In games where the away team is favored in week 1 under hits 69% of the time

[justanobserver]

I post these alot, but i am starting strong here in week 1, in games where away favorites are favored by 6 or less, the game goes under 69% of the time in week 1.

Here is the data:

season > 2002 and AF and week < 2 and line > -6.5
SU: 33-27-0 (3.32, 55.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 30-30-0 (0.07, 50.0%) avg line: -3.2 +6: 37-22-1 (62.7%) -6: 22-38-0 (36.7%) +10: 46-13-1 (78.0%) -10: 15-44-1 (25.4%) O/U: 18-40-2 (-4.30, 31.0%) avg total: 42.6 +6: 11-48-1 (18.6%) -6: 33-26-1 (55.9%) +10: 9-51-0 (15.0%) -10: 38-21-1 (64.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.9 110.1 35.1 21.8 223.8 1.5 3.9 7.0 4.8 5.1 20.8 Opp 26.3 113.1 32.2 19.2 192.0 1.9 3.3 5.5 3.6 4.9 17.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 07, 2008 Sunday 1 2008 Cardinals Fortyniners away 3-7 7-3 10-0 3-3 23-13 -2.5 41.5 10 7.5 -5.5 1.0 -6.5 W W U 0 Sep 08, 2008 Monday 1 2008 Broncos Raiders away 7-0 10-0 10-0 14-14 41-14 -3.0 41.0 27 24.0 14.0 19.0 -5.0 W W O 0 Sep 13, 2009 Sunday 1 2009 Eagles Panthers away 3-7 28-3 7-0 0-0 38-10 -2.5 44.5 28 25.5 3.5 14.5 -11.0 W W O 0 Sep 13, 2009 Sunday 1 2009 Vikings Browns away 3-3 7-10 14-0 10-7 34-20 -4.0 40.0 14 10.0 14.0 12.0 2.0 W W O 0 Sep 13, 2009 Sunday 1 2009 Cowboys Buccaneers away 6-0 7-7 7-0 14-14 34-21 -6.0 40.0 13 7.0 15.0 11.0 4.0 W W O 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Dolphins Bills away 3-0 7-3 0-0 5-7 15-10 -3.0 38.5 5 2.0 -13.5 -5.8 -7.8 W W U 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Falcons Steelers away 0-3 3-0 3-3 3-3 9-15 -1.0 38.0 -6 -7.0 -14.0 -10.5 -3.5 L L U 1 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Colts Texans away 0-6 10-7 0-7 14-14 24-34 -1.0 47.5 -10 -11.0 10.5 -0.2 10.8 L L O 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Fortyniners Seahawks away 3-0 3-14 0-14 0-3 6-31 -3.0 39.5 -25 -28.0 -2.5 -15.2 12.8 L L U 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Packers Eagles away 0-3 13-0 14-7 0-10 27-20 -3.0 47.0 7 4.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 W W P 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Cardinals Rams away 0-0 10-10 0-3 7-0 17-13 -3.5 39.5 4 0.5 -9.5 -4.5 -5.0 W W U 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Cowboys Redskins away 0-3 0-7 7-0 0-3 7-13 -3.5 39.5 -6 -9.5 -19.5 -14.5 -5.0 L L U 0 Sep 13, 2010 Monday 1 2010 Chargers Chiefs away 7-7 0-14 7-0 0-0 14-21 -4.5 45.0 -7 -11.5 -10.0 -10.8 0.8 L L U 0 Sep 11, 2011 Sunday 1 2011 Falcons Bears away 3-10 0-6 3-14 6-0 12-30 -2.0 40.5 -18 -20.0 1.5 -9.2 10.8 L L O 0 Sep 11, 2011 Sunday 1 2011 Eagles Rams away 14-7 3-3 7-3 7-0 31-13 -4.5 44.0 18 13.5 0.0 6.8 -6.8 W W P 0 Sep 11, 2011 Sunday 1 2011 Giants Redskins away 7-0 7-14 0-7 0-7 14-28 -2.0 39.5 -14 -16.0 2.5 -6.8 9.2 L L O 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Patriots