 plays and hit 53.8% overall which would be a bit higher but generally im on the underdog in nhl and mlb. every bet was for 1% of my bankroll and only rises after a 25% increase in bankroll.
you need a reliable source for your plays and cant rely on forums to get you the information because it is too inconsistent.
in terms of cost, it is my opinion that you cant spend more than 1 wager per month to get access to the plays you want. for instance a hundred dollar player cant spend 200 a month because it is costing you 24 games a year which is a huge percentage of the 100 net games per year you should expect from the handicappers you are following.
it is an everyday grind where results should be judged monthly or quarterly, not daily and weekly because while things can be ugly for awhile they always seem to turn around just when the novice is out of money
there is alot of smaller variables that i use but that is the general idea.
just a note on the above posts, the person who knows nothing about sports should have a higher win percentage than someone who knows a little because there is no emotion involved for the former which is a sportsbettor's worst nightmare.
lastly you cant decide which games to play and which to pass because you are in affect handicapping the handicapper which creates "emotion" and decision making which is better left to the capper you have chosen to follow as he has the proven track record which is why we selected him in the first place.
example tonight is florida vs georgia, i have a play on florida and i absolutely hate the pick but i didnt complain when i went 2-0 yesterday with picks i thought were mediocre at best so i have to live with the results tonite. (i just jinxed myself i think, georgia rolls LOL)
one more thing, the worst thing someone can do when reading the consensus reports is following the "hot hand". it is called chasing and it doesnt work. i had to eliminate 2 cappers this year from college basketball at the half way point because they were having the best year imaginable. i feel sorry for the people who started following them at that point because they were "hot" because they wont even hit 50% the rest of the way in my opinion because 71% is not sustainable for an entire year in hoops by any stretch
ok i have to go watch "24" as it has just started, talk to you later
AS I GOT LITTLE BETTER,I HAD BEEN BASHED
LESS AND LESS; THERE IS NOT A LOT OF PRIDE
IN WHAT I DO, AS A MATTER OF FACT, I JUST DO
IT WITHOUT MUCH THINKING ANY MORE...
MY POINT IS ,EVEN AT ONE TIME THINKING
OF GOING FULL TIME TOUT , I REALISED THAT
ONE,I WOULD NOT VENTURE OUT OF MY KEN AND
SPECIALISE AND TWO , FOR THOSE WHO SPECIALISE,
IT IS IMPORTANT TO FLOW WITH THEIR TIDE WHEN
THEY ARE HOT. MAYBE THAT IS THE ESSENCE OF
FOLLOWING A SERVICE,PARTICULARLY IN COLLEGE
SPORTS... MY TWO CENTS...
LESS AND LESS; THERE IS NOT A LOT OF PRIDE
IN WHAT I DO, AS A MATTER OF FACT, I JUST DO
IT WITHOUT MUCH THINKING ANY MORE...
MY POINT IS ,EVEN AT ONE TIME THINKING
OF GOING FULL TIME TOUT , I REALISED THAT
ONE,I WOULD NOT VENTURE OUT OF MY KEN AND
SPECIALISE AND TWO , FOR THOSE WHO SPECIALISE,
IT IS IMPORTANT TO FLOW WITH THEIR TIDE WHEN
THEY ARE HOT. MAYBE THAT IS THE ESSENCE OF
FOLLOWING A SERVICE,PARTICULARLY IN COLLEGE
SPORTS... MY TWO CENTS...
Hache,
According to your theory, any line that a sharp player feels is worth betting on should move. This is because there will be sharps who know which side to bet on and squares who will be on both sides at random. But we know there exist games in which the line doesn't move because the money comes in evenly, yet the sharps all say to bet on the same side. Are you saying that the balanced action is a result of a freak distribution of the square money? If not, then how do you explain it?
According to your theory, any line that a sharp player feels is worth betting on should move. This is because there will be sharps who know which side to bet on and squares who will be on both sides at random. But we know there exist games in which the line doesn't move because the money comes in evenly, yet the sharps all say to bet on the same side. Are you saying that the balanced action is a result of a freak distribution of the square money? If not, then how do you explain it?
Hache - The more I think about it the more I can recall bettors that just cannot win. I am not talking about all over the place parlay, or gimmick players, but guys that bet straight plays for similar amounts night in and night out. They just have some kind of perverse thinking that actually comes up with losers. I swear these guys would be better off with a hat pin and a schedule, blindly stab the schedule and bet whatever team has a hole in it.
wil.
wil.
Now, this guy above, Caesar, really knows his stuff regarding services. Ive had many conversations with him, and anyone that reads this thread and has questions regarding the "system" of using various services should talk to him. Also, read his last paragraph about where he talks about jumping the bandwagon when someone has been hot for a long period of time. He goes on to say that its not a good idea to jump on them, because they are due to start cooling off. Well you have look at someone who's losing that you are considering to fade and use this same philosophy. Who's to say they aren't about to go on a huge winning streak?. Put plain and simple, I do well in the college area where I need help by following guys who's won year in and year out. If you have that option, why would you even consider "fading" or taking the opposite site of someone else just because they've been on a losing steak? I flip a quarter and call heads, but it lands on tails 5 times in a row. Does that mean if I call heads the for the 6th time that you should "fade" me and pick tails, thinking I will "lose" again? Id say that is ridiculous because odds are Im going to win one. I know some of you will say you cant compare this to someone capping games that isnt faring well, but in the end if you think about it......it's the exact same thing because we cant predict whats going to happen in sports, regardless of how much we all think we know.....
[This message was edited by Hache man on February 17, 2004 at 10:03 PM.]
[This message was edited by Hache man on February 17, 2004 at 10:03 PM.]
Wil....I just read you last post above, and I do agree, because my brother~in~law has always been like that. He just never, ever could win. But "On the Average", talking about the majority of us that are knowledgeable about sports and wager on a consistent basis, I still stand behind my thoughts. Heck, all of us think we know everything there is to know about sports, but in the end, we have no freakin idea what's going to happen in that particular football or basketball game. I know all of us here have picked a game in the past that we just knew could not lose.......only to have it come out just the opposite than we expected.
