if you lay -110 you LOSE

[wilheim]

Welcome to the Rx, Paisan. I hope your experience here is not only enjoyable but profitable as well. If you need any assistance from TheRx.com moderators, please feel free to contact us.

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Best wishes for a happpy, healthy and profitable New Year, wilheim (aka wil.).

 

[quantumleap]

Paisan, thanks for doing the math. I would be interested in seeing it. I was too lazy to do it today. I was planning on doing it later however you saved me from having to do so.

 

[Doug]

Typo ? 52.38% should be even, not 53.38%.

 

[Doug]

Paisan: Good math, looks correct to me, except for typo. This proves a few things. You can beat -110 handily picking 55% with good money management, and a small starting stake. 55-56 % is hard to do long term. Any claims by touts of over 60% are ridiculous. 60% turns $1,000 into a billion + with 2,000 bets at 2% of BR. Of couse it's impossible to bet 20 million on a game, but you're filthy rich before you get that far.

Anybody have a link to Fezzik's article about 60%. The theory is his. It's more than theory, it's fact. The good news is it's easier with reduced juice, bonuses, free halves, etc. The bad news is they don't much matter after awhile. A free half on $500 means little on a 100k bet, which you will be making by hitting these percentages.

 

[Doug]

If you goggle Fezzik60%, you'll find it. I don't know how to cut and paste. It's a good read.

 

[heart222]

The math looks great but as we all know one of the problems is streaks. Do the numbers come out as well if you lose the first say 5 days going 1-2 type of thing and then start to win or what happens after a good month or two one goes cold for a month and has the same type of streak as the beginning posted above 1-2 etc. Happy new year to all

 

[Doug]

Order of W/L doesn't matter, at least the way Fezz wrote it.

 

[wilheim]

/////

 

[MrJ]

This is another totally incorrect thread. If you watch the volatility of line movement you'll see that at some point most lines have to be profitable one side or the other, easily enough to overcome -110. Books don't set perfect lines and they may not necessarily want to. Lines are just estimated probabilities based on limited information and interpretation. Plenty of room for error. What this thread should have said is that you shouldn't be betting at -110

 

[mr.inpak]

number one rule you must get reduced juice you have no chance laying -110

 

[RobFunk]

number one rule you must get reduced juice you have no chance laying -110

IT's getting more difficult these days, but ya you are right

 

[vyomguy]

ok

 

[vyomguy]

ok 1

 

[vyomguy]

ok 2

 

[vyomguy]

ok 3

 

[vyomguy]

ok4

 

[vyomguy]

ok5

 

[vyomguy]

ok6

 

[vyomguy]

ok7

 

[vyomguy]

ok8