You should probably fade me because the title of my thread is asking for a big fat 0-4 ass whooping today.
but seriously, I have been doing well and posting my plays. I'm up 10 units on the year, and went 4-0 last night with 3 chalkie plays and the Tigers/Indians under (1-0 game). Even those losses on my 84% run have usually been in extra innings/blown saves.
My focus as a gambler is to bet the same units, and I would say that I pick a lot of games for players that are due to buck the trend, and I am not affraid to chase losses. For example, the Yanks lost 5 in a row and I bet them last night. I really doubt they'd lose 6, 7, 8, 9 games in a row etc.
I also try and make sure I win at least a little bit of money every day. It's not make a killing, maybe lose, the goal is to end up "positive" every day. So I might take 2 plus money dogs that I think have better than 50% chance of winning etc.
Todays card
Yanks -148: I played the yanks last night and I don't think they lose 5 games in a row, win one, and then lose again. I am more generally favorable to Phil Hughs and I HATE Adam Eaton. If Guthrie was pitching I'd probably lay off this game but I think Eaton is low hanging fruit. This line really doesn't seem to reflect that A-Roid is back and that the stadium should probably be 50% yanks fans tonight.
Dodgers -148: See, here is what I am talking about. The dodgers were 13-0 at home but then lost 2 games. I think they have the better hitting, better pitcher, the home magic, the rivalry and the desire to buck the trend here. If they lose, I'll chase. Too much negative sentiment about Manny, I like the number here.
Texas +114: I played Texas as a home dog vs the Chisox sunday and won, I think they clearly have the better hitting here even without mike young. Millwood is their ace and the Rangers have already hit Danks. I like the Rangers as a dog here, I really don't like the White Sox hitting, they were shut out 2 nights ago.
Angels +104: I have been riding the Zack Greinke train all year and I think it's a crowded train to ride right now. It is really really hard to fade him but here are some of my reasons.
- Angels are a home dog, better hitting team
- Zack is a better starter, but Saunders isn't bad
- Zack only has 2 road starts
- His last 4 starts were 9 innings, 7 innings, 9 innings and 9 innings. I am hoping he only throws 7, last time he threw 7 he gave up 2 runs.
KC is 7-9 as dogs, Angels are 7-4 as favorites.
I think this one will be close, and I am normally wanting to PLAY Zack Greinke, but I can't with the road start, better hititng team, the price, all the people trying to bet him, and the fact that Saunders isn't bad himself.
GL fellas. :toast:
but seriously, I have been doing well and posting my plays. I'm up 10 units on the year, and went 4-0 last night with 3 chalkie plays and the Tigers/Indians under (1-0 game). Even those losses on my 84% run have usually been in extra innings/blown saves.
My focus as a gambler is to bet the same units, and I would say that I pick a lot of games for players that are due to buck the trend, and I am not affraid to chase losses. For example, the Yanks lost 5 in a row and I bet them last night. I really doubt they'd lose 6, 7, 8, 9 games in a row etc.
I also try and make sure I win at least a little bit of money every day. It's not make a killing, maybe lose, the goal is to end up "positive" every day. So I might take 2 plus money dogs that I think have better than 50% chance of winning etc.
Todays card
Yanks -148: I played the yanks last night and I don't think they lose 5 games in a row, win one, and then lose again. I am more generally favorable to Phil Hughs and I HATE Adam Eaton. If Guthrie was pitching I'd probably lay off this game but I think Eaton is low hanging fruit. This line really doesn't seem to reflect that A-Roid is back and that the stadium should probably be 50% yanks fans tonight.
Dodgers -148: See, here is what I am talking about. The dodgers were 13-0 at home but then lost 2 games. I think they have the better hitting, better pitcher, the home magic, the rivalry and the desire to buck the trend here. If they lose, I'll chase. Too much negative sentiment about Manny, I like the number here.
Texas +114: I played Texas as a home dog vs the Chisox sunday and won, I think they clearly have the better hitting here even without mike young. Millwood is their ace and the Rangers have already hit Danks. I like the Rangers as a dog here, I really don't like the White Sox hitting, they were shut out 2 nights ago.
Angels +104: I have been riding the Zack Greinke train all year and I think it's a crowded train to ride right now. It is really really hard to fade him but here are some of my reasons.
- Angels are a home dog, better hitting team
- Zack is a better starter, but Saunders isn't bad
- Zack only has 2 road starts
- His last 4 starts were 9 innings, 7 innings, 9 innings and 9 innings. I am hoping he only throws 7, last time he threw 7 he gave up 2 runs.
KC is 7-9 as dogs, Angels are 7-4 as favorites.
I think this one will be close, and I am normally wanting to PLAY Zack Greinke, but I can't with the road start, better hititng team, the price, all the people trying to bet him, and the fact that Saunders isn't bad himself.
GL fellas. :toast:
