if you like arizona,, is there any value in +3???

[Dexter03]

what are the chances arizona will lose by 1 or 2 pts? its next to none. you have a better chance of pushing on 3.... so is it better to just take cards ml ?

or take cards to win superbowl at +365 and you can hedge if they win this week against the panthers.... thoughts?

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

go 1 game at a time man. superbowl is a different entity than this weekend.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

+365 cards look kind. +440 Denver looks good I think

 

[Dexter03]

I know but I'm saying is it better to take the +365 now instead of +3?
Because u can hedge if they get past this game

 

[memphis]

+2 +127:think2:

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

I know but I'm saying is it better to take the +365 now instead of +3?
Because u can hedge if they get past this game

I mean yea it is good value and if you plan on hedging out then why not. I would pound cardinals everything about them in the nfc championship. superbowl I donno yet.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

you could make it part of your wager but i'd be all over that +3 and +3.5 if u can get it

 

[memphis]

why wouldn't you be thinking that if they lose by 3 it's a push that if you get the three and a half then you win by but they could actually lose the game by a point and therein lies the value. + 2 + money theres where the value is maybe back it up with a plus three and a half or go all the way and take the money line if u think they win outright

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

I have a hard time seeing the logic of taking +2 in a conference championship game at + EV versus +3 at -105 or -110. Three is the most valuable key number in football.

Unless you are betting thousands on a game, the implied savings on (lost) vig falls way short on the improved number value of having +3. Gotta remember, if you win or push, the vig won't matter to you.

 

[memphis]

I have a hard time seeing the logic of taking +2 in a conference championship game at + EV versus +3 at -105 or -110. Three is the most valuable key number in football.

Unless you are betting thousands on a game, the implied savings on (lost) vig falls way short on the improved number value of having +3. Gotta remember, if you win or push, the vig won't matter to you.

yup we all don't bet thousands i forget that sometimes. majority doesnt. i see value in spreading wagers across the board. im also a big middler although playoffs never offer that opportunity up. if your think +3 wins... important wins, at 110 then opponent wins by 2? or 1? thus +3 covers at a value of 110? as a fg win or loss in the case of taking the dog is a push you can bypass the push with 3.5 or throw a few shekels on the +2 +25% against the dollar. jus sayin


Memphy

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Many folks had Broncos -6.5 and Steelers +7.5 and that tiny middle murdered the books.

Let's say you are betting $110/100 a game and you take +2.5 at +105 and you lose versus taking +3 -110 and it lands and it's a push.

so now you are down -$100 whereas you'd be sitting right at 0.

The question is now, how many +2.5 at +105 do you have to win to make up that lost full unit you are down? Looks to be 20 winning bets at +05 each time, no?

The value lost from +3 to +2.5 vastly outweighs the gain of a nickel + EV at +2.5 on a football game, let alone a conference championship when both teams will be giving full effort.

I have no problem with folks buying the hook at +3.5 or taking 1/4, 1/3, 1/2 your wager on the ML. That makes total sense. What doesn't make any logical sense to me is bypassing +3 -110 for +2.5 +105.

 

[memphis]

Many folks had Broncos -6.5 and Steelers +7.5 and that tiny middle murdered the books.

Let's say you are betting $110/100 a game and you take +2.5 at +105 and you lose versus taking +3 -110 and it lands and it's a push.

so now you are down -$100 whereas you'd be sitting right at 0.

The question is now, how many +2.5 at +105 do you have to win to make up that lost full unit you are down? Looks to be 20 winning bets at +05 each time, no?

The value lost from +3 to +2.5 vastly outweighs the gain of a nickel + EV at +2.5 on a football game, let alone a conference championship when both teams will be giving full effort.

Thankyou)(&

 

[Kaveman]

what are the chances arizona will lose by 1 or 2 pts? its next to none.

Far as frequency of games ending in 1 or 2, it's about 7.5% combined, split near evenly.