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[jbragg10]

Colorado Rockies -135


*** Warning ***
Don't play the Indians tonight.
It falls into a trap game.
Natty across the street said it best, so I will quote him (and give him credit for reminding me of this).
"Whenever there is a favorite where laying 1.5 run pays more or nearly a dollar difference by playing the run line, then that game is probably a linesmakers trap. Mainly saying that the book is thinking the fav has a good chance to lose or the dog stand a good chance to cover the 1.5 runs."

^ Indians fall into this and I wouldn't play the them tonight if it was me.

If you want my opinion on games, just let me know.


Great first half of the year ... let's keep it going!
27-10 73%

 

[a153]

Colorado Rockies -135


*** Warning ***
Don't play the Indians tonight.
It falls into a trap game.
Natty across the street said it best, so I will quote him (and give him credit for reminding me of this).
"Whenever there is a favorite where laying 1.5 run pays more or nearly a dollar difference by playing the run line, then that game is probably a linesmakers trap. Mainly saying that the book is thinking the fav has a good chance to lose or the dog stand a good chance to cover the 1.5 runs."

^ Indians fall into this and I wouldn't play the them tonight if it was me.

If you want my opinion on games, just let me know.


Great first half of the year ... let's keep it going!
27-10 73%

Isn't that every time the team is -200 ?

 

[pistol495]

While I dont diagree with Natty's assessment, you have to wonder why they would post a -200 on CLE in the first place. I think the trap might be SEA especially if you look at the current forms of the teams.

Pistol

 

[Janesl36]

Jbragg, can you give me your thoughts on the Mets vs Braves game?

 

[wags4]

Congrats on the season jbragg's. Let's keep it going n good luck :toast:

 

[jbragg10]

Isn't that every time the team is -200 ?

no

 

[jbragg10]

Jbragg, can you give me your thoughts on the Mets vs Braves game?

The only thing I like in that game is the under.
I guess I would take the Mets (mostly because of the price)

 

[jbragg10]

Congrats on the season jbragg's. Let's keep it going n good luck :toast:

thanks wags and good luck tonight!

 

[a153]

no

Braves game is the exact same line as the Indians. Not sure I understand this theory.

 

[focker]

braggs, saw nattys post also.....if its a trap, may want to look at the otherside. Natty is on SEA....this is very interesting ...... you said above you were reminded of this type of trap, whats the way to go if one was to take the otherside? RL or ML?......I am going to keep an eye on this....

GL luck with COL tonight, I am w/ you

 

[DChosta]

I think the Rockies are gonna be a trap play tonight as well.. price continuing to fall on them and shouldn't be priced this low w/ Cook on the Mound vs. a Padres team who have done a whole lot of nothin' the past week or so.

 

[KingofNicotine]

Did anyone just see Seattle go from +170 to +190.

Mets just went from +155 to +185 also.

 

[a153]

A lot of jibberish in this thread. I realize some people still believe in traps but not sure how a -200 team could be a trap. It's not a trap laying 2 to 1 on a game. This theory also makes no sense. Every time a team is -200 the RL is pretty standard ranging from even money to +110. Braves and Indians are exact same lines so both games are traps? lol

 

[powerz]

The trap goes as follows - Joe Blow looks at Cliff Lee vs Seattle & thinks hmmm I like that game.

Then he sees -200 and thinks ewww thats a hefty price

Then he says I think I'll lay the run line and only pay some juice there but only -110ish

The game plays out like this - cleveland jumps out to an early lead and and then it slowly gives back teh lead over the course of the game and Seattle either wins late or covers the 1.5 and all those parlays and/or RL plays get blown up.

GL guys



Jbragg keep the winners coming!


Powerz:toast:

 

[a153]

The trap goes as follows - Joe Blow looks at Cliff Lee vs Seattle & thinks hmmm I like that game.

Then he sees -200 and thinks ewww thats a hefty price

Then he says I think I'll lay the run line and only pay some juice there but only -110ish

The game plays out like this - cleveland jumps out to an early lead and and then it slowly gives back teh lead over the course of the game and Seattle either wins late or covers the 1.5 and all those parlays and/or RL plays get blown up.

GL guys



Jbragg keep the winners coming!


Powerz:toast:

But that makes no sense. That is the case with every big favorite in baseball. By your reasoning every time a team is -200 its a trap.

 

[jbragg10]

Road Home RL ML Diff
SEA CLE 102 -206 108
NYM ATL 121 -174 95

 

[jbragg10]

But that makes no sense. That is the case with every big favorite in baseball. By your reasoning every time a team is -200 its a trap.

Yes ... for the runline.
I guess basically is what I am saying is if you see a -200 team (that pays more or nearly a dollar difference )
Play the dog and you will be a winner over the long run.
I think the percentage is around 50%, meaning cash will come in


Playing a run line on any team that is -200 is a dumb move. Save your money

 

[KingofNicotine]

jbragg, what is your second favorite game of the day if you had to choose?

 

[jbragg10]

jbragg, what is your second favorite game of the day if you had to choose?

probably the Reds or Oakland under

 

[Janesl36]

The only thing I like in that game is the under.
I guess I would take the Mets (mostly because of the price)

Thanks.:toast: