The MD Kid
All great men are dying ... I don't feel so well myself
posted August 18, 2004 07:19 PM
With John Hirschbeck behind the plate?? Highly doubt it, but thats just my opinion
Good point. But I know that and gave my opinion. Seven runs will score in my opinion. We all have our opinions and plays. This is my play. If you feel strong on the ubder take it. But I like my play.
All great men are dying ... I don't feel so well myself
posted August 18, 2004 07:19 PM
With John Hirschbeck behind the plate?? Highly doubt it, but thats just my opinion
Good point. But I know that and gave my opinion. Seven runs will score in my opinion. We all have our opinions and plays. This is my play. If you feel strong on the ubder take it. But I like my play.
LOL-- Game went OVER after 3 innings. Score was tied 3-3 equal automatic win unless something crazy happens and game is called.
You also have to realize the line was 6.5 !!!! The line gets adjusted for umpires these days. Do you realize how low 6.5 is? Take a look at all games that was ever posted with a 6.5 total and tell me the record. You will be surprised.
You also have to realize the line was 6.5 !!!! The line gets adjusted for umpires these days. Do you realize how low 6.5 is? Take a look at all games that was ever posted with a 6.5 total and tell me the record. You will be surprised.
> Record for last 8 years ...
LOL... record O/U in 2003 is 16-15. Was 12-12 heading into this game. That's 28-27 L57 games... spin L8 years anyway you want but you have to stop thinking "Hirsbeck = under game".
You can't use L8 years for any umpire stats b/c MLB mandated changes in way umpires calls games. Some umpires are still changing their strike zone.
Also, utilizing umpire stats isn't as effectice as it used to be b/c games are adjusted for the clearly O/U biased umpires. This game would be 8 runs with any average umpire. The 6.5 was adjusted b/c all the schmucks who auto-jump on the under.
But I guess we're just idiots and you're the expert. Please tell us how lucky we were.
LOL... record O/U in 2003 is 16-15. Was 12-12 heading into this game. That's 28-27 L57 games... spin L8 years anyway you want but you have to stop thinking "Hirsbeck = under game".
You can't use L8 years for any umpire stats b/c MLB mandated changes in way umpires calls games. Some umpires are still changing their strike zone.
Also, utilizing umpire stats isn't as effectice as it used to be b/c games are adjusted for the clearly O/U biased umpires. This game would be 8 runs with any average umpire. The 6.5 was adjusted b/c all the schmucks who auto-jump on the under.
But I guess we're just idiots and you're the expert. Please tell us how lucky we were.
Dottom, as I indicated in my picks thread, Hirschbeck's numbers are "officially" 28-27 the last 2 seasons, but this record is calculated using the CLOSING line. On a number of occasions, I have won in Hirschbeck's games by playing the game early (usually the night before), and watched as the line dropped the next day. As a matter of fact, I have even hit middles on 2 separate occasions by playing the early line and the late line. As for 6.5 being incredibly low, I agree. But it was 6.5 +109, not 6.5 -115 or something - big difference. I coulda played it at u7 - 120 if I had so chosen. Also, what makes you think this game woulda been u8 with any other ump? The two starting pitchers had ERA's of 3.18 and 2.74, the pens were 3.36 and 3.88, and the 2 teams averaged a combined 8.90 runs/game vs righthanders (which is less than the league average). It sounds to me like it was just about what it should have been even with an "average" ump.
Also, I realize that just averaging an umpire statistics over the last 8 years is erroneous. I don't do that. I weight each succeeding year a little more each time to take into account an umpire's changing strikezone, and I also weight the years 2001 - 2004 much more since these are the years since MLB mandated a new expanded strikezone. Finally, I curve each umpires stats according to the number of games he has actually umped - an umpire who has a O/U record of 30-14 is not rated as highly as someone who has a record of 130-105 for instance, because it is easy to get a misrepresentative sample from a limited number of games.
In summary, I continue to have a great deal of success using my ratings and playing these games accordingly. I'm not claiming to be the one and only "expert", and I don't infer that everyone or anyone else is an idiot for not following my picks. If you don't wanna use my free advice, then don't. Its a free world.
Oh - one more thing. Regarding bettors who took the over on today's game - 11 innings, 20 total hits, 3 total walks, and 26 total strikeouts. You were LUCKY! Go ahead - Deny it.
Also, I realize that just averaging an umpire statistics over the last 8 years is erroneous. I don't do that. I weight each succeeding year a little more each time to take into account an umpire's changing strikezone, and I also weight the years 2001 - 2004 much more since these are the years since MLB mandated a new expanded strikezone. Finally, I curve each umpires stats according to the number of games he has actually umped - an umpire who has a O/U record of 30-14 is not rated as highly as someone who has a record of 130-105 for instance, because it is easy to get a misrepresentative sample from a limited number of games.
In summary, I continue to have a great deal of success using my ratings and playing these games accordingly. I'm not claiming to be the one and only "expert", and I don't infer that everyone or anyone else is an idiot for not following my picks. If you don't wanna use my free advice, then don't. Its a free world.
Oh - one more thing. Regarding bettors who took the over on today's game - 11 innings, 20 total hits, 3 total walks, and 26 total strikeouts. You were LUCKY! Go ahead - Deny it.
> Also, what makes you think this game woulda been u8 with any other ump?
My own power lines indicated line of 8 was "fair value". Steam pushed this the oppsite way of the Hirschbeck under lines you're accustomed to seeing as it was O6.5 -126 at Pinnacle. O7.5 -115 at Canbet. This was 7 minutes before game time as I added to my original wager.
Your pitching stats are nothing out of the ordinary that should make the line 6.5. You'll see the same stats at Pac Bell Park or in Atlanta and see lines of 7.5. Also, L7-of-8 MIL home games went over, L2 Clement starts went over, L3-of-4 Sheets starts went over, so it's not like all trends were indicating under.
At 8 or 8.5 I'd lay off this game, but 6.5 with steam is a different story...
My own power lines indicated line of 8 was "fair value". Steam pushed this the oppsite way of the Hirschbeck under lines you're accustomed to seeing as it was O6.5 -126 at Pinnacle. O7.5 -115 at Canbet. This was 7 minutes before game time as I added to my original wager.
Your pitching stats are nothing out of the ordinary that should make the line 6.5. You'll see the same stats at Pac Bell Park or in Atlanta and see lines of 7.5. Also, L7-of-8 MIL home games went over, L2 Clement starts went over, L3-of-4 Sheets starts went over, so it's not like all trends were indicating under.
At 8 or 8.5 I'd lay off this game, but 6.5 with steam is a different story...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by X-Files:
What kind of success are you having? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
X ... I am 19-13, +9.51 units on my over/unders posted in this forum this season. I was doing as well or better before I started posting. My sides are another story, but I have repeatedly stated that totals are my "bag".
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by dottom:
My own power lines indicated line of 8 was "fair value". Steam pushed this the oppsite way of the Hirschbeck under lines you're accustomed to seeing as it was O6.5 -126 at Pinnacle. O7.5 -115 at Canbet. This was 7 minutes before game time as I added to my original wager.
Your pitching stats are nothing out of the ordinary that should make the line 6.5. You'll see the same stats at Pac Bell Park or in Atlanta and see lines of 7.5. Also, L7-of-8 MIL home games went over, L2 Clement starts went over, L3-of-4 Sheets starts went over, so it's not like all trends were indicating under.
At 8 or 8.5 I'd lay off this game, but 6.5 with steam is a different story... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I agree that lines are adjusted for the "Hirschbeck factor", but not nearly enough
in my opinion. Games that Hirschbeck has umped over the years have averaged 1.5 to 2 runs less per game than the MLB average. Last year was an aberation, which can happen in any small sample, but this year it is back to a 1.5 run difference. His K/BB ratio is even higher this year than his lifetime average. I had the fair value of the game at 7.25. Subtracting 1.5 to 2 runs made this game a very playable game in my opinion. Even if we only subtracted 1 run (since it was a low scoring game), there was still great value at u6.5 +109. Once again, and most importantly, you have to remember the stats that you see on these umps are based on the CLOSING LINE. I rarely play that line. The overnight line is usually (but not always) the far better line in these cases.
As for the recent trends data for the pitchers and ballparks that you cite, I put very little credence in these factors. I have found long term data taken over the full season or over many seasons to be a far more reliable handicapping tool. Of course, that is only my opinion. It has worked for me. Thanks for your input, nonetheless.
What kind of success are you having? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
X ... I am 19-13, +9.51 units on my over/unders posted in this forum this season. I was doing as well or better before I started posting. My sides are another story, but I have repeatedly stated that totals are my "bag".
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by dottom:
My own power lines indicated line of 8 was "fair value". Steam pushed this the oppsite way of the Hirschbeck under lines you're accustomed to seeing as it was O6.5 -126 at Pinnacle. O7.5 -115 at Canbet. This was 7 minutes before game time as I added to my original wager.
Your pitching stats are nothing out of the ordinary that should make the line 6.5. You'll see the same stats at Pac Bell Park or in Atlanta and see lines of 7.5. Also, L7-of-8 MIL home games went over, L2 Clement starts went over, L3-of-4 Sheets starts went over, so it's not like all trends were indicating under.
At 8 or 8.5 I'd lay off this game, but 6.5 with steam is a different story... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I agree that lines are adjusted for the "Hirschbeck factor", but not nearly enough
in my opinion. Games that Hirschbeck has umped over the years have averaged 1.5 to 2 runs less per game than the MLB average. Last year was an aberation, which can happen in any small sample, but this year it is back to a 1.5 run difference. His K/BB ratio is even higher this year than his lifetime average. I had the fair value of the game at 7.25. Subtracting 1.5 to 2 runs made this game a very playable game in my opinion. Even if we only subtracted 1 run (since it was a low scoring game), there was still great value at u6.5 +109. Once again, and most importantly, you have to remember the stats that you see on these umps are based on the CLOSING LINE. I rarely play that line. The overnight line is usually (but not always) the far better line in these cases.
As for the recent trends data for the pitchers and ballparks that you cite, I put very little credence in these factors. I have found long term data taken over the full season or over many seasons to be a far more reliable handicapping tool. Of course, that is only my opinion. It has worked for me. Thanks for your input, nonetheless.
