I'm just trying to beat the house...

[alohakicks]

I am just gonna post for personal records as well. I am basically trying to figure out the house edge versus his needs and wants. Right now for the bowl season I am 19-9 average so far at 68%. I can post the breakdown from the first bowl game if you want. But it has been working at mid season.

So tomorrows games:
FSU current line: -7 local house line -7 Play the dog
OK current line.: -4(pinnacle) local house line -3.5 play the dog
Bama current line: -10 local house line -9.5 play the dog

Gonna watch the lines through out the night. Hopefully it doesn't back fire ##). GL

 

[alohakicks]

Todays games. I'm just trying to win. But we all know the house never losses...
Aub closing line: -3 local line:3.5 Play the Fav. (WIN)
Miss. St. closing line: -6 local line: -5.5 Play the Dog (LOSE)
Louisville closing line: -3 local line:-4.5 Play the Fav. (WIN)
USC closing line: -3.5 local line: -3 play the Dog(WIN)

 

[alohakicks]

k: GL

 

[Tiantain]

What is your reasoning for taking the Fav or Dog? I don't understand this system you're using (coin flip).

 

[razorbackpicks]

It appears he is using a line movement pick, so if the money moves the line from -4 to -3.5 he is playing against the move, but then again half of his plays almost are against that. I don't think it's truly what he is leading on, appears to be just a pick

 

[alohakicks]

I am playing with the houses needs versus wants according to the house line moves. Razorback is kind of correct lol. But I am not using public percent, I am basing the pick on the house line and current line. I can tell you how I read the lines if you want. It's pretty easy. If the house and current line is the same (play the dog).. Which i did with UH v.s Florida.

 

[phantom888]

I am playing with the houses needs versus wants according to the house line moves. Razorback is kind of correct lol. But I am not using public percent, I am basing the pick on the house line and current line. I can tell you how I read the lines if you want. It's pretty easy. If the house and current line is the same (play the dog).. Which i did with UH v.s Florida.

then again, it depends on the house. everyone has different "house lines" so just depends.

thanks keep postin!

 

[LivintheFamilyLife!]

From Hawaii too & I've used this theory pretty successfully until i moved to the mainland. Just need to pick your spots on when to lay off or go opposite. Todays games on Hou & Michst make sense because Fsu & Bama were/are pretty public sides thinking blowouts but yet they set line same or lower. I'd go opposite on Clemson since house didnt wanna hang 4 because +3.5 on the #1 team would draw enough action already. No need to risk a push on 4. Just my angle & opinion. Good luck!

 

[alohakicks]

Houston Su +7(Win)
Clemson SU +3.5(Win)
Michigan +9.5 (Lose)

2-1 on record
Will post tomorrows plays later.

 

[alohakicks]

1/1
Tennessee: actual line -8 House line: -8.5 Play fav
Ohio st: actual line:-6 House line: -6.5 play fav
Michigan: actual line -3.5 House line: -4 play fav
Stanford: actual line -6 House line: -6 play dog
Ole Miss: actual line 7.5 House line: -7 play dog

If lines move i will update


Gl

 

[alohakicks]

Huge line swing on Tennessee: actual line -9.5 so will change my play from Fav to Dog at +8.5. I know there's no value in my line.

 

[alohakicks]

line change on Michigan: Actual line:4.5 so i will change my play from Fav to Dog at +4