Titans away 7-3 14-0 7-7 6-3 34-13 -6.0 47.5 21 15.0 -0.5 7.2 -7.8 W W U 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Falcons Chiefs away 10-3 10-14 14-0 6-7 40-24 -2.5 43.0 16 13.5 21.0 17.2 3.8 W W O 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Seahawks Cardinals away 3-3 0-7 10-3 3-7 16-20 -2.5 41.0 -4 -6.5 -5.0 -5.8 0.8 L L U 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Panthers Buccaneers away 0-10 0-3 7-0 3-3 10-16 -2.5 47.0 -6 -8.5 -21.0 -14.8 -6.2 L L U 0 Sep 08, 2013 Sunday 1 2013 Buccaneers Jets away 7-2 7-10 0-0 3-6 17-18 -3.5 39.5 -1 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 0.0 L L U 0 Sep 08, 2013 Sunday 1 2013 Seahawks Panthers away 0-0 3-7 3-0 6-0 12-7 -3.0 45.0 5 2.0 -26.0 -12.0 -14.0 W W U 0 Sep 08, 2013 Sunday 1 2013 Chiefs Jaguars away 14-2 7-0 0-0 7-0 28-2 -4.0 42.5 26 22.0 -12.5 4.8 -17.2 W W U 0 Sep 09, 2013 Monday 1 2013 Texans Chargers away 7-7 0-14 7-7 17-0 31-28 -4.0 44.5 3 -1.0 14.5 6.8 7.8 W L O 0 Sep 07, 2014 view Sunday 1 2014 Fortyniners Cowboys away 21-3 7-0 0-7 0-7 28-17 -4.5 51.0 11 6.5 -6.0 0.2 -6.2 W W U 0 Sep 07, 2014 view Sunday 1 2014 Patriots Dolphins away 10-7 10-3 0-13 0-10 20-33 -4.0 46.5 -13 -17.0 6.5 -5.2 11.8 L L O 0 Sep 07, 2014 view Sunday 1 2014 Saints Falcons away 6-0 14-10 0-14 14-10 34-37 -2.5 52.0 -3 -5.5 19.0 6.8 12.2 L L O 1 Sep 13, 2015 view Sunday 1 2015 Colts Bills away 0-7 0-10 8-7 6-3 14-27 -1.0 45.0 -13 -14.0 -4.0 -9.0 5.0 L L U 0 Sep 13, 2015 view Sunday 1 2015 Panthers Jaguars away 3-3 7-6 7-0 3-0 20-9 -3.5 41.0 11 7.5 -12.0 -2.2 -9.8 W W U 0 Sep 13, 2015 view Sunday 1 2015 Bengals Raiders away 7-0 17-0 9-0 0-13 33-13 -3.0 43.0 20 17.0 3.0 10.0 -7.0 W W O 0 Sep 13, 2015 view Sunday 1 2015 Seahawks Rams away 7-0 3-10 3-14 18-7 31-34 -3.5 42.0 -3 -6.5 23.0 8.2 14.8 L L O 1 Sep 13, 2015 view Sunday 1 2015 Dolphins Redskins away 0-3 7-7 0-0 10-0 17-10 -3.5 44.0 7 3.5 -17.0 -6.8 -10.2 W W U 0 Sep 14, 2015 view Monday 1 2015 Eagles Falcons away 0-3 3-17 14-0 7-6 24-26 -3.0 55.0 -2 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 0.0 L L U 0 Sep 14, 2015 view Monday 1 2015 Vikings Fortyniners away 0-0 0-7 0-3 3-10 3-20 -2.5 42.0 -17 -19.5 -19 -19.2 0.2 L L U 0 Sep 08, 2016 view Thursday 1 2016 Panthers Broncos away -3.0 41.5 Sep 11, 2016 view Sunday 1 2016 Packers Jaguars away -4.5 48.0 Sep 11, 2016 view Sunday 1 2016 Bengals Jets away -2.5 41.5 Sep 11, 2016 view Sunday 1 2016 Vikings Titans away -2.0 41.0 Sep 12, 2016 view Monday 1 2016 Rams Fortyniners away -2.5 44.0 Sep 12, 2016 view Monday 1 2016 Steelers Redskins away -3.0 50.0 Showing 1 to 40 of 40 entries

 

[justanobserver]

I messed around with limiting the number to high or low totals but it didn't change much, seems like a pretty solid trend.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I like the Under 42 in the Thursday night game, does this system fall into Thursday games since its week 1.

 

[justanobserver]

I like the Under 42 in the Thursday night game, does this system fall into Thursday games since its week 1.

Yep, several playable games this week. I like the Rams/Niners and Bengals/Jets

 

[varkeyboy]

Yep, several playable games this week. I like the Rams/Niners and Bengals/Jets

So do you pick & choose........or do you follow the system's parameters and play all of them that qualify? Teams that qualify:

PANTHERS / UNDER 41.5
VIKINGS / UNDER 41
BENGALS / UNDER 41.5
PACKERS / UNDER 48
STEELERS / UNDER 50
RAMS / UNDER 44

 

[Biz]

If NON-Division game

season > 2002 and AF and week < 2 and line > -6.5 and division != o:division
SU: 24-13-0 (4.81, 64.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 21-16-0 (1.50, 56.8%) avg line: -3.3 +6: 27-9-1 (75.0%) -6: 16-21-0 (43.2%) +10: 30-7-0 (81.1%) -10: 10-26-1 (27.8%) O/U: 10-25-2 (-5.18, 28.6%) avg total: 43.3 +6: 5-31-1 (13.9%) -6: 20-16-1 (55.6%) +10: 5-32-0 (13.5%) -10: 22-15-0 (59.5%)

Sep 08, 2016	view	Thursday	1	2016	Panthers	Broncos	away						-3.0	41.5
Sep 11, 2016	view	Sunday	1	2016	Packers	Jaguars	away						-4.5	48.0
Sep 11, 2016	view	Sunday	1	2016	Bengals	Jets	away						-2.5	41.5
Sep 11, 2016	view	Sunday	1	2016	Vikings	Titans	away						-2.0	41.0
Sep 12, 2016	view	Monday	1	2016	Steelers	Redskins	away						-3.0	50.0

Division Game: Favorite has lost 10 of last 11 games also.

season > 2002 and AF and week < 2 and line > -6.5 and division = o:division SU: 9-14-0 (0.91, 39.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 9-14-0 (-2.22, 39.1%) avg line: -3.1 +6: 10-13-0 (43.5%) -6: 6-17-0 (26.1%) +10: 16-6-1 (72.7%) -10: 5-18-0 (21.7%) O/U: 8-15-0 (-2.89, 34.8%) avg total: 41.5 +6: 6-17-0 (26.1%) -6: 13-10-0 (56.5%) +10: 4-19-0 (17.4%) -10: 16-6-1 (72.7%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.7 104.3 36.0 22.3 227.7 1.4 4.0 6.0 4.1 5.6 19.7 Opp 26.0 106.7 30.1 17.7 182.8 1.8 2.4 6.7 4.5 5.0 18.8 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 12, 2004 Sunday 1 2004 Ravens Browns away 0-0 0-3 3-7 0-10 3-20 -3.0 37.0 -17 -20.0 -14.0 -17.0 3.0 L L U 0 Sep 11, 2005 Sunday 1 2005 Bengals Browns away 0-3 17-7 10-0 0-3 27-13 -3.5 44.5 14 10.5 -4.5 3.0 -7.5 W W U 0 Sep 11, 2005 Sunday 1 2005 Rams Fortyniners away 3-0 6-21 3-7 13-0 25-28 -6.0 46.0 -3 -9.0 7.0 -1.0 8.0 L L O 0 Sep 10, 2006 Sunday 1 2006 Bears Packers away 7-0 9-0 3-0 7-0 26-0 -3.5 35.0 26 22.5 -9.0 6.8 -15.8 W W U 0 Sep 11, 2006 Monday 1 2006 Chargers Raiders away 3-0 10-0 0-0 14-0 27-0 -3.0 43.0 27 24.0 -16.0 4.0 -20.0 W W U 0 Sep 09, 2007 Sunday 1 2007 Steelers Browns away 17-0 0-0 14-7 3-0 34-7 -4.5 37.0 27 22.5 4.0 13.2 -9.2 W W O 0 Sep 07, 2008 Sunday 1 2008 Bengals Ravens away 0-7 3-3 0-7 7-0 10-17 -1.5 38.5 -7 -8.5 -11.5 -10.0 -1.5 L L U 0 Sep 07, 2008 Sunday 1 2008 Jets Dolphins away 7-0 6-7 7-0 0-7 20-14 -3.0 36.0 6 3.0 -2.0 0.5 -2.5 W W U 0 Sep 07, 2008 Sunday 1 2008 Jaguars Titans away 0-3 7-7 0-0 3-7 10-17 -3.0 36.5 -7 -10.0 -9.5 -9.8 0.2 L L U 0 Sep 07, 2008 Sunday 1 2008 Cardinals Fortyniners away 3-7 7-3 10-0 3-3 23-13 -2.5 41.5 10 7.5 -5.5 1.0 -6.5 W W U 0 Sep 08, 2008 Monday 1 2008 Broncos Raiders away 7-0 10-0 10-0 14-14 41-14 -3.0 41.0 27 24.0 14.0 19.0 -5.0 W W O 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Dolphins Bills away 3-0 7-3 0-0 5-7 15-10 -3.0 38.5 5 2.0 -13.5 -5.8 -7.8 W W U 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Colts Texans away 0-6 10-7 0-7 14-14 24-34 -1.0 47.5 -10 -11.0 10.5 -0.2 10.8 L L O 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Fortyniners Seahawks away 3-0 3-14 0-14 0-3 6-31 -3.0 39.5 -25 -28.0 -2.5 -15.2 12.8 L L U 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Cardinals Rams away 0-0 10-10 0-3 7-0 17-13 -3.5 39.5 4 0.5 -9.5 -4.5 -5.0 W W U 0 Sep 12, 2010 Sunday 1 2010 Cowboys Redskins away 0-3 0-7 7-0 0-3 7-13 -3.5 39.5 -6 -9.5 -19.5 -14.5 -5.0 L L U 0 Sep 13, 2010 Monday 1 2010 Chargers Chiefs away 7-7 0-14 7-0 0-0 14-21 -4.5 45.0 -7 -11.5 -10.0 -10.8 0.8 L L U 0 Sep 11, 2011 Sunday 1 2011 Giants Redskins away 7-0 7-14 0-7 0-7 14-28 -2.0 39.5 -14 -16.0 2.5 -6.8 9.2 L L O 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Seahawks Cardinals away 3-3 0-7 10-3 3-7 16-20 -2.5 41.0 -4 -6.5 -5.0 -5.8 0.8 L L U 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Panthers Buccaneers away 0-10 0-3 7-0 3-3 10-16 -2.5 47.0 -6 -8.5 -21.0 -14.8 -6.2 L L U 0 Sep 07, 2014 view Sunday 1 2014 Patriots Dolphins away 10-7 10-3 0-13 0-10 20-33 -4.0 46.5 -13 -17.0 6.5 -5.2 11.8 L L O 0 Sep 07, 2014 view Sunday 1 2014 Saints Falcons away 6-0 14-10 0-14 14-10 34-37 -2.5 52.0 -3 -5.5 19.0 6.8 12.2 L L O 1 Sep 13, 2015 view Sunday 1 2015 Seahawks Rams away 7-0 3-10 3-14 18-7 31-34 -3.5 42.0 -3 -6.5 23.0 8.2 14.8 L L O 1 Sep 12, 2016 view Monday 1 2016 Rams Fortyniners away -2.5 44.0

 

[PeePee]

I see a trend that doesn't hold consistently the year after a +$ year. Meaning only one instance from 2008 that the year after is plus $ again, 2013.

2015 is 5-2 to the Under. FWIW.

 

[justanobserver]

I am by no means advocating for betting all of these games, look at this info like i do, if you are already leaning one way this might tip you in the direction.

 

[Biz]

I see a trend that doesn't hold consistently the year after a +$ year. Meaning only one instance from 2008 that the year after is plus $ again, 2013.

2015 is 5-2 to the Under. FWIW.

2012 and 2013 both winning seasons.

AF and week < 2 and line > -6.5 and season = 2012
SU: 2-2-0 (6.75, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 2-2-0 (3.38, 50.0%) avg line: -3.4 +6: 2-2-0 (50.0%) -6: 2-2-0 (50.0%) +10: 4-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 2-2-0 (50.0%) O/U: 1-3-0 (-1.38, 25.0%) avg total: 44.6 +6: 1-3-0 (25.0%) -6: 3-1-0 (75.0%) +10: 1-3-0 (25.0%) -10: 3-1-0 (75.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.0 92.8 32.2 21.8 237.5 1.0 5.0 6.0 9.5 4.5 25.0 Opp 26.2 86.2 34.0 21.5 210.8 1.8 4.8 6.0 2.5 5.0 18.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Patriots Titans away 7-3 14-0 7-7 6-3 34-13 -6.0 47.5 21 15.0 -0.5 7.2 -7.8 W W U 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Falcons Chiefs away 10-3 10-14 14-0 6-7 40-24 -2.5 43.0 16 13.5 21.0 17.2 3.8 W W O 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Seahawks Cardinals away 3-3 0-7 10-3 3-7 16-20 -2.5 41.0 -4 -6.5 -5.0 -5.8 0.8 L L U 0 Sep 09, 2012 Sunday 1 2012 Panthers Buccaneers away 0-10 0-3 7-0 3-3 10-16 -2.5 47.0 -6 -8.5 -21.0 -14.8 -6.2 L L U 0 Showing 1 to 4 of 4 entries AF and week < 2 and line > -6.5 and season = 2013 SU: 3-1-0 (8.25, 75.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 2-2-0 (4.62, 50.0%) avg line: -3.6 +6: 4-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 1-3-0 (25.0%) +10: 4-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 1-3-0 (25.0%) O/U: 1-3-0 (-7.12, 25.0%) avg total: 42.9 +6: 1-3-0 (25.0%) -6: 2-2-0 (50.0%) +10: 1-3-0 (25.0%) -10: 2-2-0 (50.0%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.8 93.8 35.8 23.8 246.2 1.0 7.0 4.2 2.5 8.2 22.0 Opp 24.2 91.2 33.0 18.2 155.8 1.8 2.8 7.8 1.8 1.5 13.8 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 08, 2013 Sunday 1 2013 Buccaneers Jets away 7-2 7-10 0-0 3-6 17-18 -3.5 39.5 -1 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 0.0 L L U 0 Sep 08, 2013 Sunday 1 2013 Seahawks Panthers away 0-0 3-7 3-0 6-0 12-7 -3.0 45.0 5 2.0 -26.0 -12.0 -14.0 W W U 0 Sep 08, 2013 Sunday 1 2013 Chiefs Jaguars away 14-2 7-0 0-0 7-0 28-2 -4.0 42.5 26 22.0 -12.5 4.8 -17.2 W W U 0 Sep 09, 2013 Monday 1 2013 Texans Chargers away 7-7 0-14 7-7 17-0 31-28 -4.0 44.5 3 -1.0 14.5 6.8 7.8 W L O 0 Showing 1 to 4 of 4 entries

 

[PeePee]

Yes, 2013 is the only repeating year of +$ to play under. All other years were -$. So be cautious because 2015 was a +$ year. If you plan to blindly bet all games.

 

[justanobserver]

Honestly, who would blindly bet all of these games because i posted a trend? Again, these trends are used as tools to get yourself closer to a decision, nothing more.

 

[Biz]

Yes, 2013 is the only repeating year of +$ to play under. All other years were -$. So be cautious because 2015 was a +$ year. If you plan to blindly bet all games.

The overall record is more important than the randomness of whether or not a season was profitable. You can make the case 3 of the last 4 were profitable.

 

[justanobserver]

For me if something hits 69% of the time in a 60 game sample, thats pretty solid.