Mathematically it makes sense to buy back at anything above 21.
Margin of 20 = 2.14% of all results
Margin of 21 = 3.58% of all results
Total % = 5.72
A 20-1 bet (assuming standard -110 juice) has a 5% chance of winning, which gives me a +EV wager.
Still not sure I would want to buy this back though. I bet some book will get me +23 by the end of the week.
Margin of 20 = 2.14% of all results
Margin of 21 = 3.58% of all results
Total % = 5.72
A 20-1 bet (assuming standard -110 juice) has a 5% chance of winning, which gives me a +EV wager.
Still not sure I would want to buy this back though. I bet some book will get me +23 by the end of the week.
UM: IU is a Look Ahead Game
Guys, you have not mentioned one BIG point. UM plays MSU following week in their titantic revenge-tilted game.
A) This could be a look ahead game.
B) If UM gets a cofortable lead, they will rest key players as much as they can in the 2nd half.
I bet 3 units on UM -19.5 and I only did it because IU sucks. IU might not have beat Akron if Jacquemain played and the WMU coach publicly confessed that the Broncos were awful against IU.
My plan is to middle back most of the above postion. Best regards, Rick Rock
Guys, you have not mentioned one BIG point. UM plays MSU following week in their titantic revenge-tilted game.
A) This could be a look ahead game.
B) If UM gets a cofortable lead, they will rest key players as much as they can in the 2nd half.
I bet 3 units on UM -19.5 and I only did it because IU sucks. IU might not have beat Akron if Jacquemain played and the WMU coach publicly confessed that the Broncos were awful against IU.
My plan is to middle back most of the above postion. Best regards, Rick Rock
Guys, don't get too carried away with unloading on Michigan, they are losing their value real quick. Keep in mind that in week one, Michigan was only favored by about 12 over Western Michigan. When Western Michigan went to IU, IU was favored over them by 3, which means Vegas had them rated roughly even with WMU at that time. Regardless of what the Western Michigan coach says, IU did outplay Western Michigan pretty handily in Bloomington. I think IU outgained them by over 80 yards if i recall.
So now you have to lay 21 against a team that is probably stronger than Western Michigan, when you were only laying 12 against Western Michigan in week one. This is what i mean by Michigan losing their value quickly. The object of this game is to buy low, not buy an expensive product.
Best of luck...
So now you have to lay 21 against a team that is probably stronger than Western Michigan, when you were only laying 12 against Western Michigan in week one. This is what i mean by Michigan losing their value quickly. The object of this game is to buy low, not buy an expensive product.
Best of luck...
If I played a team it would be Ohio State. They haven't let up a point in 2 games. This has the look of a 35-3 game. I think our coaching staff is intimidated by Ohio State, the number looks very low (was -16 yesterday), and we will have difficulty stopping them from running.
However this IU team seems genuinely focused and pissed after last week's stolen victory. I am not touching this game.
Stolen Vicory???? Let's Not Get Carried Away
It looked like simultaneous possession from my TV set. But even if called that way Indiana was still in their own territory and a long way from winning the game. Spoken like a true IU fan, I guess. THANKS for input on sportsdatabase.com. Best regards, Rick Rock
It looked like simultaneous possession from my TV set. But even if called that way Indiana was still in their own territory and a long way from winning the game. Spoken like a true IU fan, I guess. THANKS for input on sportsdatabase.com. Best regards, Rick Rock
